Minnesota vs Penn State Prediction, Odds, Spread & Best Bets

• The Minnesota Golden Gophers visit the Penn State Nittany Lions in Big Ten action Saturday
• Penn State was crushed by Michigan last week, suffering their first loss of the season
• See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction

After watching their perfect season go up in smoke, the Penn State Nittany Lions will be under the white-hot spotlight in Week 8.

The 16th-ranked Nittany Lions  hope to stay in the New Year’s Six mix, when they host the unranked Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers are trying to right the ship themselves and avoid a third straight loss, after starting the year 4-0.

Both teams will likely be compromised at the most important position (more on that below).

It all gets underway on Saturday (October 22) from Beaver Stadium — the school’s 14th full-stadium Penn State White Out. You can watch the game live on ABC at 7:30pm ET.

Minnesota vs Penn State Odds

Odds as of October 19 from Barstool Sporstbook. And don’t forget to check out the Barstool Sportsbook promo code 

The college football odds have the ‘Lions as 5-point home favorites, in a game that features a total of 44.5.

Weather shouldn’t be an issue, though it will be a clear and cool 54 degrees at kickoff.

PSU Betting Outlook

The wheels came off in Ann Arbor, as Michigan punctured what had been one of the bet run defense in the nation en route to a dominating 41-17 victory.

Blake Corum to the HOUSE!!pic.twitter.com/FLm8DjJYkv

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) October 15, 2022

Penn State surrendered a whopping 418 yards rushing on a healthy 7.6 yard average per carry and four touchdowns. In building their 5-0 mark, the Nittany Lions had averaged fewer than 80 yards rushing per game.

To make matters worse, starting quarterback Sean Clifford left the game with what the team called an upper body injury. His status for Saturday is still up in the air.

Sean Clifford showing us how you lead a damn drive 😤💨 pic.twitter.com/fGBZjT9N8m

— Onward State (@OnwardState) October 15, 2022

Clifford didn’t do much in the passing game, going 7-for-19 for 120 yards, though he did rip off a 62-yard run to help Penn State back into the game after falling behind 13-0.

If he can’t go, 5-star recruit Drew Allar would get the call. He was 5-for-10 in relief of Clifford against Michigan. Allar has played in every game this season, throwing for 200 yards and a pair of TD’s on the year.

Minnesota Betting Outlook

While PSU is trying to lock a Jan 1 placement, the Golden Gophers are just trying to find their way back to the win column.

The offense, which hadn’t scored less than 34 points during a season-opening 4-game win streak, has tallied just 24 points total across the last two games.

The play that resulted in Tanner Morgan getting carted off. Hopefully he’s okay pic.twitter.com/rvkuKwhjV5

— Barstool College Football Show (@BarstoolCFB) October 15, 2022

Their defense, which hadn’t allowed more than 10 points in any contest, suddenly surrendered 20+ points in losses to Purdue (20-10) and last week’s defeat to Illinois (26-14).

They’re also unsettled at QB, with Tanner Morgan leaving the Illini game on a cart, though it was called an upper-body injury. His status for Saturday is yet to be determined.

Mohamed Ibrahim has now rushed for at least 100 yards in 14 consecutive games.

That is the longest streak by any player since Ezekiel Elliott did so in 15 straight games between the 2014-15 seasons. pic.twitter.com/fwSK1DX7GF

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 15, 2022

For Minny to be successful, they’ll need to get back to that dominating defense, which ranks fourth in scoring D, sixth in total defense, fifth in pass yards allowed, 20th in run defense and first in 3rd-down conversion rate.

Expect to also see a heavy diet of Mohamed Ibrahim. He ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game, and is coming off a loss where he rushed 15 times for 127 yards and a score.

Minnesota vs Penn State Pick

I see a PSU bounce back after an utterly forgettable loss. Losing Clifford and that experience under center hurts, but having Allar step into the spotlight ahead of schedule is not a bad thing.

Minnesota would need to turn to Athan Kaliakmanis if Morgan can’t go, and he had two interceptions in the loss to the Illini. Penn State features a great passing defense, which allows a 51.6% completion rate, which is fourth-best in the NCAA.

They have also forced 13 takeaways, which ranks 13th in FBS. Assuming their run defense finds their footing again, that should be enough to hold down the Gophers and get back into the win column.

The Pick:

• Penn State ML (-205); 2 units to win 1 unit
• Week 7 NCAAF Record: 1-0: Overall: 4-3 ATS, 1-1 o/u; +0.55 units