Saints’ NFL Futures Odds After Carr Retires – Shough a Legit OROY Candidate?
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Derek Carr has announced his retirement after 11 NFL seasons
- His departure opens the door for second-round rookie QB Tyler Shough to earn serious playing time
- Below, see the Saints updated NFL Futures odds, plus find out if Shough is a legit OROY candidate
Oddsmakers weren’t high on the Saints prior to Derek Carr’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Upon the news, it’s clear they’re even less bullish on the other New Orleans QB options.
The Saints now boast some of the longest NFL futures odds across all the major markets. One look at their roster and it’s easy to see why. This team is lacking top-end talent on both sides of the ball, and have a major question mark at the most important position in sports.
New Orleans Saints 2025 NFL Futures
New Orleans’ 2025 Super Bowl odds have cratered to +25000. That’s tied with the Browns for the longest odds in the league, while the Saints also boast the longest price tag to win the NFC at 130-1.
New Orleans’ +1000 NFL Divisional odds are two and half times longer than any other NFC South team, while they’re a massive underdog to make the playoffs.
Saints NFL Futures Bets
- Under 4.5 wins (+180)
It’s impossible to wager a cent on New Orleans as a longshot in any of the major futures markets. This is a team that is going to finally have to pay the piper. For years, they’ve resisted the need to rebuild. They’ve drafted poorly and tried to fill their holes in free agency.
In today’s NFL, that’s a losing strategy. That explains why they haven’t tasted an ounce of success since Drew Brees and Sean Payton left, and why it’s been five years since they played in the postseason.
2024 must have been a wake-up call. After roaring out to a 2-0 start, they went 3-12 the rest of the way. They looked old and slow on defense, and the offense didn’t have a pulse once Chris Olave suffered his second concussion of the season.
Carr’s retirement is a blessing in disguise. Now they can start an actual rebuild, bottoming out to acquire more talent in next year’s Draft. The lack of any expectations will give them time to develop second-round rookie QB Tyler Shough. The 26-year-old can sit for a handful of weeks behind either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, and then take his lumps for the second half of the season.
That experience will set him up for success next season, with hopefully a deeper roster in place. This season, however, is going to be ugly. Rattler and Haener ranked 57th and 59th among 63 QB’s in EPA per drop back last season. New Orleans’ offense was bottom-10 in both total yards and scoring, while their defense ranked in the bottom-third in nearly every major category.
We should expect wins to be few and far between, which is why I’m betting under 4.5 victories at +180 odds. The Saints are going to be one of the worst teams in the league, and what little talent they do have will be trade bait later in the season, just like Marshon Lattimore was in 2024.
Shough’s OROY Candidacy
Back to Shough now, and the question on Saints fans minds is does he have what it takes to be a contender in the NFL OROY odds? He currently boasts the fifth shortest odds in that market, but the names in front of him are all significantly more talented and in a better position to succeed.
Ashton Jeanty, Cam Ward, Travis Hunter and Omarion Hampton will be focal points on their new teams from Day 1. Shough on the other hand, has to not only win the starting QB job, but then excel with inferior talent around him.
Top-5 QB’s Drafted in 2025
There are red flags with Shough, and I’m not talking just about the numerous injuries he suffered in college. Find me one year of prolific collegiate production. You can’t. He never threw more than 23 TD passes in a season, and he exceeded 13 touchdown throws only once. Did I mention that was over six college seasons with three different teams?
Shough completed more than 63% of his passes in only one of those campaigns, and exceeded 1,600 passing yards just once as well. He was literally a man playing against boys, and still didn’t sniff elite status. If you can’t put up award-winning production at the collegiate level, good luck producing against the most dominant freaks of nature on the planet. Maybe Shough can be a competent starter, but he won’t be challenging for any awards in Year 1.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
