NFL Picks & Best Bets for Saturday, Aug 9

• Eight NFL preseason games are on the Saturday schedule, and we’ve got several best bets
• Sharp money already moved the Cowboys from +1.5 to -1.5 after McVay confirmed he’s sitting all Rams starters
• Check out my three best bets based on confirmed playing time decisions and weather factors

Preseason football is back, and Saturday’s eight-game slate offers the first real chance to profit from coaching mismatches and roster depth. After going through the latest camp reports and starter announcements, three games jump off the page with clear betting value.

Sean McDermott’s Bills host Brian Daboll’s Giants at 1 PM in what looks like a classic preseason mismatch. Later, we get Sean McVay doing his annual “sit everyone” routine against a Cowboys team looking to establish culture under Brian Schottenheimer. Mix in Mike Tomlin resting 15 starters against the Jaguars, and we’ve got opportunities all over the board.

The table below shows the three NFL preseason bets I’ve locked in for Saturday, followed by analysis underneath.

Saturday’s NFL Preseason Best Bets

Each of these plays takes advantage of a specific edge – whether it’s coaching tendencies, playing time gaps, or weather conditions. Let me break down why these three bets offer the strongest value on a loaded Saturday card.

Odds as of August 8, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out NFL betting apps to wager on the preseason.

Giants vs Bills Pick

McDermott simply owns the preseason. The guy’s 66.7% ATS in August games because he treats them like they matter. Mitch Trubisky starts with Buffalo’s offensive starters getting roughly one quarter of work. That’s a structured plan from a coach who uses preseason to establish physicality.

Compare that to Daboll’s situation in New York. The Giants got outscored 68-6 in their last two preseason openers. Daboll’s sitting on a 1-6 ATS preseason record over two years. Now he’s rolling out rookie Jaxson Dart alongside Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston – three quarterbacks who’ve never taken a snap in this offense.

The depth gap is massive, too. Buffalo’s got a set roster with defined roles. The Giants? They’re still figuring out if Wilson can beat out Winston for the starting job. In the preseason, organization beats talent every time.

Weather’s perfect in Buffalo – mid-80s with light winds. No excuses, no equalizers. Just McDermott’s machine against Daboll’s uncertainty.

• Pick: Bills -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Cowboys vs Rams Pick

This line movement tells the whole story. Cowboys opened +1.5 and got bet all the way to –1.5 favorites. That’s sharp money recognizing what McVay does every August – absolutely nothing with his starters.

McVay already confirmed Matthew Stafford won’t play. Neither will Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, or any defensive starter. The Rams’ offense got crushed in Tuesday’s joint practice against Dallas, and now those same third-stringers face Cowboys backups who actually want to make the team.

Schottenheimer’s making his head coaching debut. He needs to establish culture immediately. Joe Milton III gets extended run at quarterback after showing a rocket arm in camp. The Rams counter with Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett behind a patchwork offensive line.

McVay’s preseason record speaks volumes: 9-15 straight up. He saves his bullets for games that count. Meanwhile, Dallas has actual position battles to sort out and a new coach trying to make a statement.

• Pick: Cowboys ML (-135 at DraftKings)

Steelers vs Jaguars Pick

Tomlin’s sitting 15 starters, including Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and Cameron Heyward. Mason Rudolph leads a Steelers offense missing its top three quarterbacks from the depth chart. That’s not a recipe for points.

Yeah, Liam Coen said “everybody’s going to play” for Jacksonville. But he also said it’ll be “a couple series” max for Trevor Lawrence and the starters. Travis Hunter gets his two-way debut, but two drives won’t move this total.

Jacksonville weather adds another under angle. It’s humid with a 40% chance of thunderstorms at kickoff. Backup quarterbacks plus potential rain equals ugly football.

Historical data backs it up. Preseason games average 34.9 total points, way below regular-season scoring. Week 1 is always the sloppiest as teams shake off rust. Tomlin’s defensive focus and both teams’ prioritizing evaluation over execution make this total inflated.

• Pick: Under 37.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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J.J. McCarthy’s Vikings return dominates headlines at 4 PM, but Minnesota’s just a 3-point favorite despite Houston likely sitting DeMeco Ryans’ defensive starters. Patrick Mahomes plays one quarter against Arizona at 8 PM, though Andy Reid’s 33-37-1 ATS preseason record makes that one tricky.

The three plays above offer the cleanest edges. McDermott’s preseason dominance, McVay’s refusal to compete, and Tomlin’s veteran rest plan create clear advantages the market hasn’t fully adjusted for.

Tail these picks and let’s start the preseason in the green.