Arkansas State vs Troy Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines for Sun Belt Title Game

• Arkansas State is a slight 1.5-point favorite vs Troy in the Sun Belt Title game
• The winner grabs the lone automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament
• See the Arkansas State vs Troy odds, along with my predictions and picks, below

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It’s only fitting that the top two teams in the Sun Belt battle for the right to go to the NCAA Tournament. It gets settled Monday night when the Arkansas State Red Wolves (24-9, 13-5 Sun Belt) meet the Troy Trojans (22-10, 13-5 Sun Belt). Monday’s college basketball odds have this pretty close to a pick’em with Arkansas State a 1.5-point favorite. Each team picked up a head-to-head win this season. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction (Sun Belt Title Game)

I’m looking at just how competitive the Arkansas State Red Wolves have been since January 11, and believe they’re built for this moment. Since Beating Troy on January 11, the Red Wolves have gone 17-4 over their last 21 games.

Those four losses have been by a combined 11 points, with two losses by a single point, including to these same Trojans, 71-70, in mid-February.

It’s important now because they’ve made their way through the Sun Belt Conference Tourney and stared danger in the face, winning a close 77-74 decision over Marshall, and then matching that three-point margin in a 74-71 win over South Alabama.

Troy carries the exact same five-game winning streak into the final, but they haven’t faced as much resistance en route to the championship game. Their closest margin of victory has been 12 points, and they’ve laid beatings on Old Dominion (75-59) and James Madison (79-60) in their march to the championship final.

Arkansas State vs Troy: Notable Sun Belt Rankings

The Trojans’ defense is among the best in the Sun Belt, limiting opponents to a 64.9 scoring clip on the season, which ranks third. During their win streak, the no team has crossed 70 points, holding their last three opponents to 60 points or fewer.

Arkansas State is in fourth, but definitely a tier lower, allowing 69.4 points. Teams have been able to top 70 points in three of their last five wins.

COOPER WITH THE DAGGER 🗡️#TakeTheStairs | #OneTROY⚔️🏀 pic.twitter.com/QOz4AQjejR

— Troy Trojans MBB (@TroyTrojansMBB) March 10, 2025

They have had a problem with fouling a bit too much, and a bit too close for comfort, both in their head-to-head matchups in the Sun Belt Tournament, and against Troy this season. In those four games, the Red Wolves have allowed at least 26 free throws to their opponents.

However, the Red Wolves have the option of outscoring their problems. They own the best offense in the conference, averaging 79.1 points per game, a distinct advantage over Troy, that sits in seventh at 73.3.

It should be quite the guard showdown in this one, as Troy will feature the Sun Belt player of the year in Tayton Conerway, while the Red Wolves counter with Taryn Todd, named to the All-Sun Belt First Team.

Arkansas State vs Troy Pick

• Arkansas State -1.5 (-112) at DraftKings

Don’t be afraid to go against the numbers here, as Troy is the best cover team in the Sun Belt, going an impressive 20-11-0 against the spread, the only team to hit the 20-win cover mark in the conference.

Arkansas State is also a solid cover team though, going 18-13-1 ATS, the fourth-best rate in the Sun Belt.

While Troy’s defense has been stellar, they have had their struggles in close games. Including that key win over the Red Wolves, the Trojans have just a 3-6 record in their last nine games decided by seven points or less.

Arkansas State vs Troy Betting Lines

Odds as of March 10 at DraftKings. See SBD’s DraftKings review for the latest sign-up promos.

Both teams will be playing their third game in three days, so fatigue will surely play some sort of factor, and that’s why Arkansas State’s recent reps in close games – and an offense that can generate points – should help them clinch that solo spot to the tournament.