Stanley Cup Odds After Free Agency: See Winners & Losers

• Vegas Golden Knights surge from +1200 to +883 after landing Mitch Marner
• Florida Panthers strengthen Cup favorite status despite keeping expensive core
• Below, see how all 32 teams’ Stanley Cup odds shifted as the free agency dust settles

NHL free agency is winding down, and the betting markets have spoken. Some teams made power moves that caught oddsmakers’ attention, while others watched their championship dreams drift further away.

DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM have all adjusted their Stanley Cup futures based on the roster changes from the past week. The salary cap jump to $95.5 million created opportunities, but not every team capitalized.

Let’s break down which franchises improved their NHL championship odds and which ones are heading in the wrong direction.

Stanley Cup Odds Movement: All 32 Teams

Stanley Cup odds comparison from June 23 (pre-free agency) to current average odds at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. Teams sorted by percentage change. Negative percentages indicate improved odds (more likely to win), positive percentages indicate longer odds (less likely to win).

The Mitch Marner Effect

No team saw bigger movement than the Golden Knights. Their odds plummeted from +1200 to +883, representing a jump from 7.69% to 10.17% implied probability. That’s a massive 2.48% increase in championship likelihood according to the betting markets.

The reason? Landing Mitch Marner via sign-and-trade changes everything for Vegas. They added a 102-point scorer to an already dangerous lineup featuring Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl. The Golden Knights didn’t just get better. They got championship better.

Marner gives Vegas something they’ve never had: an elite two-way winger who can drive play at even strength and dominate on special teams. His playoff struggles in Toronto won’t matter as much in a Vegas locker room filled with Stanley Cup winners who know how to handle pressure.

Panthers Keep Rolling Despite Big Contracts

The defending champs saw their odds improve from +700 to +625 after pulling off what seemed impossible. Bill Zito retained Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Brad Marchand when most expected at least one to walk.

Florida’s now the consensus Cup favorite across all books. The Panthers proved that winning trumps everything. Players took less money to chase a threepeat, and the betting markets responded accordingly. Their 13.79% implied probability leads all teams.

Sure, those contracts for Bennett and Marchand might look rough in a few years. But who cares? The Panthers are built to win now, and oddsmakers recognize they kept their championship core intact while other contenders got weaker.

Toronto’s Odds Improve Despite Losing Marner

Here’s the surprise: the Maple Leafs actually saw their odds shorten from +2133 to +1800 after trading away their 102-point winger. The betting markets seem to believe that getting something back (Nicolas Roy) and having cap flexibility outweighs losing Marner.

Toronto’s implied probability jumped from 4.48% to 5.26%. Maybe oddsmakers think the Leafs will use their remaining $5 million in cap space to add another impact player via trade. Or perhaps they believe addition by subtraction applies here, with Toronto’s playoff failures necessitating major changes.

John Tavares signing for $4.4 million AAV helps too. That’s elite value for a second-line center, even if he’s on the decline. Brad Treliving has work left to do, but the markets are giving him credit for maneuvering a difficult situation.

Biggest NHL Free Agency Losers

Edmonton Oilers Drop Despite Cup Finals Run

The Oilers went from +700 to +833, seeing their implied probability fall from 12.50% to 10.72%. That’s a significant 1.78% drop for a team that just pushed Florida to seven games in the Stanley Cup Final.

Why the pessimism? Edmonton lost too much depth. Corey Perry, Connor Brown, and John Klingberg all left via free agency. Viktor Arvidsson got traded. The Oilers added Andrew Mangiapane but otherwise stood pat while their Pacific Division rivals improved.

Evan Bouchard’s new $10.5 million AAV extension kicks in next season. Combined with Leon Draisaitl’s raise, the Oilers have less flexibility than ever. The betting markets clearly think Edmonton took a step back.

New York Islanders Plummet

The Isles saw one of the biggest drops, going from +6033 to +8500. Their implied probability crashed from 1.63% to just 1.16%.

This is puzzling given how active new GM Mathieu Darche has been. The Islanders added Jonathan Drouin on a reasonable two-year deal, signed prospect Maxim Shabanov, and had a strong draft headlined by Matthew Schaefer, Victor Eklund, and Kashawn Aitcheson.

But here’s the key: they also traded away Noah Dobson, their best young defenseman. That’s a massive loss that Drouin and draft picks can’t immediately replace. Dobson was their future on the blue line, and shipping him out creates a gaping hole in their top pairing.

The betting markets are telling us that losing a legitimate top-pairing defenseman outweighs adding depth forwards and prospects. In a tough Metropolitan Division with Florida, Carolina, and the Rangers all maintaining or improving their rosters, the Islanders took a step backward where it matters most.

Darche’s tenure is off to a busy start, but trading Dobson might cancel out all the positive momentum from his other moves.

Western Conference Contenders Slip

Both Dallas (+883 to +967) and Colorado (+800 to +867) saw their odds lengthen after relatively quiet summers. The Stars lost Mikael Granlund and didn’t adequately replace his production. The Avalanche added Brent Burns, but that’s a depth move for a team that needed more firepower.

In a Western Conference where Vegas just added Marner, doing nothing means going backward. The betting markets are telling us the gap between the conference’s elite has narrowed, with Vegas emerging as the new favorite.

Looking Ahead

The most striking trend? Teams that made bold moves got rewarded by oddsmakers. Vegas went all-in on Marner. Florida found a way to keep everyone. Even Montreal, who improved from +8000 to +6000, got credit for being aggressive in adding Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc via trade.

Meanwhile, teams that played it safe or struck out on their targets saw their odds drift. The salary cap increase gave everyone more room to operate, but only a few teams truly capitalized.

These odds will continue to shift throughout the offseason. But the early returns are clear: in a league where the margin between contenders is razor-thin, the teams that made the biggest splashes are the ones the betting markets believe in most.

Odds as of July 3, 2025 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. Use a DraftKings promo code when betting Stanley Cup futures.