Anthony Richardson Still Favored to Be Colts Week 1 Starter Despite Injury News

• Anthony Richardson carries -156 odds to start Week 1 for the Colts despite missing minicamp with a shoulder injury
• Daniel Jones has taken all first-team reps in Richardson’s absence and sits at +118
• Below, see why the former fourth overall pick remains favored and whether Jones can steal the job

There’s an old saying in the NFL: the best ability is availability. Anthony Richardson hasn’t gotten that memo. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback will miss mandatory minicamp with a shoulder injury after reaggravating the same AC joint that cost him 12 games in 2023. Yet somehow, online sportsbooks still favor Richardson to be under center come Week 1.

The former Florida Gator carries -156 odds to win the starting job, while Daniel Jones—who inked a one-year, $14 million deal this offseason—sits at +118. Those odds imply Richardson has about a 61% chance of starting despite missing just 19 of a possible 34 games through two seasons. I’m not buying it.

Odds to Start Week 1 for Colts

Richardson’s -156 price makes him a modest favorite, with Jones offering real value at plus money. The rookie Leonard is a lottery ticket at +5500, and you can ignore his chances entirely. This is a two-horse race, and one of those horses keeps coming up lame.

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Anthony Richardson Injury Update

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Richardson can’t stay healthy. Since being drafted fourth overall in 2023—the Colts’ highest selection since Andrew Luck—he’s been a walking medical report. The latest shoulder setback adds to a laundry list that includes a concussion, oblique injury, season-ending AC joint surgery, and back spasms so severe he couldn’t stand or walk.

Head coach Shane Steichen says he’s “optimistic” Richardson will be ready for training camp on July 22nd, but we’ve heard this song before. The 22-year-old has started just 15 games across two seasons, completing a league-worst 47.7% of his passes in 2024. When your franchise quarterback has more games missed (19) than started (15), that’s not a development curve—it’s a flatline.

Even when healthy, Richardson’s performance hasn’t justified the faith. His 67.8 passer rating ranks among the league’s worst, and he’s thrown 13 interceptions against just 11 touchdowns. Yes, his rushing ability is elite—635 yards and 10 touchdowns showcase his dual-threat potential—but you can’t run your way to a playoff berth when you’re watching from the trainer’s table.

Jones Gaining Ground to be Colts’ Starting QB

While Richardson rehabs another injury, Jones is seizing his opportunity. The former Giants quarterback has taken all first-team reps since Richardson went down, and early reports from OTAs paint an intriguing picture. Jones completed 11 of 12 passes in 7-on-7 drills, showing the accuracy and consistency that Richardson lacks.

At 28, Jones isn’t anyone’s long-term answer. But he doesn’t need to be. The Colts just need someone who can take snaps for 17 games and keep them competitive in a winnable AFC South. Jones brings 71 career starts worth of experience, and while his Giants tenure ended poorly, he’s proven he can at least stay upright—something Richardson hasn’t managed.

NFL insider Albert Breer predicted before the injury that Jones would win the job, citing Richardson’s inconsistency and durability concerns. With Richardson now sidelined indefinitely and Jones building chemistry with the first-team offense, that prediction looks increasingly prophetic.

Why Bet on Jones to be Colts’ Week 1 Starter

General Manager Chris Ballard hasn’t minced words about the AR situation, stating bluntly: “He hasn’t demonstrated that he can play a full 17-game season.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for your supposed franchise quarterback.

The Colts brought in Jones for exactly this scenario. They needed competition and insurance, and Richardson’s latest injury validates both needs. While the organization remains publicly committed to Richardson’s development, actions speak louder than words. You don’t pay a veteran $14 million to hold a clipboard.

Richardson’s immense physical tools—6-foot-4, 244 pounds, 4.43 speed—will always tantalize. But potential doesn’t win games in September. With Richardson’s return timeline murky and Jones impressing with the starters, the veteran offers tremendous value at +118. The best ability remains availability, and only one of these quarterbacks has proven he possesses it.

• Colts Starter Pick: Daniel Jones (+118)