Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Picks, Odds, and Week 4 Best Bets

• The Tennessee Titans visit the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South clash Sunday
• Tennessee has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings
• See the Titans vs Colts picks and odds ahead of their Week 4 clash, and our pick below

Both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts delivered season-saving wins in Week 3.

Now they go head-to-head in Week 4, which will leave the winner in the mix for the AFC South crown, and the loser scrambling to get back into the picture.

The Colts, who upended the Kansas City Chiefs as 5.5-point home underdogs, are now favored by 3.5 points in this divisional matchup.

Tennessee got into the win column with a win against the Las Vegas Raiders, the only team yet to win this season.

It all gets underway Sunday (October 2) at Lucas Oil Stadium, at 1pm ET, in a game that can be seen on FOX.

Titans vs Colts Odds

Odds as of October 1st from Barstool Sporstbook. 

Checking the NFL Betting Trends,  67% of the bets against the spread are going to the visiting Titans and 58% are placing their wagers on the Tennessee moneyline.

These two sides are barely putting up 30 points a game combined, but the over is getting 58% of the money in this matchup.

Derrick Henry vs Jonathan Taylor

While these teams have had their early-season struggles, they do feature two of the league’s premier running backs, and owners of the last three rushing titles.

Derrick Henry had arguably his best outing since a foot injury derailed his previous campaign — a game against these Colts. Henry carried 20 times for 85 yards and touchdown in Tennessee’s 24-22 win over the Raiders.

Derrick Henry's best plays from Week 3 vs. Raiders #LVvsTEN

📺: More coverage on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/EKxUBOQGWi

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) September 26, 2022

That 4.3 yards per carry dwarfs the 2.9 average in the Titans’ first two games, both losses.

He’s traditionally wrecked the Colts’ defense. In 12 matchups vs Indy, Henry has run for 1,045 yards and six scores. Prior to that injury, he had posted four straight 100-yard games on the ground.

Taylor, the reigning rushing champion, had 1,811 yards and 18 TD’s to lead the NFL in both categories last year. He also posted a league-best 2,171 yards from scrimmage.

Who but Jonathan Taylor for our first TD of the year?

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/oJJMnRWXRv

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 11, 2022

Coming into this game, however, Taylor has struggled and his usage has plummeted. Against Kansas City, he was limited to 71 yards on 21 carries, a game after rushing nine times for 54 yards in a 24-0 loss to Jacksonville.

Those 30 carries are one less than the opening-week tie against the Texans, when Taylor ran for 161 yards and a touchdown. Even with the slow start, Taylor is fourth in the NFL at 95.3 yards per game.

Tennessee vs Indianapolis Betting Outlook

Defense should play a key factor Sunday. Indy’s defense is third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (77), and they’re first in rushing yards per attempt at a paltry 2.6.

They could also potentially get a boost too, as Shaquille Leonard is expected to make his debut this season, after offseason back surgery.

Saquon Barkley had himself a day against the #Titans @NFLFilms 🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/EMbhsdC9gk

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 13, 2022

Tennessee’s run defense is going to be stressed, and they’ve already folded plenty early in the year. The Titans are last in yards allowed per carry (5.8) and 30th in rush yards per game (145). They have given up 24 first downs on the ground.

Perhaps this is the game where the Colts’ offensive line — the league’s highest paid, by the way — starts earning their keep. That they’ve allowed the 3rd-most sacks is one thing, but the pressure is rattling Matt Ryan.

The veteran has been blitzed at a top-five rate, and has fumbled an NFL-worst seven times. Ryan was under siege all game against the Chiefs, as he was sacked five times.

STRIPPED!

Dunlap with the pressure and Matt Ryan has his second fumble of the day.#KCvsIND pic.twitter.com/XgRzxPKcU0

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 25, 2022

Ryan Tannehill was dropped 47 times last season, second only to Joe Burrow, so four sacks in three games is a win for the Titans.

We’ll see how they stack up against a Colts’ defense that pressured Patrick Mahomes on nearly 40% of his throws last week.

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Titans vs Colts Pick

It took a litany of KC goof-ups for Tennessee to pull off an upset last week. Meanwhile, the Titans built a big lead and barely hung on to land the plane.

The Titans have been road warriors in their division, winning eight straight away from home in AFC South stadiums. That’s second only to the Chiefs’ current road dominance inside the AFC West (13 straight).

Indy is putting up just 13.3 points a contest, and the Titans are at 17, though both teams did cross the 20-point threshold a week ago.

Clashing stats make betting the total a toss up: the under is 8-0 in the Colts’ last eight games, while the over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 Tennessee games in October.

For that reason, let’s ride the visitors here. In what is expected to be a close game, those points will matter.

The Pick:  

• Titans +3.5 (-110); 1 unit to win 0.91 units
• Week 3 record: 1-2; Overall: 2-4 ATS, 1-0 O/U, -4.67 units