Best Over/Under Win Total Bets Ahead of 2021 NHL Season

• The NHL is one of the only sport league’s that use point totals instead of win totals, with overtime losses counting as a single point and regulation wins as two points
• The Colorado Avalanche have the highest point total set at 76.5, with Vegas not far behind at 74.5
• Damien Cox breaks down the odds for all the regular-season point totals and provides his best bets below

This we know for sure about this upcoming NHL season.

There will be surprises.

Some of them will be individual surprises, both good and bad. Some will be team surprises, both good and bad.

It’s just a question of figuring out which is which and which to bet on.

From a team standpoint, a 56-game season, with play only within the division, changes the equation significantly. We’ll still have lots of intense rivalries – The Battle of Alberta, Washington-Pittsburgh, Kings-Sharks – but teams will be able to avoid certain matchups that rarely favor them.

Yep, we’re looking at you Toronto Maple Leafs. You don’t have to worry about those mean-old Boston Bruins this season. Detroit gets to avoid Boston, Colorado, Vegas, St. Louis, and Toronto all season.

That also complicates betting the over-under on the NHL team point totals. There’s just no handy reference to rely upon.
But what the heck, we’ll give it a try.

Best Over Bets

Colorado Avalanche

• Over 76.5 Points (-115)

The odds have Colorado putting together 76.5 points this season. That’s the equivalent of a 114-point campaign in an 82-game season.

And I think they’ll get there.

The Avalanche, after all, get to feast on the Wild, Coyotes, Sharks, Kings, and Ducks FORTY TIMES this season in what looks like the NHL’s weakest division. Nathan MacKinnon could have 100 points by the end of February.

Vegas Golden Knights

• Over 74.5 Points (-115)

The Vegas Golden Knights. See Colorado above.

Is there more to say than that?

Alex Pietrangelo is headed to the @GoldenKnights after signing a seven-year deal.

Thoughts on the signing? 🤔#NHLFreeAgency | #NHLonSN pic.twitter.com/rLDSA7cOY2

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 12, 2020

Vegas looks stronger than last season when they were on track for 99 points. Nate Schmidt was good, but Alex Pietrangelo should be an upgrade. Having depth in goal should help. So I’d say the Knights should be able to exceed the 81.5 points oddsmakers have projected for them as they pound on the weaklings of the West.

Vancouver Canucks

• Over 62.5 Points (-115)

There’s a lot to like about the Vancouver Canucks. They knocked off Minny and the defending champs from St. Louis in the first two rounds of the summer bubble playoffs then gave Vegas all it could handle in a memorable seven-game series.

FAMILIAR FACES, NEW PLACES: @Holts170, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2015-16, is set to suit up for the @Canucks in 2020-21. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/Ij7k9N9W7J

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 9, 2021

So 62.5 points on the over-under scale? Sure, I think Vancouver can get there, particularly if Braden Holtby can work effectively in tandem with Thatcher Demko in the blue paint. The Canucks are facing some serious cap issues next season, but they’ve been able to keep their young core together for now.

Florida Panthers

• Over 60.5 Points (-115)

The Florida Panthers were decent with 78 points last season. A bounce-back season from Sergei Bobrovsky in goal could make them much better.

Sure, Mike Hoffman left, as did Evgenii Dadonov. But Anthony Duclair could replace some of that offense, and in Aleksander Barkov and Jonathon Huberdeau, the Panthers have an intimidating 1-2 combination. Patric Hornqvist and Radko Gudas could make them a much less pleasant team to play against. If they can run up the wins on Chicago and Detroit and hold their own with Columbus and Nashville, Joel Quenneville’s boys can do better than the 60.5 points oddsmakers have projected for them.

Best Under Bets

San Jose Sharks

• Under 53.5 Points (-110)

The Sharks had enough problems without learning winger Evander Kane will be filing for personal bankruptcy and may not play at all this season. Oddsmakers have projected San Jose to accumulate 53.5 points this season, and unless one or both of Devan Dubnyk and Martin Jones recapture their form of previous years, that’s going to take some luck to reach.

The Sharks confirm that they’ve acquired Devan Dubnyk and a 2022 seventh-round draft pick from the Wild in exchange for a 2022 fifth-round draft pick. pic.twitter.com/n5Qp32PW5F

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 5, 2020

Bob Boughner’s group won’t get to play at home until February, and perhaps not even then, depending on what happens in their home county in California. The Toronto Blue Jays did fine playing out of Buffalo all last season, but I’m not sure the Sharks are going to fare as well much further from home.

Buffalo Sabres

• Under 56.5 Points (-115)

Even if Taylor Hall suddenly becomes the franchise player he has rarely shown himself to be during his curious NHL career, it’s going to be a long, long, long season in Buffalo.

Are the Sabres better? Maybe. They’ve stunk for a long time, so better is relative. But that East Division is just Murderer’s Row for them, and slotting them in for 56.5 points this season looks like a stretch. They’ve got the established contenders – Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh – and up-and-coming squads in Philly, Manhattan, and Long Island.

The Sabres fancy themselves as a team on the rise. But not this season. Not with this schedule.

Detroit Red Wings

• Under 42.5 Points (-120) 

Poor, poor Detroit. Seems funny to say that after all those years of Red Wing domination, but being absolutely horrendous last season didn’t even bring the Motowners a chance to draft Alexis Lafreniere. Instead, they landed a fine Swedish prospect in left-winger Lucas Raymond, but he won’t help right away.

Lucas Raymond how are ya?! #WorldJuniors #LGRW

🎥: @TSN_Sports pic.twitter.com/ic0pj7AC6O

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) January 2, 2021

They’ll be an underdog every single night in the Central, although problems in Chicago may bring the Hawks a little closer. After delaying the rebuilding process for too long, the Wings are deep into it now. Getting the 42.5 points oddsmakers have them pegged for after managing only 39 last season looks like a pipe dream.

Montreal Canadiens

• Under 67.5 Points (-120)

Hope is on the upswing in Montreal, home to Canada’s last Stanley Cup champion.

But 67.5 points projected for this season? More than Vancouver, Washington, Edmonton, Columbus, and the Islanders?

Based on what? The addition of Corey Perry? (he hit the waiver wire on Monday)

Look, if Carey Price plays his brains out, in theory, the Habs can push for the top in the North Division. They’ve tried to get bigger with players like Josh Anderson and Joel Edmundson, and Nick Suzuki provided a welcome dose of optimism last summer.

But as long as Marc Bergevin has been in charge in Montreal, the off-season moves have never added up to regular-season success. More than half of the league averaged three goals per game last year, and the Habs weren’t one of them.

They might make the playoffs. But it’ll be tight.