Sinner vs Musetti Prediction, Picks & Best Odds

• World #1 Jannik Sinner faces compatriot Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open quarters
• Sinner hasn’t dropped a set to Musetti in two previous meetings
• See my Sinner vs Musetti prediction and picks, plus the best available odds

World #1 Jannik Sinner continues his quest to repeat as US Open champion on Wednesday night when he meets fellow Italian #10 Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals on Arthur Ashe.

Musetti’s fairly-new status as a top-ten player hasn’t deterred sportsbooks from listing Sinner as a prohibitively short favorite. Sinner has won the last three hardcourt grand slams and has yet to drop a set to Musetti in two career meetings. The Sinner vs Musetti start time is listed as not before 8:10 pm ET on Arthur Ashe.

Jump to: Best Odds | H2H History | Prediction & Picks

Sinner vs Musetti Odds

The best moneyline price bettors will find on Sinner today is -2000 at DraftKings. (He’s as short as -4000 at FanDuel.) Musetti’s best price is +1400 at both bet365 and FanDuel. The game spread is sitting at Sinner -7.5; his best odds to cover are -140 at Caesars. Bettors can get Musetti +7.5 as long as +120 at ESPN Bet.

The best under option is currently 31.5 at FanDuel. Every other book has the default game total at 30.5 (with under 30.5 about -120 on average), so FanDuel is giving bettors an extra game with minimal extra juice. The best over option is 30.5 (-115) at ESPN.

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Sinner is -120 (or shorter) in the odds to win the US Open heading into his quarterfinal match. Musetti is a +8000 longshot.

Musetti has waltzed to the quarterfinals fairly easily, dropping just one set via tiebreak in the first round to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (6-7³, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4), arguably the best server on tour at the moment. He trounced world #80 David Goffin (6-4, 6-0, 6-2) who’s long past his prime, #26 Flavio Cobolli (6-3, 6-2, 2-0 ret.) who retired due to injury, and #44 Jaime Munar (6-3, 6-0, 6-1), who’s far better on clay.

Sinner has largely breezed through his first four opponents, including world #89 Vit Kopriva (6-1, 6-1, 6-2) and #36 Alexei Popyrin (6-3, 6-2, 6-2). He received a stiffer test from #29 Denis Shapovalov (5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3) in the third round before running over mercurial #24 Alexander Bublik (6-1, 6-1, 6-1), who committed an unsightly 13 double faults, in the fourth.

He saved all seven breakpoint chances against his serve in the first two matches and was 1-of-1 against Bublik, but just 3-for-6 in the four-setter against Shapovalov.

Sinner’s Hardcourt Grand Slam Dominance

Sinner has won all 16 of his completed hardcourt matches this season, starting with the 2025 Australian Open, where he dropped just two sets in seven matches. The only hardcourt match he’s lost this season was via retirement due to illness against Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati.

Alcaraz was also the last player to beat Sinner in a completed match on hardcourt (6-7⁸, 6-4, 7-6³) in Beijing at the tailend of the 2024 season.

The last man to beat Sinner on hardcourts at a grand slam was Alex Zverev (6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3) in the fourth round of the 2023 US Open. Sinner is currently riding a 25-match win streak at hardcourt slams (two straight Aussie Open wins, the 2024 US Open, and another four matches so far at the 2025 US Open).

Musetti vs Sinner H2H History

The two previous meetings between Sinner and Musetti haven’t been pretty for the latter. He’s lost all four sets and was double-broken in three of those. He has yet to break Sinner’s serve, generating just five breakpoint chances across the two matches.

Sinner broke the Musetti serve seven times on 15 tries in the two previous meetings.

The only good news for Musetti is that both matches are ancient history by this point. Their most-recent meeting was 2.5 years ago on clay in Monaco, when Musetti hasn’t even entered the top-30 yet.

Of course, Sinner wasn’t the hardcourt nonpareil he’s become back then, either.

Sinner vs Musetti Prediction & Picks

• Musetti to win first set (+450) at bet365 or ESPN Bet
• Musetti +7.5 games (+120) ESPN Bet

Call me crazy but I don’t think Sinner is going to walk through this match completely unscathed. Musetti has the capacity to go toe-to-toe with the best in the world when he’s on his game. He’s pushed Novak Djokovic to the brink at a grand slam, losing a five-setter at the 2024 French Open, and took the first set off Alcaraz at the 2025 French. The underdog would have a better chance if this match was on clay, but his hardcourt game is on the rise.

Shapovalov’s success against Sinner in the third round was telling. I’m not completely convinced Sinner has fully recovered from whatever it was that made him retire against Alcaraz in Cincinnati. He was fortunate that Shapovalov committed nine double faults, something that’s plagued the Canadian throughout his career.

I’m not expecting Musetti to win the match (barring another retirement from the world #1) but I do like the value on Musetti winning the first set at +450, which amounts to just a 18.18% implied win probability. I’m also taking him to cover +7.5-game spread at plus-money.