NASCAR Mexico City Race Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds 2025

• NASCAR Mexico City Race takes the racers south of the border Sunday from the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City
• Shane Van Gisbergen won the pole, but Ryan Preece and Ross Chastain were very close
• Below, see my NASCAR Mexico City Race predictions, picks, and odds from Mexico City

Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is a 2.42-mile course and 14-turn track where things happen at an elevated road course pace. The race should last around three hours and the stage setup is 20-25-55. Shane Van Gisbergen snagged the pole but, yesterday, Daniel Suarez won the Xfinity race coming from dead last.. It will be intriguing as the Trackhouse cars looked great on Saturday (see Chastain, Suarez, etc.).

The table below lists the Mexico City Race odds (winner, top three, and top five) for the favorites and a few racers who could get into the checkered flag mix. Further down in the article, I have listed my Mexico City Race predictions and top picks.

NASCAR Mexico City Race Betting Odds

At +200 odds, the implied probability for Shane Van Gisbergen to win the race is 33.33%. Ross Chastain rumbles in at +750 (11.76%), with Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson (+900) close behind. Larson has pushed out to +450 in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. William Byron (+500) is now in his rear-view mirror.

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Odds as of June 15 (post-qualifying) at DraftKings Sportsbook. See SBD’s guides for the DraftKings minimum deposit. 

NASCAR Mexico City Race Details

NASCAR Mexico City Race Top Pick

The weather likely will be a factor at some point on Sunday. The weather forecast banks on scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. Race conditions may deteriorate or be delayed with temperatures expected to be around 70 degrees.

Qualifying saw Trackhouse Racing figure prominently with Van Gisbergen winning the pole and Chastain right behind him. Daniel Suarez was 10th, but had outstanding late speed in the aforementioned Xfinity race. Data is always unique when it comes to an initial effort on a new track for most of these drivers. That is why so many regulars were racing in the Xfinity on Saturday.

This is again unlike any other event. No one truly knows when the race may finish on Sunday. Rain and thunderstorms can often appear out of nowhere in this kind of elevation (7.349 feet).

With no Denny Hamlin this week (baby watch), the field opens a little bit. Drivers like Ryan Preece, AJ Allemndinger, and others may have somewhat of an opening.

The track features 14 turns and that long straightaway. Do watch for Turn 3 as it seemed the spinouts were plenty here.

Road courses have been unique and some asked about Chase Elliott. Elliott won six road races in 12 events at one point. Since then, the last Elliott road win was 2021 at Elkhart Lake. Elliott and rain could lift him into contention.

Now. Trackhouse has the speed here. Kyle Larson has a chance too. Longer shots might have a chance with the weather. It is kind of a crazy coin flip between Suarez and Elliott (from one 9 to another). We will tilt to Suarez (from Monterey, Mexico) to take a rare double.

• NASCAR Mexico City Race Prediction to Win: Daniel Suarez (+2100 at Caesars)

Even More Mexico City Race Predictions

Again, I lament about there being no rain delay prop. That was a staple in the early post-COVID day. By the way, Elliott is +1200 to win.

Do take any caution prop if they should pop up. Expect quite a few spinouts and cars going off the track.

Anyhow, maybe fuel management will not foil us on Sunday. Chevy is an overwhelming favorite (-225) to win so instead. Tossing a few dollars on Ross Chastain (+500) or Daniel Suarez/Chase Elliott (+850) for “Top Chevy” is not a half bad idea.

Good luck and let’s race!