Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Week 17 Predictions: Expert Picks, Odds & Best Bets for AFC North Showdown

• The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win over the Browns
• The Browns are in the hunt for a top-three pick in the 2026 NFL Draft
• See my favorite Steelers vs Browns picks and predictions for Week 17 (Dec. 28th)

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, 4-3 away, 8-7 ATS) travel to face the Cleveland Browns (3-12, 2-6 home, 6-9 ATS) as road favorites in a huge Week 17 clash that could determine AFC North supremacy. Kickoff is set for 1:00 pm ET at Huntington Bank Field on Sunday, Dec. 28th.

Pittsburgh will clinch the division and a spot in the NFL playoff bracket with a win, but the Steelers are dealing with multiple injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball, with three starters listed as out: edge rusher TJ Watt, cornerback James Pierre, and nickelback Brandin Echols.

This contest still projects as a defensive battle where field position and turnover differential will prove decisive. Below, I have analyzed the odds movement and statistical mismatches in order to find my favorite Steelers vs Browns picks.

Steelers vs Browns Expert Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Week 17

Game-Total Pick: Under 35.5 Total Points (-112) at DraftKings

The game total for this AFC North clash has ticked up over the course of the week after opening at just 34.5 points. The line is now a full point higher at many sportsbooks and, notwithstanding the injuries on Pittsburgh’s defense, I lean strongly to the under.

The case for a low-scoring affair is overwhelming when dissecting Cleveland’s offensive metrics. The Browns manage just 16.4 points per game, 31st in the NFL, while ranking dead-last on offense at PFF and in O-DVOA. Their third-down conversion rate ranks among the NFL’s bottom tier, stalling drives and limiting scoring opportunities even when they achieve reasonable field position.

Against a Pittsburgh defense that’s top ten in D-DVOA, that’s apt to continue on Sunday afternoon.

Cleveland’s defense, meanwhile, sits fourth in D-DVOA. The Steelers’ ground-and-pound approach becomes even more pronounced with their secondary dealing with multiple injuries, as they’ll prioritize ball control to limit Cleveland’s pass rush opportunities.

These teams managed just 32 points when they met back in Week 6 (a 23-9 Steeler victory). Today’s scoreline is likely to look similar.

Situational trend: Unders are 8-2 in Cleveland’s last 10 games when the total drops below 38 points.

ATS Best Bet: Steelers -3.5 (-122) at BetRivers

Pittsburgh’s statistical advantages are too big to ignore when it comes to betting the spread. Significant value exists in backing Pittsburgh to cover, even though points will be at a premium.

Offensive Efficiency Breakdown

The fundamental gap between these offenses creates a scenario where a single turnover – Cleveland’s specialty – could easily determine the margin of victory.

Line movement from the opening -3 to the current -3.5 indicates market consensus favoring Pittsburgh’s efficiency advantage. Even accounting for potential rust from key defensive players, the Browns’ offensive struggles make it difficult to envision them keeping pace with a disciplined Steelers attack that averages nearly a full touchdown more per game.

Top Player Prop: Jaylen Warren Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM

Pittsburgh’s optimal game script revolves around controlling the clock and neutralizing Cleveland’s formidable pass rush. This approach places Warren squarely in the spotlight as the primary weapon in a run-heavy attack designed to exploit time of possession.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Odds

The betting market heavily favors Pittsburgh, with the moneyline moving from an opening -180 to the current -218 (or shorter) price, indicating substantial action on the Steelers. Caesars Sportsbook has the best Pittsburgh moneyline while bet365 has the best Cleveland moneyline.

The point spread opened at -3.5 and has been bet up a full point at many books over the course of the week. Counterintuitively, bet365 now has the best ATS price on the Steelers; DraftKings has the best ATS price on the Browns.

Odds as of 10:51 am ET, Dec 28. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market.

PIT vs CLE Public-Betting Splits: Sharp vs Square Money Splits

The NFL public betting data establish clear preferences across all major markets, creating interesting contrarian opportunities.

Current Money Distribution:

• Moneyline: 89% money backing Pittsburgh Steelers to win outright
• Spread: 58% of money supporting Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
• Total: 84% of money wagering on Over 34.5 points

The most compelling contrarian opportunity emerges on the game total. While an overwhelming 83.1% of money expects offensive fireworks, my O/U picks targets the under based on Cleveland’s season-long scoring struggles.

PIT vs CLE H2H Statistics