2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker
Updated August 23, 2019
- Track the average odds to win the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament for all major D1 basketball programs.
- Visualize how each team’s odds have changed throughout the year.
- View teams individually or alongside others trending in the same direction.
The 353 schools that start the year with National Championship aspirations will be whittled down to 68 spots on Selection Sunday on Mar. 15, 2020.
In the graphs below, we have gathered the odds for every power-conference team and the top mid majors from multiple sports-betting sites and calculated their average odds at regular intervals over the course of the season.
Use the graphs to see who the current favorites are and how their 2020 March Madness futures have changed, starting from when the buzzer sounded in the Texas Tech vs Virginia 2019 title game and going right up to the 2020 Final Four in New Orleans.
2020 NCAAM Favorites
- [Aug. 23] Michigan State continues to lead the pack at +650, followed by Kentucky at +750, which edged ahead of Duke (+850) this month.
- [Aug. 16] Florida is the latest team to jump into the top-ten (+1600), while Michigan is the latest team to drop out, falling all the way to +2500.
- [Aug. 8] Louisville (+1600) has bumped Gonzaga (+2000) out of the top ten.
- [July 17] Virginia (+920) and Michigan (+2100) have bounced back a little after suffering big drops earlier this offseason.
- [June 28] There has been huge movement all over the board: Michigan dropped from +1600 to +2800; Kansas rose from +1800 to +1200. At least ten more teams rose or fell by equally big margins. See graphs below!.
- [June 14] There continues to be a gap between the top-four favorites (Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Virginia) and the next tier or teams, which starts with UNC at +1400. The biggest mover is Memphis, as Penny Hardaway secured the #1 recruiting class in the nation.
- [May 30] The odds have not changed today, even though there were clear winners and losers at the deadline to withdraw from the 2019 NBA Draft. Michigan State has edged past Kentucky as the second favorite, on average, while they remain the outright favorite at Bovada (see table below).
- [May 22] Sportsbooks are somewhat split on Michigan after the team hired Juwan Howard to replace John Beilein. They are as short as +1200 and as long as +1800, but remain at +1400 on average.
- [May 13] Early NBA draft declarations and the final recruit signings of 2019 have shifted the odds. Duke is now the outright favorite after landing another tremendous recruiting class.
- [April 11] Virginia has opened with the third-best odds after winning the school’s first title in 2019. Kentucky is the early betting favorite for 2020, followed by Duke, which is likely to lose Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish.
2020 NCAA Tournament Odds at BetOnline
| Team | 2019 Result | Odds to win 2020 March Madness at BetOnline |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | Final Four | +700 |
| Duke | Elite Eight | +900 |
| Kansas | Round of 32 | +900 |
| Kentucky | Elite Eight | +900 |
| Memphis | Did not qualify | +900 |
| Virginia | Champion | +1200 |
| Florida | Round of 32 | +1400 |
| Louisville | Round of 64 | +1600 |
| Maryland | Round of 32 | +1600 |
| North Carolina | Sweet 16 | +1600 |
*Odds taken Aug 23, 2019.
The early rounds of March Madness are known for wild upsets, but when it comes down to brass tacks, the favorites tend to come out on top, a fact exemplified by the following trends:
- Eleven of the last twelve champions have been repeat winners.
- Virginia broke a run of 11 straight in 2019 by winning its first National Championship.
- Only one of the top-ten favorites in 2020 — Gonzaga — is in search of its first title. (Oregon won in 1939, in case you forgot
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Odds
- UNC has won the most national championships among ACC teams (6 titles).
- Duke (5 titles), Louisville (3 titles if you count 2013), and NC State (2 titles) are the only other ACC teams with more than one championship.
- Nine of the current ACC teams have never won a championship.
| ACC Team | National Championships | Year(s) |
|---|---|---|
| UNC | 6 | 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017 |
| Duke | 5 | 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015 |
| Louisville | 3 | 1980, 1986, 2013 |
| NC State | 2 | 1974, 1983 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 2003 |
| Virginia | 1 | 2019 |
| Boston College | 0 | N/A |
| Clemson | 0 | N/A |
| Florida State | 0 | N/A |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | N/A |
| Miami | 0 | N/A |
| Notre Dame | 0 | N/A |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | N/A |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | N/A |
| Wake Forest | 0 | N/A |
Big 12 Conference Odds
- Kansas (2008) remains the only Big 12 team to have won a title since the conference was formed in 1994.
- Kansas also has the most all-time titles (3) among current Big 12 teams.
- Oklahoma State (2 titles) is the only other modern Big 12 team that’s won a national championship.
- Only one Big 12 school has never reached the Final Four: TCU.
| Big 12 Team | National Championships | Year(s) | Final Fours (Most Recent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 3 | 1952, 1988, 2008 | 14 (2018) |
| Oklahoma State | 2 | 1945, 1946 | 6 (2004) |
| Oklahoma | 0 | N/A | 5 (2016) |
| Kansas State | 0 | N/A | 4 (1964) |
| Texas | 0 | N/A | 3 (2003) |
| Baylor | 0 | N/A | 2 (1950) |
| West Virginia | 0 | N/A | 2 (2010) |
| Iowa State | 0 | N/A | 1 (1944) |
| Texas Tech | 0 | N/A | 1 (2019) |
| TCU | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Big East Conference Odds
- Three teams in the modern Big East have won a national championship: Villanova (3), Georgetown (1), and Marquette (1).
- Three others have made at least one title game: Butler (2), St. John’s (1), and Seton Hall (1).
