Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 10

• Buffalo is a 3-point favorite over Minnesota in the Vikings vs Bills odds for Sunday’s Week 10 matchup
• Bills starting QB Josh Allen is officially questionable with an elbow injury
• The latest Vikings vs Bills odds can be found below, along with injury news and best bets

Will he or won’t he play. That’s the big question surrounding Bills QB Josh Allen this week, as there’s no official word on whether or not he’ll be under center when Buffalo (6-2, 3-0 home) hosts the Vikings (7-1, 3-1 away) on Sunday.

Allen missed practice all week thanks to an injured elbow on his throwing arm, before making a brief appearance on Friday. As we’ll explore, online sportsbooks don’t expect Allen to suit up in the Week 10 NFL odds, and neither do bettors.

Vikings vs Bills Odds

Odds as of November 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

The Bills are currently 3-point favorites, which is a far cry from the number they opened at. Prior to the news of Allen’s injury, Buffalo was favored by 9 points, but the line has been trending hard towards the Vikings over the past few days.

As of Friday night, 60% of the spread bets and 64% of the spread handle are on Minnesota, and if that number keeps ticking up this game could close under a field goal.

Kickoff for this Week 10 tilt is set for 1 pm ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Parrk, NY, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is currently calling for cool, 39 degree temperatures, with a 40% chance of a rain-snow mix and 15 mph sustained winds.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Allen suffered his elbow injury last week in the Bills shocking 20-17 loss to the Jets. If he can’t go, journeyman Case Keenum will get the start against one of his six former teams.

Keenum has started just two games since the 2019 season, winning both as a member of the Browns. The 10-year-veteran had the best season of his career with Minnesota back in 2017, winning a playoff game and posting an 11-3 record.

Here is Josh Allen at the end of #Bills practice today.

No brace or sleeve seen on right elbow, but appears to be taped.

Once he notices media inside the team's fieldhouse, Allen runs off to locker room. pic.twitter.com/fsCvEO2nBk

— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) November 11, 2022

Allen’s injury isn’t the only one that will significantly affect Buffalo’s winning prospects. Their defense has been hit hard by injuries as both starting safeties Jordan Poyer (elbow) and Micah Hyde (neck) are out. Starting defensive end Greg Rousseau will also sit with an ankle injury as will rookie corner Kaiir Elam.

The Bills’ defense ranks fourth per DVOA, but have struggled to get to the quarterback. Buffalo is 20th in pressure rate this season and has forced the sixth fewest hurries. That’s good news for Vikings starter Kirk Cousins, who should have plenty of time to throw in a clean pocket.

As for the Bills’ offense, the unit is in great shape aside from Allen and there’s a strong chance they’re being undervalued here. Keenum and Diggs had an incredible connection when they played together in Minnesota, while Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox give Keenum plenty of secondary options.

The Vikings’ defense ranks 19th per DVOA, and are one of the worst teams in the league at defending number one receivers.

Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

It’s possible that Minnesota is one of the worst 7-1 teams you’ll ever find. Their lone win against a team with a winning record came against Miami, and that was a game where the Dolphins used two back-up quarterbacks and still outgained the Vikings by 224 yards.

Minnesota has been outplayed in most games this season, but keep finding a way to win. They’re 6-0 in one score contests and that simply isn’t sustainable. Last week in Washington epitomizes their season, as they fell behind 17-7 in the fourth quarter only to rally late and win by three.

YOU LIKE THAT?!?! pic.twitter.com/ALtMhLM9FB

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 6, 2022

The advanced metric community thinks they’re a fraud as DVOA ranks them them 18th overall, behind sub .500 teams like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville and Denver.

If you’re looking to build a case for the Vikings it starts and ends with Justin Jefferson. The third-year star wideout ranks second in the league in receiving yards and is averaging 124 yards through the air over his past five games.

Vikings vs Bills Prediction

The drop off from Allen to Keenum is significant, but there are plenty of teams that would love a backup with Keenum’s resume. Minnesota might have been a value when the line was +6 or higher, but now the love has gone too far.

Vikings vs Bills Last 5 Meetings

This Buffalo offense is still incredibly explosive and Keenum can put his guys in a position to succeed. Laying three points with the Super Bowl odds favorites is a fine play, especially when you consider how much the Vikings have been overachieving this season. They rank 20th in offensive yards per drive, and 16th in defensive yards per drive allowed. Not exactly the calling card of a juggernaut.

Minnesota has also struggled against the spread posting a 3-5 mark, and failing to cover against three of their four backup starters they’ve already faced.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -3 (-110)

2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 6-5, +0.3 units