Wisconsin vs Illinois Picks and Odds (Feb. 2)

Odds as of February 1st, 2022 at FanDuel.

Illinois is a 6.5-point home favorite over Wisconsin, while the total is on the low end at 140. The -280 moneyline price for the Fighting Illini amounts to a 73.7% implied win probability, while the Badgers’ +225 odds to win is equal to 30.8% implied probability.

Both teams are among the top-20 NCAA Tournament title odds favorites. Illinois is 11th at +2350, while Wisconsin is 18th at +5000.

Greg Gard’s team committed just seven turnovers against the Golden Gophers and had a 13-4 edge in points off giveaways. Player of the Year candidate Johnny Davis scored the game’s final six points and finished with 16 to go along with a career-high 15 rebounds in the victory.

Meantime, Brad Underwood’s club saw the return of big man Kofi Cockburn after a two-game absence due to a concussion. The 7-foot junior scored 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the narrow win over the Wildcats.

Wisconsin vs Illinois Head-to-Head History

The Badgers have lost three straight to the Fighting Illini — with the last two defeats coming last year with both teams ranked (like Wednesday’s tilt). But prior to the trio of losses, Whiskey owned a 15-game win streak against the Illini program, dating back to the 2010-11 season. The 2021-22 version of the Badgers, led by Davis, have been tough to beat anywhere — including a 5-1 mark on the road.

The best player in college basketball.

Step into the spotlight, @JohnnyDavis

💥 https://t.co/N74SMYohvQ#HeresJohnny pic.twitter.com/s2UBHRlivK

— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) January 31, 2022

The homegrown sophomore star came through in the clutch, but actually saw his scoring average drop to 21.4 points a game. He’s also putting up 7.9 boards a night and has been an absolute revelation for UW — which has been ranked as high as No. 8 this season (after being predicted to finish 10th in the Big Ten preseason poll).

#Illini coach Brad Underwood was on 🔥 today about Trent Frazier being left off the Naismith college DPOY watch list. This award is usually skewed towards blocks & steals but as Underwood notes it’s usually “a night off” for the guy Trent is checking. Let’s dive into that… (1/7) pic.twitter.com/0LMruNt9Fl

— Tyler Cottingham (@TylerCott) January 28, 2022

A key matchup against Illinois in this conference showdown will be how Illinois guard Frazier defends Davis. Following Underwood’s tirade, this game seems like a perfect opportunity to prove his point.

Cockburn AND Curbelo Could Be the Difference

Illinois’ stud post converted 10-of-17 shots in his comeback outing against Northwestern, while the rest of his teammates combined for a dismal 12-of-34 (35.3%) clip from the field. But, yes, Cockburn means that much to this team.

Kofi Cockburn is the Only NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Player Averaging over 20/10 this season (21.1 PPG, 11.6 RPG) 😤 pic.twitter.com/Rkm2AstpdE

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) January 30, 2022

Now, more good news: Underwood said point guard Andre Curbelo will be available against Bucky. The sophomore has missed 13 games this season — including a nearly a two-month absence due to a concussion. But he dazzled two weeks ago against Purdue, scoring 20 points in an eventual 96-88 loss in double-overtime. Then, he was forced to miss the last two games and most of the Maryland game due to COVID.

His all-around game and energy will be a big factor for a team that has averaged only 60 points per game over the last three outings (compared to averaging 77.2 per contest all season).

Wisconsin vs Illinois Prediction

The environment at at State Farm will be electric for this one. But don’t count on the Badgers to be intimidated by the atmosphere. Gard’s group average just 8.4 turnovers per game — which leads all of Division I.

Another key stat — especially for this one with the line being 6.5 points: UW improved to 10-1 in games decided by six points or fewer following the Minnesota victory. The Badgers win close games.

I love Illinois getting key players back. But Davis is having a magical season and I think it continues in Champaign.

Pick: Wisconsin moneyline (+225)