- Two Big East teams have never reached the Final Four: Creighton and Xavier.
| Big East Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Villanova | 3 | Champion (1985, 2016, 2018) |
| Georgetown | 1 | Champion (1984) |
| Marquette | 1 | Champion (1977) |
| Butler | 0 | Runner-up (2010, 2011) |
| Seton Hall | 0 | Runner-up (1989) |
| St. John’s | 0 | Runner-up (1952) |
| DePaul | 0 | Final Four (1943, 1979) |
| Providence | 0 | Final Four (1973, 1987) |
| Creighton | 0 | Elite Eight (1941) |
| Xavier | 0 | Elite Eight (2004, 2008, 2017) |
Big Ten Conference Odds
- Indiana (5 titles) and Michigan State (2) are the only Big Ten teams to have claimed more than one national championship.
- Four other Big Ten teams have won one national title: Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.
- But no Big Ten team has won the title since 2002 (Maryland).
- Despite making the tournament seven times, Nebraska has never even won a game in the NCAA tournament.
| Big Ten Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 5 | Champion (1940, 1953, 1976, 1981, 1987) |
| Michigan State | 2 | Champion (1979, 2000) |
| Maryland | 1 | Champion (2002) |
| Michigan | 1 | Champion (1989) |
| Ohio State | 1 | Champion (1960) |
| Wisconsin | 1 | Champion (1941) |
| Illinois | 0 | Runner-up (2005) |
| Iowa | 0 | Runner-up (1956) |
| Purdue | 0 | Runner-up (1969) |
| Minnesota | 0 | Final Four (1997) |
| Penn State | 0 | Final Four (1954) |
| Rutgers | 0 | Final Four (1976) |
| Northwestern | 0 | Round of 32 (2017) |
| Nebraska | 0 | Round of 64 (0-7 all-time tournament record) |
Pacific-12 Conference (PAC-12) Odds
- Once upon a time, UCLA was the dominant force in college basketball, and their 11 national championships are three more than the next closest team (Kentucky, 8).
- But the mighty Bruins have not won the NCAA tournament in nearly 25 years, dating back to 1995.
- The drought for the Pac-12, as a whole, dates back almost as far, stretching to Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona squad. The conference hasn’t even had a finalist since UCLA in 2006.
- UCLA remains the only Pac-12 school to have won multiple national titles.
| PAC-12 Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 11 | Champion (1964, 1965, 1967-73, 1975, 1995) |
| Arizona | 1 | Champion (1997) |
| California | 1 | Champion (1959) |
| Oregon | 1 | Champion (1939) |
| Stanford | 1 | Champion (1942) |
| Utah | 1 | Champion (1944) |
| Washington State | 0 | Runner-up (1941) |
| Colorado | 0 | Final Four (1942, 1955) |
| Oregon State | 0 | Final Four (1949, 1963) |
| USC | 0 | Final Four (1940, 1954) |
| Washington | 0 | Final Four (1953) |
| Arizona State | 0 | Elite Eight (1961, 1963, 1975) |
Southeast Conference (SEC) Odds
- Kentucky has the second-most national championships all-time with eight, but only one since the turn of the century (2012), despite regularly bringing in the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation, including every year from 2008-2013, per 247Sports.com.
- Only three of the 14 current SEC schools have won a national championship. None of the others have even made the title game.
- Ole Miss and Texas A&M have the worst March Madness track record, never advancing past the Sweet 16.
| SEC Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 8 | Champion (1948-49, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998, 2012) |
| Florida | 2 | Champion (2006-07) |
| Arkansas | 1 | Champion (1994) |
| Auburn | 0 | Final Four (2019) |
| Georgia | 0 | Final Four (1983) |
| LSU | 0 | Final Four (1953, 1981, 1986, 2006) |
| Mississippi State | 0 | Final Four (1996) |
| South Carolina | 0 | Final Four (2017) |
| Alabama | 0 | Elite Eight (2004) |
| Missouri | 0 | Elite Eight (1944, 1976, 1994, 2002, 2009) |
| Tennessee | 0 | Elite Eight (2010) |
| Vanderbilt | 0 | Elite Eight (1965) |
| Ole Miss | 0 | Sweet 16 (2001) |
| Texas A&M | 0 | Sweet 16 (1951, 1969, 1980, 2007, 2016, 2018) |
Top Mid-Majors Odds
Average Odds for Way-Too-Early Top 10
| ESPN Ranking | Team | Average Odds (Aug. 16) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan State | +650 |
| #2 | Kansas | +1000 |
| #3 | Kentucky | +750 |
| #4 | Florida | +1600 |
| #5 | Louisville | +1600 |
| #6 | Duke | +850 |
| #7 | Gonzaga | +2000 |
| #8 | UNC | +1400 |
| #9 | Villanova | +2000 |
| #10 | Maryland | +2200 |
Usually, it’s not wise to go looking too far outside the preseason top-10 when picking a team to win the National Championship. Of the last eight champions, UConn (2014) was the lowest ranked, sitting at #18 in the preseason. Six of the last seven champions have been ranked #6 or higher in the preseason AP Poll.
- 2018-19 Virginia: preseason #5
- 2017-18 Villanova: preseason #6
- 2016-17 UNC: preseason #6
- 2015-16 Villanova: preseason #11
- 2014-15 Duke: preseason #4
- 2013-14 UConn: preseason #18
- 2012-13 Louisville: preseason #2
- 2011-12 Kentucky: preseason #2
The first AP Poll won’t be out until recruiting classes have been finalized and underclassmen have made their decisions on the NBA Draft, but ESPN has its way-too-early Top 25 out, and there is a stark contrast between their top-ten teams and the top-ten betting favorites, which you can find in the first table on this page.