EFL Odds to Win Title & Earn Promotion to Premier League
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Updated: April 8, 2020 at 12:22 pm EDTPublished:
- With 18 games remaining, Leeds and Norwich are the EFL title favorites
- Six teams have a realistic chance at promotion to the Premier League
- See the latest odds and where teams stand in the table.
The race for the EFL title is in the home stretch and two teams — Leeds and Norwich — are well ahead of the pack in the latest futures odds.
The battle for promotion to the Premier League for the 2019-20 season is also in its final stages. There are three spots up for grabs, as always. The top-two EFL finishers earn automatic promotion, while the 3rd to 6th-place finishers compete in a four-team playoff for the final spot.
When it comes to promotion, two teams look like near-locks at this point; two more are right around even money; and a final pair retain a realistic chance but have some work to do.
Here’s where the odds stand heading into this weekend (Jan. 26-27).
2019 EFL Title and EPL Promotion Odds
| Team | Odds to win 2019 EFL Title | Odds to Earn Promotion to EPL |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | +110 (11/10) | -275 (4/11) |
| Norwich City | +275 (11/4) | -140 (5/7) |
| Sheffield United | +450 (9/2) | +105 (20/19) |
| West Brom | +550 (11/2) | +110 (11/10) |
| Middlesbrough | +2000 (20/1) | +300 (3/1) |
| Derby County | +2500 (25/1) | +350 (7/2) |
| Aston Villa | +6600 (66/1) | +900 (9/1) |
| Bristol City | +10000 (100/1) | +1200 (12/1) |
| Nottingham Forest | +10000 (100/1) | +2200 (22/1) |
| Birmingham | +15000 (150/1) | +2200 (22/1) |
| Stoke City | +20000 (200/1) | +2000 (20/1) |
| Swansea | OFF | +2000 (20/1) |
| Hull | OFF | +1600 (16/1) |
| Blackburn | OFF | +4000 (40/1) |
| QPR | OFF | +4000 (40/1) |
| Brentford | OFF | +8000 (80/1) |
| Preston | OFF | +15000 (150/1) |
| Sheffield Wednesday | OFF | +25000 (250/1) |
| Wigan Athletic | OFF | +25000 (250/1) |
Leeds United
Through 28 matches, Leeds are atop the table with 54 points. There is cause for concern, however, as they have lost three of their last four and are only tied for second in goal difference at +17. This year is also a marked turnaround from last season, when they wound up 13th in the EFL with a -5 goal difference.
[Leeds] have lost three of their last four [and] wound up 13th in the EFL [last season].
They at least have a favorable schedule remaining, with road matches against Ipswich (24th), Reading (22nd), and Rotterham (21st) still to be played.
Norwich City
If Leeds continues to falter, Norwich is waiting to take over top spot, currently on 53 points (just one back of the leaders). Unlike their main title challengers, the Canaries suffered their worst stretch at the start of the year, losing three of the first five.
They have only lost one of their last 16 league matches, as of January 25th.
That is not to say that they have been perfect, however. Four of their last six have ended in draws. If they don’t capture the full three points more often down the stretch, they stand to be overtaken by the third and fourth-placed teams…
Sheffield United
Sheffield are currently tied on points with West Brom (50), but sit fourth in the table due to goal difference, where they trail the Baggies +22 to +17.
They have been streakier than any team this year. They already have three four-game win streaks; no team in the league has won five in a row. If they put together another run like that, they will likely find themselves in the top two.
It’s difficult to figure out why [Sheffield United is] ahead of West Brom in the odds.
It’s difficult to figure out why they are ahead of West Brom in the odds — both for the title and promotion. The remaining schedule features relatively easy home matches with Rotterham (21st), Ipswich (24th), Millwall (19th), and Reading (22nd), but also includes away matches with Leeds (1st), Norwich (2nd), and West Brom (4th).
West Brom
Currently third in the table with 50 points, there is reason to like West Brom as a title underdog at +550. They have the best goal difference in the league (+22), are 7-4-1 in their last 12, and already have a 2-1-0 record against the teams above them in the table. That includes a huge 4-3 away win over Norwich on Matchday 3.
A year after being relegated from the Prem, the Baggies have a great chance to return to the top flight. The main reason for caution is that they have a tough away schedule remaining. They only have one away match left against a bottom-five team (Reading).
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough and Derby represent the cutoff for title contenders, sitting at a distant +2000 and +2500 to win the league. They are 5th and 6th in the table with 47 and 46 points, respectively.
Middlesbrough has a much better goal difference though (+11 vs +5) and is the best team in the league defensively, conceding just 20 goals in 28 matches. They have also lost a league-low five matches all season.
Even if they don’t reach the top two spots and earn automatic promotion, they will be an absolute nightmare to deal with in the playoff.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
