San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams Picks, Props & Betting Odds (Week 5)

• The Rams are big home favorites over the injury-riddled 49ers on TNF
• San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog and 1-13 ATS in the last 14 against winning teams
• See the 49ers vs Rams picks, predictions, props, and betting odds for Week 5 (Oct. 2)

An intense NFC West rivalry is renewed on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 as the Los Angeles Rams (3-1, 2-0 home, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U) host the San Francisco 49ers (3-1, 2-0 away, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U) SoFi Stadium in Inglewood in a battle with early divisional implications. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:15 pm ET/8:15 pm ET.

Niners QB Brock Purdy returned from a two-game absence in Week 4, throwing for over 300 yards in a 26-21 road loss at Jacksonville. He reportedly reinjured that toe that kept him out of Weeks 2 and 3, though, and is officially listed as questionable to start on TNF. He didn’t practice on Monday or Tuesday.

The uncertainty around the 49er pivot as led to the 49ers vs Rams odds moving towards the home team. LA opened as a 3.5-point favorite and that number has steamed up to a full touchdown at most sportsbooks.

The latest 49ers vs Rams odds can be found at the tail-end of this article.

Jump to: SF vs LAR Picks || SF vs LAR Props || SF vs LAR Odds

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams Picks & Prediction

• Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-120) at ESPN
• Under 46.5 (-102) at FanDuel

The evidence overwhelmingly points toward the Rams not only winning but also covering the touchdown spread, which bettors can still get at 6.5 at some books. The most glaring factor is the trench warfare, where the Rams’ defensive line holds a monumental advantage over the 49ers’ beleaguered offensive line, which has two players on IR and another suspended. Still anchored by future Hall-of-Fame left tackle Trent Williams, things could be worse along the Niner O-line, but they are a pedestrian 12th in pass-block win rate after four weeks and an ugly 26th in run-block win rate.

With 14 sacks on the season, the Rams’ pass rush is poised to disrupt Brock Purdy (or Mac Jones) all night, forcing him into hurried throws and potential turnovers. The 49ers’ have a -5 turnover differential, a statistic that could get worse against a defense that excels at creating pressure.

On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford has been surgical, and he’s protected by an offensive line that ranks in the 11th in pass-block win rate and has the good fortune of facing a shorthanded San Francisco pass rush; Nick Bosa, who has two of the team’s meager five-sack total on the season, is already on IR with a torn ACL. Stafford should have time to pick apart a 49ers secondary that has not generated a single interception this season.

The Rams have also been incredibly reliable for bettors, posting a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. The 49ers, meanwhile, are an alarming 1-13 ATS against teams with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six as an underdog, trends that are too strong to ignore.

For the total, the under 46.5 is the stronger play. The Rams’ defense is allowing just 20.3 points per game, and the under has cashed in their last five home games as a favorite. Combined with the 49ers’ offensive line issues, it’s hard to see them putting up enough points to push this game over the total. The Rams will control the clock and rely on their defense to secure a comfortable win.

SF 49ers vs LA Rams Player Props

NFL player props as of Oct. 1 at BetMGM.

Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop of 238.5 is set significantly below his season average of 278.5 yards per game, making the over an attractive play against a 49ers defense that has been susceptible through the air. Brock Purdy’s line is 237.5, a number he has surpassed in three of four games, but he faces a much tougher test against a Rams defense allowing only 186 passing yards per game, not to mention the lingering concerns over his toe injury.

Kyren Williams faces a rushing prop of 67.5 yards against a 49ers defense giving up over 115 yards per game on the ground, suggesting value on the over. Puka Nacua’s receiving line is a lofty 96.5, reflecting his massive target share and production.

For the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing prop is set at 57.5 yards. While low for a player of his caliber, it reflects the team’s struggles in the run game and a tough matchup against the Rams’ front seven.

Best SF vs LAR Prop Pick: Stafford Over 232.5 Yards

Stafford’s passing-yards line is six yards lower at FanDuel than it is at BetMGM, which is a bigger discrepancy than you usually see. I liked the over at BetMGM and am very bullish on the lower number at FanDuel. Stafford is going to have ample time in the pocket and has developed arguably a league-best chemistry with Nacua, who has an NFL-high 503 receiving yards after just four weeks.

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams Odds

As mentioned at the top, the spread and moneyline have moved significantly towards the Rams over the last few days. The best LA moneyline is now -325, which amounts to a 76.47% implied win probability, while the 49ers’ +270 odds carry just a 27.03% implied win probability.

The total sits at 46.5 across the board, which is up three full points from the opening line of 43.5. Both teams are 2-2 O/U through four weeks.