Oilers vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Bet – Game 4 Stanley Cup Final

• We’ve made our Oilers vs Panthers prediction for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final
• Florida leads 2-1 after a dominant 6-1 victory in Game 3
• Read below for my Oilers vs Panthers prediction and betting pick for Game 4

The Edmonton Oilers face a must-win Game 4 at Amerant Bank Arena on Thursday night, needing to avoid falling into a dangerous 3-1 series hole. After Monday’s 6-1 disaster that saw 140 penalty minutes and a complete loss of composure, the Oilers must regroup quickly.

Online sportsbooks have installed Florida as -150 favorites, but I’m targeting the total in the Oilers vs Panthers odds. Puck drop is set for 8:00 PM ET on TNT, with Edmonton desperately needing to tie the series before heading home.

Let’s get into my Oilers vs Panthers prediction and best bet for Game 4.

Oilers vs Prediction for Game 4

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Monday’s Game 3 was ugly from the start. The Oilers allowed Brad Marchand to score just 56 seconds into the game and never recovered, eventually succumbing to a parade of penalties and undisciplined play. The 140 combined penalty minutes marked the fourth-most in Stanley Cup history, not exactly the blueprint for success.

The 5-on-5 play tells a different story than the scoreboard suggests. Edmonton actually holds a slight edge in expected goals (50.51% xGF%) and high-danger chances (51.52% HDCF%). The problem? They’re shooting just 4.30% at even strength while Florida converts at 10.39%.

The goaltending gap has been massive. Sergei Bobrovsky sports a ridiculous .957 save percentage at 5-on-5, while Stuart Skinner sits at .896. However, Skinner owns an impressive 6-0 record with a .955 save percentage in Game 4s during his playoff career, a situational trend worth noting.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were both held pointless in Game 3, the first time that’s happened all playoffs. Expect a response from Edmonton’s superstars, but more importantly, expect a more disciplined approach from the entire roster.

Oilers vs Panthers Series 5v5 Stats

Only 12 total goals have been scored at 5-on-5 through three games. The inflated scores have come from eight power-play goals, one shorthanded tally, and an empty-netter. When these teams play at even strength, scoring has been at a premium.

Kris Knoblauch had made a lineup change, with Troy Stecher replacing John Klingberg on defense. This should stabilize Edmonton’s back end and reunite the effective Darnell Nurse-Stecher pairing that’s worked well this postseason.

Oilers vs Panthers Best Bet

• Under 6.5 Total Goals (-125 at Bet99)

Despite all three games soaring over the total, the sharp money is pounding the under. The line has moved from -115 to -125, even with 91% of bets on the over. This is a classic reverse line movement indicating professional action.

Both coaches will demand smarter, more disciplined play after Monday’s penalty parade. Fewer power plays mean fewer high-percentage scoring chances. The Panthers have hit the under in 28 of their last 52 home games, while Edmonton has done so in 29 of their last 54 road contests.

With Bobrovsky’s elite form (.928 save percentage, +17.49 GSAx over his last 12 starts) and Skinner’s historical Game 4 excellence, we’re set up for a tighter-checking affair. The 5-on-5 numbers suggest these teams generate roughly 5.6 expected goals combined – well under the 6.5 threshold.

Oilers vs Panthers Odds Game 4

The Panthers opened as -135 favorites but have been bet up to -150. The total remains at 6.5, but sharp action has pushed the under from -115 to -125.

Florida’s current moneyline price implies they have a 60% chance of winning Game 4 and going up 3-1 in the series. Conversely, Edmonton’s +125 underdog tag gives them a 44% implied probability to even the series.

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Odds as of June 12th at Bet99. Edmonton residents can bet on this game with the Bet99 promo code. US residents should check out NHL betting apps.

According to the NHL public betting trends, the majority of bettors are chasing the over after three straight high-scoring games. But when the public zigs, smart money often zags. The line movement tells the real story – professionals are betting this game stays under the total.

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