Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Odds & Prediction – Qatar Total Open Final

• No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 2 Jessica Pegula meet in the Doha singles final Saturday
• It’s their second meeting in 2023 after Swiatek won all four of their meetings in 2022
• Swiatek is the big favorite, but Pegula won their last encounter. We break down our Swiatek vs Pegula prediction here

As top-shelf as the draw was for a WTA 500 event this week in Doha, in the end, the top two seeds – Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula – are the last ones left standing for Saturday’s final (10 am ET), with Swiatek a heavy favorite in the Swiatek vs Pegula odds.

Swiatek vs Pegula Odds

Odds as of Feb. 17 at FanDuel

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Iga Swiatek, whose 2023 debut at the United Cup and the Australian Open was not particularly up to the lofty standards she set in 2022, has been virtually unbeatable so far this week in Doha.

😢 "It's not the first time I cried after a lost match."

World number one Iga Swiatek was left in tears after a straight-set defeat by American Jessica Pegula at the United Cup.#BBCTennis

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 6, 2023

Two Games Lost for Swiatek

The 21-year-old from Poland also has hardly broken a sweat doing it.

After a first-round bye, the talented American Danielle Collins was only able to get … one game against her.

In the quarterfinals, No. 7 seed Belinda Bencic didn’t even answer the bell, withdrawing before their match.

And in the semifinals, Friday, No. 8 seed Veronika Kudermetova (ranked No. 11 in the world) also managed just one game.

The Collins win took 53 minutes; Kudermetova went down in 56 minutes.

Swiatek vs Pegula Head-to-Head

Pegula Survives Sakkari – and the Wind

For Pegula, Friday’s semifinal against No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari was far more fraught.

If Swiatek’s heavy topspin helped her navigate the tricky conditions in Doha with nary a worry, Pegula and Sakkari waged a battle of attrition.

The American, who turns 29 in 10 days, won the first set but let the second set slip away.

She reset well, running away with the third to reach her first WTA final since winning the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara last October.

After the match, she said the conditions were the worst, in terms of wind, that she’d ever dealt with in her entire career.

Pegula said she played “smart”; she simply was more patient and more resourceful than her opponent, whose game has less of a pathway for scrambling in difficult conditions.

Swiatek vs Pegula Match History

Guadalajara was only her second career title; the first came after she outlasted then-18-year-old Swiatek in their first-ever meeting, on her way to the Citi Open crown in 2019.

In fact, the first six times these two met, the winner went on to win the title.

This time, it’s a sure thing, as they’re meeting in a final for the first time in the Qatar Total Open Final.

Swiatek vs Pegula Prediction

Swiatek berated herself for just not showing up when the two last met, in the team United Cup event before the Australian Open last month.

Her form would indicate that she will most definitely show up this time. And that’s very bad news for Pegula when it comes to the Swiatek vs Pegula picks.

The American has risen just about as high as is even possible for her, with only Swiatek and Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka ahead of her after this week.

She is eternally underestimated. But as much as she has improved, a share of her standing in women’s tennis has to do with the fact that so many of the other players in and out of the top 10 in the last few years have been unable to maintain their level while she calmly carried on.

Her problem against  Swiatek is that she constantly has to be on defense. And that doesn’t play to her strengths.

The wind is supposed to die down – relatively speaking – by the time the two take the court at 6 pm Doha time (10 am EST).  But it won’t go away, and Swiatek’s game showed absolutely no signs of struggle Friday against the hard-hitting Kudermetova.  Literally … none.

It doesn’t feel like an upset in the making in the Swiatek vs Pegula odds; the biggest question will be how many games Pegula can win.

Swiatek vs Pegula Picks: Under 20.5 Games (-118)

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