Minnesota vs Iowa Predictions, Picks & Lines for Big Ten Rivalry Matchup

• The Iowa Hawkeyes are 8.5 point favorites to defeat the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten grudge match
• This series has been decidedly one-sided in recent years in favor of the Hawkeyes
• See below for my Minnesota vs Iowa prediction, picks and updated odds

It’s a Big Ten showdown Saturday afternoon, between two teams very familiar with each other, in search of the yearly ‘Floyd of Rosedale’ trophy awarded to the victor in this bitter rivalry.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-2, 2-4-1 ATS) visit Iowa to renew a rivalry against the Hawkeyes (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS). Iowa has beaten up on Minnesota in the last decade, snatching nine victories in ten attempts, though the Golden Gophers were victorious in 2023. The books believe Iowa will make it 10 of 11 against Minnesota, pegging the Hawkeyes as significant home favorites in the college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm ET from Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Minnesota vs Iowa Prediction & Picks

• My prediction: Minnesota +8.5 (-110)

I’m backing the Golden Gophers to cover the 8.5 points. Seven of the last ten meetings were decided by one score, and Minnesota won their last trip to Iowa City 12-10.

The quarterback battle features Drake Lindsey (MIN) against Mark Gronowski (IA). The former is a pure pocket passer, with a 62% passing efficiency, with ten TD passes and three interceptions. He has two rushing touchdowns on the season, but that’s not a big part of his game.

Lindsey’s 1,437 passing yards are second-most all-time by a Minnesota freshman. He’s been solid at home but struggled on the road with just 149.5 yards per game away from Minneapolis.

His counterpart, Gronowski, however, is pretty well the opposite. He hasn’t tossed for 200 yards in a game this season, with just three TD strikes and four picks. He’s extremely dangerous with his legs, racking up ten total TDs, tied for most among FBS quarterbacks.

He’s found pay dirt in all seven outings, making his odds the shortest of anyone competing to record a TD on FanDuel at -185. Last week, he rushed for 130 yards versus Penn State – Iowa’s first 100-yard rushing game by a QB since 1973.

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Key Offensive & Defensive Stats (Out of 18 Big Ten Conference Teams)

Both squads struggle offensively, ranking near the bottom of the 18-team Big Ten in total offense. But it’s the defenses that shine, with Iowa extremely stout, ranking inside the top-five in the four main categories, and Minnesota not far behind them.

Minnesota vs Iowa Recent H2H History

The recent history between these two rivals is rather lopsided, with Iowa winning nine of the last ten meetings. However, it’s not as if the Hawkeyes have been blowing out the Golden Gophers often, with seven of the duels being one-score game.

That includes 2023, when Minnesota had their lone victory, 12-10. Each of the last five meetings in Iowa City have been decided by seven points or fewer – crucial context for this prediction.

Iowa has won three of four at home on the campaign, while Minnesota has dropped both road affairs. In the last two Hawkeyes outings at Kinnick Stadium, they won by just one point versus unranked Penn State 25-24 last weekend, and gave #2-ranked Indiana their toughest test of the campaign, but the Hawkeyes were defeated 20-15.

Minnesota’s coming off their best defensive showing. They crushed #25 Nebraska 24-6 with 186 rushing yards. Darius Taylor exploded for 148 yards, his most since the 2023 Quick Lane Bowl. Anthony Smith leads the Big Ten with 28 QB pressures and 7.0 sacks.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 pm ET on Oct. 24.

Iowa is favored by 8.5 points at home with standard -110 juice on both sides of the spread. The Hawkeyes moneyline sits at -340, meaning you’d need to risk $340 to win $100 on a straight-up victory.

Minnesota offers significantly more value on the moneyline at +275, returning $275 on a $100 wager if the Golden Gophers pull off the upset.

The total is set at 39.5 points with -115 on the over point total the favorite. Our SBD model prediction has a 22.8-19.4 victory for Iowa, but that points to the Golden Gophers covering the spread. I like them to do so also, given that they’ve kept it within a TD in seven of ten meetings. The -340 price on the moneyline represents an implied win probability of 77.3%.