Lightning vs. Red Wings Prediction, Prop Bets, Odds & How to Watch (Nov. 28)

• The Lightning are -120 moneyline favorites over the Red Wings in Friday’s noon showdown at Little Caesars Arena
• Tampa Bay’s shooting 12.31% while Detroit sits at just 9.66%, but the Wings control possession
• See my Lightning vs Red Wings predictions below, plus odds and how to watch from Detroit

Tampa Bay brings a five-game winning streak into Little Caesars Arena for a Friday afternoon showdown with Detroit. The Lightning (14-7-2) sit atop the Atlantic Division while the Red Wings (13-10-1) are trying to climb back into the playoff picture.

Face-off is set for 12:00 PM ET, kicking off a full day of Black Friday NHL action. Two teams heading in opposite directions meet up, with Tampa riding momentum and Detroit desperate for a bounce-back performance after dropping two straight.

I’ve made my Lightning vs Red Wings prediction, plus identified some prop bet odds to target in the NHL odds.

Lightning vs Red Wings Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Wings 4, Lightning 3

My Lightning vs Red Wings prediction goes against Tampa’s hot streak. Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest they’re due for positive regression, and the matchup sets up perfectly for a home upset.

The Wings are dominating possession at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. They’re controlling 56.32% of shots and 53.47% of shot attempts, yet they’ve only gone 4-5-1. That’s a classic case of bad luck combined with poor finishing.

Detroit is shooting just 6.30% at even strength, while Tampa’s converting at 13.74%. League average typically sits around 8-9%, meaning Tampa’s running hot and Detroit’s ice cold. That gap has to close eventually.

Stats Comparison

Special teams heavily favor Detroit’s power play (22.78%) against Tampa’s mediocre penalty kill relative to their overall defensive strength. The Lightning’s power play sits at just 16.22%, so if this game gets chippy, Detroit has the edge.

Tampa’s dealing with brutal injuries on defense. Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, Ryan McDonagh, and Max Crozier are all out. That’s four legitimate NHL defensemen missing from their lineup. Brayden Point’s status is questionable too, which would be massive for the Lightning’s top line.

Detroit owns some interesting trends here. They’re 6-0 in their last six after allowing five-plus goals, which happened Tuesday against Nashville. They’re also 4-0 when their opponent scored five-plus in their previous game, which Tampa just did against Calgary.

The Lightning are just 1-4 in their last five meetings in Detroit. That’s not ancient history either – these teams just played October 17th and Detroit won 2-1 in overtime as home underdogs.

Andrei Vasilevskiy starts for Tampa with his 2.28 GAA and .918 save percentage. He’s been elite, winning eight of his last 10. But Cam Talbot counters with a 9-4 record despite shaky underlying numbers. Talbot’s been getting lit up recently (.821 and .789 save percentages in his last two), but Detroit’s shown they bounce back well after ugly losses.

The expected goals are nearly identical between these teams at 5-on-5 (Detroit 50.84%, Tampa 51.09%). The actual results have been wildly different due to finishing and goaltending variance. That suggests regression is coming, and I’m betting it happens on Detroit’s home ice.

Best Tampa Bay vs Detroit Bets

Red Wings moneyline at +100 is the top play. You’re getting even money on a home team that controls possession and has Tampa’s number at Little Caesars Arena. The Lightning’s defensive injuries make this even more attractive.

Over 6.5 goals at standard juice is a solid play too. The over is 8-0-1 in Detroit’s last nine following a home loss of three-plus goals. It’s also 5-1-1 in their last seven home games overall. Tampa’s allowed five goals in two of their last 10, so Vasilevskiy isn’t unbeatable.

For player props, Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 shots on goal at +119 offers value. He’s gone over this number in five of his last seven at home, averaging 4.0 shots in those games. Detroit needs offense badly, and DeBrincat’s their most consistent shooter.

Nikita Kucherov over 0.5 assists at -166 is heavily juiced but worth playing. He’s recorded at least one assist in five straight games, averaging 1.6 helpers during that stretch. Even if Detroit wins, Kucherov is likely getting on the scoresheet.

Lightning vs Red Wings Odds

Tampa opened around -110, but money has come in on the Lightning, pushing them to -120. That makes the Red Wings at +100 even more attractive as a fade-the-public play. The total has held steady at 6.5 with -130 juice to the Over on BetMGM.

The puck line shows Tampa -1.5 at +185, which will be tempting for many given their winning streak. Keep in mind, though, Detroit has covered the puck line in 13 of 24 games this season. Still, I’d rather play that moneyline as the +1.5 spread is heavily juiced at all major books.

How to Watch Lightning vs Red Wings

Friday’s game starts at 12:00 PM ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. Check your regional sports networks for broadcast details, as coverage varies by market.

The early afternoon start time makes this perfect for Black Friday viewing before the evening slate begins. Both teams need the two points badly – Tampa to maintain their division lead, Detroit to climb back into the playoff race.