Final Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Prediction, Expert Pick & Closing Line

• Miami (OH) is a 2.5-point road favorite over Buffalo in Wednesday night MACtion
• Sharp money has hammered the RedHawks with 82% of moneyline handle
• See below for my Miami (OH) vs Buffalo final prediction, expert pick and closing line for Wednesday, Nov 19

Wednesday’s MACtion pits Miami (OH) against Buffalo at UB Stadium, with the latest college football odds showing some wild line movement. I’ve made my final prediction and expert pick just hours ahead of kickoff.

The RedHawks (6-5) lost starting quarterback Dequan Finn who left for NFL Draft prep. The Bulls (6-5) counter with a pass rush that’s generated 33 sacks this season. Both teams need this win to keep their MAC championship hopes alive.

The game will kick off at 7 p.m. ET from Buffalo, NY, with ESPN2 providing coverage.

Final Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Prediction

My Miami (OH) vs Buffalo prediction begins with the turnover differential between the two teams. Miami sits at +4 on the season, while Buffalo is at -6. That’s the type of turnover gap that often decides close games in November.

Buffalo has coughed up 18 turnovers this season, including 12 fumbles. Miami’s defense has snagged 12 interceptions, creating short fields and easy scoring opportunities. The Bulls quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson has thrown nine picks already. If you can’t protect the football against a team that forces takeaways, you’re in trouble.

Key Statistical Matchup

Neither offense scares anyone, hence the low game total. Miami averages 22.5 points per game, while Buffalo scores 23.6. Both teams convert third downs at miserable rates below 36%. This looks like a rock fight where field position matters most.

Buffalo’s pass rush (3.3 sacks per game) gives them a chance to disrupt Miami’s offense. But Miami’s backup Henry Hesson completed just 11-of-38 passes last week after Finn’s exit, a brutal 29% completion rate.

Professional bettors have pounded Miami, accounting for 82% of the moneyline handle despite only 47% of tickets. When that much big money flows in one direction, you can’t ignore it. Buffalo is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Expert Pick

Based on my prediction, I’m taking Miami (OH) -2.5 and the Under 38.5. The RedHawks’ turnover advantage creates too many extra possessions, which typically decides close games. Buffalo can’t afford giveaways against a team that makes you pay for mistakes.

I’m expecting this Wednesday’s MACtion game to be a rough defensive battle where mistakes will decide the winner. The home team has won and covered seven straight in this series, but it’s hard to trust Buffalo right now.

Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Picks:

• Spread: Miami (OH) -2.5 (-112),
• Total: Under 38.5 (-107)

Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Closing Line

This line has been steadily moving towards the RedHawks since it was first posted. Buffalo opened as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday, but the line flipped completely to Miami -1 by Monday morning.

Tuesday saw more steady support for Miami, pushing them from -1 to -1.5. Wednesday morning brought another wave, moving the RedHawks to -2.5 where they currently sit.

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Odds as of November 19th. Check out the top US betting sites for Week 13 MACtion.

The total has also been on the move. Opening at 39.5, it touched 40 on Tuesday before reversing course. Wednesday’s action drove it down to 38.5, dropping a full point and a half in 24 hours.

Public bettors (53% of tickets) actually favor Buffalo at home, but the 82% of moneyline handle on Miami shows where the smart money landed. That’s one of the biggest sharp-public divides you’ll see in college football.

With both teams desperate for a win and the turnover battle heavily favoring Miami, the RedHawks should cover this short road number. I like the Under too, as neither offense has the firepower for a shootout.