Stars vs Lightning Prediction, Odds, H2H History & How to Watch (Oct. 30)

• The Lightning are -125 moneyline favorites over the Stars on Thursday night at Amalie Arena
• Both teams enter on three-game winning streaks after surviving Tuesday’s Frozen Frenzy slate
• See my Stars vs Lightning prediction, odds, H2H history and how to watch below for Thursday, October 30th

The Stars visit the Lightning on Thursday night in a matchup between two teams riding momentum. Dallas brings a three-game winning streak to Tampa Bay after Jake Oettinger posted a 24-save shutout against Washington on Tuesday. The Lightning have also won three straight, capped by a 5-2 victory in Nashville.

Both clubs have had time to reset after taking the ice during the NHL’s marathon Frozen Frenzy. Tampa Bay enters the game with a 4-4-2 record, while Dallas holds a 6-3-1 record, making this a battle between two teams trending in the right direction.

Puck drop is set for 7:00 pm ET from Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Stars vs Lightning Prediction

My Stars vs Lightning prediction centers on contrasting styles and what should be a tight defensive battle. Tampa Bay holds the edge in possession metrics at 5-on-5, posting a 50.62% Corsi for percentage and 50.86% Fenwick for percentage. Dallas struggles in those areas at 43.17% and 46.07% respectively.

But the Stars have found a winning formula despite losing the possession battle. Their goaltending has been exceptional, with a 92.66% save percentage that’s carrying them through games. Oettinger just posted his 13th career shutout and sports a 2.61 GAA through eight starts.

Tampa Bay generates more scoring chances (54.66% SCF) and controls 55.39% of expected goals at 5-on-5. The Lightning are shooting 10.40% compared to Dallas’ 7.77%, which shows they’re finishing chances at a higher rate. But the Stars defend high-danger chances better, posting a 90.36% save percentage on those opportunities compared to Tampa’s 85.71%.

The special teams battle heavily favors Dallas. The Stars rank 3rd in power play percentage at 31.4%, while Tampa Bay sits 29th at just 14.3%. That’s a massive gap that could swing the game. However, the Lightning have an elite penalty kill at 88.2% (4th in the NHL), while Dallas struggles at 70.9% (27th).

Stars vs Lightning 2025-26 Stats

Both teams average exactly 3.00 goals against per game, which speaks to the defensive structures in place. The scoring has been nearly identical as well, with Tampa at 2.90 and Dallas at 2.80 goals per game. This sets up for a low-scoring affair.

Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the start for Tampa with a 2-3-2 record and 2.86 GAA. He’s strung together back-to-back victories, including a .947 save percentage game vs Vegas on Oct. 26. Oettinger counters with his 5-2-1 record and fresh shutout performance.

Dallas is dealing with injuries to Jamie Benn (collapsed lung), Oskar Back, Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz and Nils Lundkvist. Tampa Bay is without Max Crozier and Nick Paul. Per the NHL Team Trends, both teams are banged up but have found ways to win recently.

The under 6 at -120 is my best bet for this matchup. The trends heavily support it: the under is 5-0-1 in Dallas’ last six overall games, 4-0-1 in their last five road games against losing home teams, and 4-0 in their last four games on one day’s rest. For Tampa, the under is 3-0-1 in their last four games against winning teams and 5-1-1 in their last seven overall.

• My Stars vs Lightning prediction: Under 6.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Stars vs Lightning Odds

Tampa Bay is currently a -125 moneyline favorite and is laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +185 odds. Dallas comes back as a +105 underdog, while the total sits at 6.

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Odds as of Oct. 30th.

Stars vs Lightning H2H History

The under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings, with four of those games featuring 6 or fewer goals. The one outlier was the 9-goal slugfest in December 2023 where Dallas won 8-1. That game aside, these teams have played tight, low-scoring affairs.

Dallas has struggled in Tampa Bay historically, going 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Amalie Arena. The Stars are also 6-15 in the last 21 meetings overall. The over is 11-4-5 in the last 20 meetings in Tampa, but recent trends suggest lower scoring.

How to Watch Stars vs Lightning

The Stars vs Lightning game airs nationally on TNT with coverage beginning at 7:00 pm ET. Cord-cutters can stream the game on Max, which offers TNT’s live sports coverage as part of its subscription package.