NFL DROY Odds – Abdul Carter Now a Sizeable Favorite Over Jalon Walker and Travis Hunter
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Abdul Carter’s DROY odds have been shortened from +400 to +250 since Draft night
- Denver corner Jahdae Barron offers great value at +1800
- Below, see the updated NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
Rookie development camps have begun around the NFL, meaning it’s time to see how the awards markets have shifted since the 2025 NFL Draft. We’re focusing on the Defensive Rookie of the Year category, where third-overall pick Abdul Carter continues to hold pole position on the board.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Carter’s NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds have been shortened from +400 prior to Draft night, to +250. That gives him an implied probability of 28.57% to win the award, which seems outrageously high. Jalon Walker is the second choice at +1000, while Travis Hunter is next at +1200.Â
Hunter is expected to spend the majority of his rookie campaign on offense, a fact that oddsmakers have refused to price in. He’s an easy fade in this market, but given his talent and the scarcity of unicorn receiver prospects this year, it’s not hard to make a case for him in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds market.
Abdul Carter Stock Continues to Rise
We’ll start with Carter, as he has some history on his side. Five of the last six defensive rookie of the year winners have been pass rushers, including last year’s recipient Jared Verse.
Carter will be a focal point of what projects to be a very good Giants front seven. With Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns playing alongside him, he’s bound to draw plenty of one-on-one matchups. Given his 66 pressures and 94.2 pass rush grade in his final year at Penn State, that should lead to a lot of sack opportunities.
PFF’s Rookie Pass Rush Rankings
Nevertheless, the price is too short given how many mouths there are to feed on that defense. Carter can still be a tremendously effective player in year 1, without racking up the counting stats needed to compete for this award. I’m fading him based on price, not talent, and looking for players with longer odds who are in an equally strong position to succeed.
Jahdae Barron is the Best Value
My favorite of those is new Broncos defensive back Jahdae Barron. This is a player who was soaring up Draft boards late in the process, and was a surprise to last all the way to Denver at pick 20.
Barron led all Power Four defensive backs with a 91.1 coverage grade per Pro Football Focus. He finished the season with 5 interceptions and 9 pass break-ups for Texas, helping them form one of the nation’s best pass defenses.
He won the Jim Thorpe Award in 2024 as the nation’s top DB, and will have plenty of opportunities to make plays in Year 1. That’s because he’ll be lining up on the other side of Patrick Surtain, arguably the best corner in the league. Enemy QB’s rarely test Surtain, meaning Barron will see plenty of action in Year 1.
He currently boasts +1800 odds to win the DROY award, which carries a 5.2% probability. Given his skillset and situation, I think if we simulated the entire 2025 season 100 times, he wins this award at a much higher rate. Pass rushers may have dominated this market in recent history, but it’s worth noting three of the last four non-pass rushers to win this award since 2015 were corners.
Will Johnson Is an Intriguing Longshot
Sticking with corners, I also love the value on Arizona’s Will Johnson at +2800. That price gives him a 3.4% chance of winning DROY, which is more than fair given his pedigree.
Johnson was a top-15 player on most Draft pundits boards, and in the conversation as the top corner in the class.. He was the 2024 National Championship Game defensive MVP, and racked up 4 INT, 4 pass deflections and a pick-six in his last full collegiate season.
Knee concerns caused his slide in the Draft, but he landed in an ideal situation. The Cardinals cornerback room is bare, meaning Johnson can step in right away and make a serious impact.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
