NFL Backup QBs Starting Week 3 – How Bengals, Commanders & Vikings Odds Shift

• Five backup quarterbacks will start games in Week 3
• Cincy’s Jake Browning is 4-3 as a starter filling in for Joe Burrow
• See all the backup QBs starting in Week 3, and how the Bengals, Commanders, Vikings, Jets and 49ers odds have shifted

We’re all familiar with Revenge of the Nerds. Well, Week 3 in the NFL might as well be labelled Revenge of the Backups. Five second-stringers will be asked to lead their teams to victory on Sunday, two of which will be trying to accomplish the feat for a second straight week.

Typically there’s a massive shift in the NFL odds when a starter is announced out, and Week 3 is no exception. Spreads and totals are moving like crazy, so the question now becomes which one of these backups can you trust with your wallet?

NFL Backup QBs Starting Week 3

With these five backup quarterbacks set to take the field, let’s examine exactly how oddsmakers have adjusted the lines and where the betting value lies.

NFL Week 3 Odds Shift

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As of Saturday, the Bengals, Vikings, Jets, Commanders and 49ers will all feature back QBs starting Week 3. Oddsmakers have reacted the harshest to Washington’s situation, as they believe the downgrade from Jayden Daniels to Marcus Mariota is the biggest hurdle for any of these teams to overcome. The Commanders have gone from 6.5-point favorites to -3, while the total in their game with the Raiders has fallen 4 points.

The Cincinnati vs Minnesota contest will pit two NFL backup QB’s against each other in Jake Browning and Carson Wentz. Browning has plenty of experience in this role, having started seven games for Joe Burrow in the past. Wentz meanwhile, has started twice in the last two seasons, both in meaningless Week 17 games.

Back Browning and the Bengals

Of all the NFL backup quarterbacks in Week 3, I trust Browning the most. Sportsbooks seem to agree, as the spread in the Bengals vs Vikings matchup was moving towards Cincinnati even before J.J. McCarthy was ruled out.

Browning is 4-3 as a starter in Cincy, and rest assured fantasy owners, he can support Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Browning threw 43 TD in a season in college, and was a Heisman Trophy contender. He has a career 71.5% completion percentage, the third highest of any QB in their first seven starts.

The 29-year-old was a top-10 fantasy QB in five of the final six weeks in 2023, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. Chase went for 11 catches, 149 yards and a TD in one of those starts, while Higgins averages more touchdowns per game with Browning than with Burrow.

From an NFL player props perspective, I believe there’s value on Chase. His receiving yards prop is down to 69.5, 13 yards lower than last week. He and Higgins dominate the Cincy target share, and the Bengals were second in pass rate over expectation during Browning’s previous seven starts.

As for the Wentz-Justin Jefferson connection, all hope is also not lost. Jefferson put up multiple 140+ receiving yard games with backup Nick Mullens in 2023. He’ll have favorable matchup against a weak Cincinnati secondary, and Wentz should be able to get him the ball. Wentz is just 27-38 against the spread as a starter since 2018, however, which is another reason to back the Bengals side.

Fade the Marcus Mariota’s Commanders

One NFL backup to fade is Mariota. Washington was already struggling to produce offensively, and that was with a potential NFL MVP odds dark horse in Daniels. Yes, Mariota does have 75 career starts under his belt, but he’s been a declining asset for years. The last time he was a starter, he ranked 25th in the NFL in expected points added per play + completion percentage over expectation. He performed well last season in his lone start, but that was against Carolina’s league-worst defense.

In a perfect world, the Commanders would take the pressure off Mariota and lean on the ground game. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look feasible against Las Vegas. The Raiders are yielding only 3.2 yards per rush this season. Las Vegas is also above average in pressure rate and blitz percentage, meaning Mariota should be under constant duress.

As for Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook, a change at QB might be a welcome sight. McLaurin has just 7 catches for 75 yards with Daniels this season, but was peppered by Mariota in 2024. In his one and half games playing with Mariota, McLaurin had 14 catches, for 160 yards and a TD.

Trust Taylor and Jones

Last, but not least, sportsbooks believe you can trust Tyrod Taylor and Mac Jones, and I agree. Let’s start with Taylor, who’s top-five all-time among qualified QB’s in interception rate. He’s also been a cover machine as a starter. Taylor has a career 61% record against the spread as a starter, and has covered in 70% of instances where his team has been catching at least 6 points. The Jets vs Bucs spread has moved slightly in Tampa Bay’s favor since the Jets QB depth chart was announced, but that has a lot to do with the Bucs 2-0 start.

Taylor won’t elevate the New York skill position players, sorry Garrett Wilson fantasy owners, but he will take care of the football and avoid sacks. The matchup is prime for a Jets upset, as Tampa Bay is decimated by injuries, especially on offense. Take the 6.5 points with New York, and consider a sprinkle on their moneyline.

As for Jones, he started last week and led the 49ers to a victory. Jones threw for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns as the 49ers improved to 2-0. The Brock Purdy injury is unfortunate, but Kyle Shanahan has proven many times he can win with backups.

With Jones under center, Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy outlook remains positive. C-Mac had 19 touches and a touchdown last week, including 6 catches for 52 yards. McCaffrey remains the focal point of the offense and a top-3 fantasy RB.

It also doesn’t hurt Jones’ streaming potential that the Arizona defense is a mess. They just surrendered a massive 328-yard, 3 TD performance to Bryce Young, and the secondary is down multiple bodies. The 49ers have gone from 1.5-point underdogs early in the week to now 2.5-point favorites despite the assumption that Jones would play all along. Trust the steam and back San Fran.