Leafs vs Blue Jackets Prediction, Pick & Starting Goalies for Wednesday Night Hockey

• The Blue Jackets are -115 moneyline favorites over the Maple Leafs on Wednesday, October 29th
• Toronto is 0-2 on the road while Columbus has won four of their last five
• See my Leafs vs Blue Jackets prediction below, plus odds and starting goalies

The NHL gives us a solo act Wednesday night with the Blue Jackets (5-4-0, 8-1 ATS) hosting the Maple Leafs (5-4-1, 9-1 ATS) at Nationwide Arena. Both teams played Tuesday night, both won tight games, and now they’re running on fumes. That usually means goals and bad defense.

Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, with NHL Network carrying the broadcast across the United States.

Here is my Leafs vs Blue Jackets prediction, along with NHL betting odds and starting goalies.

Leafs vs Blue Jackets Prediction

I’m backing Columbus at -115 on the moneyline, as well as playing the Over 6.5 goals. Toronto hasn’t won on the road (0-2), and they’re starting backup netminder Cayden Primeau (.875 SV%) after playing in Calgary the night prior.

The Leafs have been living off unsustainable shooting luck. They’re converting at 12.37% at 5v5 while getting badly outplayed. Their Corsi sits at 40.08%, meaning they’re getting caved in nightly but somehow winning games. That will stop eventually, and backup goalies on the road are usually when it happens.

5v5 Advanced Stats This Season

Columbus actually outplays their opponents most nights. Their 48.73% Corsi and 45.09% expected goals percentage both beat Toronto’s numbers significantly. They’ve been unlucky shooting just 4.48% at 5v5, but Miles Wood’s return sparked them Tuesday with two goals, including the OT winner in Buffalo.

The fatigue factor favors Columbus, too. They played in Buffalo and got to sleep at home. Toronto grinded out a 4-3 win over Calgary, then had to travel to Columbus. Primeau faces his first road start behind a tired defense that already ranks 27th in goals against per game (3.60). This is a tough spot for the visitors.

TOR vs CBJ Season Stats/Ranks

Columbus owns the worst penalty kill in hockey at 63.3%, but Toronto’s power play ranks 27th at 14.8%. Something’s gotta give there. I’d rather bet on the team at home with momentum than the road team that can’t score with the man advantage.

Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko both have nine points to lead Columbus. They’re getting balanced scoring with contributions from Wood, Boone Jenner, and Adam Fantilli. Toronto relies heavily on William Nylander (15 points) and John Tavares, who sits one goal shy of 500 for his career. Milestone watches usually end badly for bettors.

The situational factors all point toward Columbus. They’re home, they’ve got momentum, they control play better than Toronto, and they’re catching the Leafs in a terrible schedule spot.

I also like the over 6.5 at -115 as a secondary play. Both teams are tired, Columbus can’t kill penalties (63.3%), and Primeau’s save percentage invites goals. Toronto’s last eight games have averaged 7.4 total goals. When backup goalies meet tired defenses, scoring usually follows.

Leafs vs Blue Jackets Odds

Columbus opened as -115 home favorites with Toronto at -105, basically a coin flip. The total sits at 6.5, with the over juiced slightly to -115. On the puckline, Columbus -1.5 pays a nice +210, while Toronto +1.5 is heavily juiced at -260.

Odds as of Oct. 29, 2025 at 2:00 pm ET at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out our top NHL betting apps for Wednesday Night Hockey.

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The Blue Jackets vs Leafs matchup historically favors Columbus at home, as they’re 14-6 all-time against Toronto at Nationwide Arena.

Toronto’s road struggles are real. They’ve been outscored 10-6 in two road losses, failing to cover either spread. Columbus is just 1-3 at home, but they’re due for positive regression based on their shot share and scoring chance numbers.

Blue Jackets vs Leafs Starting Goalies

Elvis Merzlikins gets the nod for Columbus after Jet Greaves played Tuesday. Elvis sits at 3-1-0 with a 2.96 GAA and .915 save percentage. He’s been their best player and the main reason they’re not sitting at the bottom of the Metro Division.

Cayden Primeau starts for Toronto on the back end of the back-to-back. His numbers are rough: 3.46 GAA and .875 save percentage through two starts. That’s a massive drop from Anthony Stolarz (.938 save percentage), who played Tuesday. The Leafs need elite goaltending to win with their poor possession numbers, and Primeau doesn’t provide it.

Tonight’s Goaltending Matchup

Merzlikins has actually been solid against Toronto historically despite some rough outings. Meanwhile, Primeau faces a Columbus offense that just exploded for four goals and has been due for better puck luck all season.