Fresno St vs Boise St Odds, Lines, and Spread (Dec. 28)

Odds as of December 27th, 2021.

Justin Hutson’s team got out to a 44-18 halftime lead over the Wildcats the last time out and never looked back. The team’s leading scorer, Orlando Robinson, had a game-high 22 points in the blowout victory, while Anthony Holland chipped in 10.

Meantime, Leon Rice’s squad got 19 points from Abu Kigab (which included a 9-for-11 night at the charity stripe) as the Broncos scratched out a six-point win against a Power 5 program. Marcus Shaver Jr. added 15 in the grind-it-out win.

Junkyard Dogs

Fresno State has only played in the NCAA Tournament once (2016) in the last 20 years. But if Hutson’s group continues to play defense like it has — while utilizing Robinson — the Bulldogs may have a ticket to the Big Dance at then of the current campaign.

After last night's 69-43 win at Weber State, Fresno State (10-3) rose to 3rd in the nation in scoring defense (54.9 PPG) and No. 50 in the NCAA's NET rankings.#GoDogs | #PrideOfTheValley | #ValleyTough pic.twitter.com/IThUjS3mgN

— Fresno State Men’s Basketball (@FresnoStateMBB) December 24, 2021

The Dogs rate in the top-60 of six defensive categories on KenPom, including defensive adjusted efficiency (43rd) and defensive 2-point field goal percentage (21st). A big reason why scoring is so challenging for opponents is the big man in the middle.

Orlando Robinson from Fresno State is the type of fringe big I really want to bet on. 7'0, 235 averaging 18.3 PPG with a 7.6% BLK%, 2.5% STL%, 23.3% AST%, 11.3% ORB%, 60.4% TS, only shooting 29.6% from 3 but he is shooting 2.5 per game and he is shooting 80% from the line

— Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14) December 20, 2021

The near 7-footer from Las Vegas seems to be working his way into the 2022 NBA Draft mix. He was a G League Elite Camp invitee this past summer and has shown improved ball skills to go along with a solid face-up game through the first 13 games this season. 

In a half-court type of game — which Tuesday’s affair figures to be — the big man could prove to be a difference-maker.

Rice is Nice

As efficient as Fresno State is on the defensive end, its counterpart in the Treasure Valley is even better. Boise State ranks in the top-25 of four defensive categories on KenPom, including defensive adjusted efficiency (19th) and defensive effective field goal percentage (23rd).

It appears Boise State is finding their stride… winning 7 of last 9 games (including 5 in a row) and a Top 25 ranked scoring defense. No doubt @BroncoSportsMBB will be in the running for the MW title.

— Richie Schueler (@RichieSchueler) December 22, 2021

While it remains to be seen if the 6-foot-10 Serbian import Mladen Arums can neutralize Robinson, the Broncos do possess an intriguing senior duo in Kigab and Shaver. The combo combine to average over 27 points (with Kigab going for 14.8 and Shaver averaging 12.5) and over 11 rebounds (Kigab grabs 6.8 and Shaver snags 4.3) per game

Boise State MBB goes on the road and beats Wazzou. Not just a football school, they always got some players in hoops. Abu Kigab from Ontario, 19 PTS/5 REB. Couple years back they had Chandler Hutchinson. More than just the blue turf in Boise.

— SkinsHoops86 (@SkinsHoops86) December 23, 2021

While Fresno State owns solid wins over a handful of reputable West Coast programs this year (including Santa Clara and UC Irvine), Boise State has knocked off teams from the SEC (Ole Miss), AAC (Temple) and Pac-12 (Washington State). Again, slightly better resume.

The Pick

In a defensive slugfest — as this one appears to be headed — keep an eye on which team handles the ball better. The Bulldogs may have an advantage in this spot.

As @FresnoStateMBB prepares for @MW_MBB opener at Boise State, here’s one stat that impresses:

Fresno State leads the MW in turnover margin with 3.08, the best mark through 13 games in the Hutson era.

Coupled with their No. 1 scoring defense, that’s clean and mean basketball. pic.twitter.com/RsqImQAQAT

— Gabe Camarillo (@gabecamarillo_) December 28, 2021

Neither team has not lost by more than eight points in any of its three losses. With the spread only being four, it’s hard to pick a winner.

That’s why I’m ‘m looking at the under as the bet in this spot. With this being the conference opener and both team being really good on the defensive end, going under the total feels like the best bet.

Pick: Under 117.5 (-110)