Utah State vs San Diego State – Picks and Odds for Mountain West Title Game

• The Utah State Aggies battle San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament final for a third straight year
• The Aggies swept the season series, but face a San Diego State squad riding a 13-game win streak
• We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of this year’s MWC Tournament championship game 

College basketball fans will be presented with a familiar championship matchup on Saturday, when the San Diego State Aztecs take on the Utah State Aggies in the final game of this year’s Mountain West Conference Tournament as slender 1-point favorites.

This marks the third straight year that these two teams have met in tournament final, with the Aggies coming away victorious in each of those two previous clashes. Utah State has flashed championship form while tallying six straight victories, but will face a red-hot Aztecs squad that rides an epic 13-game win streak into this year’s title game.

The 2021 MWC Tournament final tips off at 6pm ET Saturday evening at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

Utah State vs San Diego State Odds

*Odds taken at FoxBet on March 13, 2021.

Utah State Swinging into Form

The defending champion Aggies claimed the No. 2 seed in this year’s edition of the MWC Tournament by closing out their regular season schedule with four straight victories. Now unbeaten in six straight, Utah State has made an impressive turnaround after struggling through a four-week stretch, where the team saw three games postponed or cancelled due to COVID-19 worries, and lost outright in four of the six games they managed to play.

Second-seeded Utah State beats Colorado State 62-50 in the second semi, setting up an Aztecs-Aggies final for the third straight year.

— Mark Zeigler (@sdutzeigler) March 13, 2021

The disruption to their season also took its toll on the Aggies’ performance at the sportsbooks, where they tallied ATS wins in just three of their final 10 scheduled contests. However, the team has swung back into form during their current surge, with four of their past five victories coming by wide double-digit margins, capped by a 62-50 rout of Colorado State in semi-final action on Friday night.

Stout Aggies Defense Key to Success

A stout Aggies defense has limited opponents to just 53.3 points over their past four contests, and has lifted the club to No. 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. In addition to rewarding loyal sports bettors with ATS victories in their two tournament contests to date, Utah State’s stinginess has also powered a steady four-game run for the UNDER in totals betting.

https://twitter.com/rbritoreis/status/1370714480594857988?s=20

While the Aggies lack San Diego State’s explosive edge on offense, they have consistently found a higher gear during their current tear. Utah State has outpaced by an average of 13.8 points after halftime over their past four outings. Leading scorer Neemias Queta has led the attack. The junior big man has been tops in team scoring in their two tournament games to date, and has averaged an impressive 22.1 points and 12.8 rebounds while recording double-doubles in eight straight outings.

SD State has Lots to Prove

The Aztecs hope to turn the tables on Utah State as they make their 11th trip to the MWC Tournament final in 13 years. The team has lots to prove despite enjoying a lengthy win streak that has lifted them to No. 19 on the AP Top 25 rankings. San Diego State has been dominant during its current surge, which has featured 10 wins by double-digit margins, though results have tightened up considerably at this tournament.

Matt Mitchell scored 24 points, Jordan Schakel 15 and Trey Pulliam 13 to lead No. 19 San Diego State to a 77-70 win over Nevada on Friday night in the MWC tourney semifinals at Las Vegas. It was the Aztecs’ 13th straight win as they improved to 22-4 overall. #Aztecs

— Bill O'Rear (@billohoops) March 13, 2021

The team was lucky to escape with a narrow 69-66 win over the eighth-seeded Wyoming Cowboys in quarterfinal action, and needed a full 40 minutes to fend off a spirited comeback attempt by Nevada in Friday’s 77-70 semifinal win. Those relative close finishes have resulted in disappointment at the sportsbooks, where the Aztecs have now posted ATS losses in each of their past four outings.

Aztecs Snakebitten by Aggies

Equally concerning is the Aztecs’ current run of futility in clashes with Utah State. In addition to coming up short both SU and ATS in their past two meetings in the MWC Tournament final, the Aztecs were also outclassed in a pair of road losses to the Aggies during the regular season, including a 57-45 defeat as 1-point underdogs on January 7th that marked their worst offensive performance of the campaign.

.@USUBasketball snaps SDSU's 13-game road winning streak as it takes down the Aztecs, 57-45. pic.twitter.com/t6vhUtQtl8

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) January 15, 2021

Injuries also remain a concern for the Aztecs. Aguek Arop managed to make his first appearance of the tournament in Friday’s win. But the junior big man saw limited minutes, and remains questionable as he battles to overcome a current bout of vertigo. And talented freshman guard Keith Dinwiddie Jr remains on the shelf as he battles a hip injury that has kept him off the court since early February.

While vengeance is a huge motivator for the Aztecs, they will face a huge challenge to reverse their current stretch of woe vs Utah State. Look for the Aggies to complete the three-peat with another steady defensive performance.

The Picks: Aggies to win (+105); UNDER 128.5 (-110)