Triple Crown Betting – Is Nyquist Good Value?

Two weeks ago, Nyquist was 4/1 to win the Kentucky Derby. When the gates opened on Saturday, he was 2/1 chalk, and he looked the part over the next mile-and-a-quarter.

Prior to the Run for the Roses, Nyquist was 21/2 to win the Triple Crown. Following his win in Louisville, the odds are a shade under 2/1. How should bettors be approaching the latter two legs of the Triple Crown?

While the shift in odds from over 10/1 to under 2/1 is drastic seeing as how Nyquist still has two more races to win, the shift is largely justified. The way the Kentucky Derby was run was a death sentence for horses running near the front of the pack (the ones not named Nyquist, that is). The fractions were fast and that usually helps horses coming from behind. As the Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker noted, everybody else who went to the lead ended up getting crushed.

Throughout Saturday, distance races on dirt were won by horses running off the pace. Yet Nyquist battled upstream against a track bias and still won easily.

The Preakness

On Sunday morning, the word from most of Nyquist’s rivals was, “have a safe trip to Baltimore, we won’t see you there.” Besides runner-up Exaggerator, not many Derby entrants are expected to race at the Preakness. Exaggerator has an excellent kick down the stretch and benefited from the pace of the Kentucky Derby, but still finished 1.25 lengths back. The Preakness is a 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby, and the pace probably won’t be as hot. Edge Nyquist.

Not only do the distance and expected tempo of the Preakness benefit Nyquist, top filly Songbird, who many think could be the quickest three-year-old in the country, may not be healthy enough to compete. That leaves a group of horses that failed to do enough to make the Kentucky Derby field. He will be 2/5 or shorter in Baltimore.

The Belmont

If Nyquist wins the Preakness, he will ship to New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. That is where trouble potentially looms. The Belmont will be the third race in five weeks for Nyquist, while many of his Derby rivals will have rested. Furthermore, the Belmont is a-mile-and-a-half, a quarter-mile longer than the Kentucky Derby. If a Triple Crown is on the line, somebody will enter a speed horse to ensure Nyquist is unable to set moderate fractions.

If he wins the Preakness, which is likely, Nyquist will be 1/3 or 1/5 to win the Belmont. If you are going to bet on him, put your money down now at nearly 2/1. If you want to bet against him, wait until he wins the Preakness, then play the field.

If you are greedy, bet both heavy. As long as Nyquist wins the Preakness, you’ll be looking at a profit.

(Photo credit: Jeff Kubina (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)