Sinner vs Djokovic Picks, Prediction, H2H History, & Odds (French Open Semifinal)
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- World #1 Jannik Sinner meets legend Novak Djokovic in the 2025 French Open semis
- Sinner has beaten Djokovic three straight times, but Djokovic won their only meeting on clay back in 2021
- See my Sinner vs Djokovic picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting lines
Still in search of his first French Open title, world #1 Jannik Sinner has absolutely throttled his competition in the first five rounds; he hasn’t dropped a set and has three bagels on his resume along with another three 6-1 sets. But the competition ramps up from here, with a rejuvenated Novak Djokovic – – waiting in the semifinals.
Sinner and Djokovic are set to meet on Court Philippe-Chatrier on Friday, June 6th, circa 1:00 pm ET. Despite Novak’s pedigree and his exceptional form in the first five rounds (losing just one set to Alexander Zverev in the quarters), he finds himself a massive underdog to the Italian.
Sinner vs Djokovic Odds
Sinner is listed as a -450 moneyline favorite, giving him an 81.82% implied win probability. Djokovic comes back as a +310 underdog, which amounts to just a 24.39% implied win probability. The total games is sitting at 36.5 with the over slightly favored at -120.
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None of Sinner’s first five matches went over 31 games and he’s averaged a scant 25.6 games per match. Djokovic’s four-setter against Zverev in the quarters was his first this tournament to go over 30 games.
The head-to-head history between the players is split down the middle (four wins apiece) but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The 23-year-old Sinner has dominated the recent H2H matchups, winning three in a row against the 38-year-old Djokovic.
Djokovic vs Sinner H2H History
Sinner took a straight-sets verdict the last time they met (October 2024) on hard courts at the Shanghai Masters. They haven’t met on clay since Djokovic dusted a teenage Sinner 6-4, 6-2 at the Monte Carlo Masters back in April 2021.
Sinner vs Djokovic Prediction & Picks
- Djokovic to win first set (+200)
- Over 36.5 games (-120)
It’s extremely difficult to find anything negative to say about Sinner at this point. He has taken his game to a new level in recent months. He’s the reigning US and Aussie Open champion and he hasn’t lost to anyone other than Carlos Alcaraz since August 2024.
Djokovic, however, appears to be in the best shape he’s been in for years. He shook off a rough start to the clay-court season with a victory in Geneva prior to the French, and his play in Paris has been even better. We might not be seeing prime Nole, but it’s not far off. The savvy veteran will be keenly aware how important the first set is. He’ll have no interest in a five-set marathon with the younger and fitter Sinner. So I expect a huge effort from Djokovic in the first set, which will inevitably push the game total over as Sinner battles back later in the match.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
