Iowa vs Virginia Odds and Picks

• Iowa is a 1.5-point road favorite against Virginia on Monday
• Iowa leads NCAA Division I in scoring at 97.2 points per game
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

Virginia (5-2) is a 1.5-point home underdog to Iowa in the first game of the three-day Big Ten/ACC Challenge at 7pm ET on ESPN2. The Cavaliers have won four in a row after a 20-point loss to No. 12 Houston on Nov. 16.

Iowa (6-0) will play its first true road game after opening the season with lopsided home victories against a series of mid-majors. The Hawkeyes’ closest victory has been by 17 points over North Carolina Central.

Iowa vs Virginia Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Nov. 28

The game marks a distinct contrast in styles. While the Hawkeyes lead NCAA Division I in scoring at 97.2 points per game, Virginia is fourth in Division I in fewest points given up at 53.6 per game.

The Hawkeyes are shooting 50% from the field. The Wahoos have held opponents to 36.9%, the lowest among Power 6 schools.

Life Without Luka

The Hawkeyes have turned to sophomore 6-foot-8 forward Keegan Murray as the principal offensive weapon following the departure of career leading scorer Luka Garza, a two-time All-American and Big Ten Player of the Year and consensus national player of the year.

Murray leads Division I at 25.7 points per game despite averaging only 26.4 minutes per. He made the Big Ten all-Freshman team a year ago, averaging 7.2 points and 5.1 rebounds in 18 minutes a game.

Murray’s twin brother Kris has helped make up for the loss of guard Joe Wieskamp (NBA) and transfers CJ Fredrick (Kentucky) and Jack Nunge ( to Xavier) by averaging 12.8 points and 6.8 rebounds off the bench. One way to tell them apart — Keegan shoots right-handed, Kris shoots left.

*𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘴𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘭𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘕𝘰𝘷. 29 – 𝘋𝘦𝘤. 1*#B1GMBBall pic.twitter.com/T0HyAB2bZl

— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) October 14, 2021

Sixth year senior point guard Jordan Bohannon is averaging 10.0 points and set the NCAA Division I career record with 379 3-pointers last week. Guard Patrick McCaffrey, the son of coach Fran McCaffrey, scored 14 points in an 85-51 victory over Portland State the last time out after missing two games with a lower body injury.

Cavs Proceed With Caution

Virginia plays at the slowest pace of any of the 358 teams in NCAA Division I, according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo ratings. The Cavaliers are averaging 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes, but as usual are making it work despite losing starters Sam Hauser, Jay Huff and Trey Murphy.

Iowa ranks 27th in tempo, averaging almost 12 more possessions per 40 minutes than Virginia.

The Cavs are led by experienced returning guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman and transfers Jayden Gardner (East Carolina) and Armaan Franklin (Indiana). Clark is averaging 10.3 points and 3.9 assists per game, and Beekman is averaging 4.3 assists and is sixth in Division I with 2.9 steals per game. Beekman had 10 points, five rebounds, four steals and four assists against Lehigh.

🏀 🚨 #𝗕𝟭𝗚 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀

Your 2021-22 Preseason All-#B1GMBBall Team:

🏀 5 1st-team All-#B1G players
🏀 4 All-Freshman Team honorees from 2020-21
🏀️ 2 #B1G individual award winners

🗞️ https://t.co/3JEgX4w3uF pic.twitter.com/HiCrAEWjpx

— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) October 27, 2021

Gardner, a 6-foot-7 forward, leads at 13.4 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and Franklin is averaging 13 points. Gardner was second in the American in scoring and rebounding a year ago.

Virginia’s Pack Line Defense

The Cavaliers’ collapsing defense, the so-called “pack line” defense, is geared to prevent penetration and make opponents beat them from the outside.

Navy made 11-of-21 3-pointers in a season-opening 66-58 victory over the Wahoos and Houston was 11-of-20 from three-point range in its 67-47 victory, but the four most recent opponents, including Georgia and Providence, are 18-of-93 from three, a 19.4% clip.

🛫@reece_beekman🛬

🔶⚔️🔷#GoHoos pic.twitter.com/Vydp1BbVBB

— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) November 28, 2021

Virginia’s last four opponents — Coppin State, Georgia, Providence and Lehigh — have shot 30.8, 37.0, 23.5 and 35.3% from the field, respectively.

Iowa has made 38.5% of its 3-pointers. Jordan Bohannon is 15-of-38 this season. Reserve Payton Santford is 12-of-34. Keegan Murray is 9-for-25, and bother Kris is 9-for-14.

By the Numbers

The Hawkeyes are 2-1 in the series, although Virginia won the last meeting 74-41 win in the semifinals of the 2016 Emerald Coast Classic. Iowa won postseason games in the 2013 NIT and the 1997 NCAA tournament. Iowa is second in Division I in scoring margin at plus-31.7 and sixth in turnover margin at plus-8.5.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS this season. Virginia is 1-1 ATS as as underdog. It is a home underdog for the first time.

Power 6 coaches often schedule nonconference games against directionals and/or mid-majors in order to build a young team’s confidence while not exposing to a hazard. Iowa will face by far its stiffest test against the Cavaliers,

The pick: Virginia +1.5 (-115)