UNLV vs Boise State Prediction – Mountain West Championship Odds & Best Bets

• The Boise State Broncos are 4.5-point favorites vs the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game
• Boise State crushed UNLV 56-31 in a game on October 18
• See below for my UNLV vs Boise State prediction, best bet and odds

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The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (10-2, 6-2 Mountain West) will get another crack at the Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2 Mountain West), this time on a much grander stage: the Mountain West Championship.

The Broncos put a hurting on the Rebels when they met on October 18, cruising to a 56-31 victory.

That’s a big reason why, despite UNLV playing better football right now, finds itself as a road underdog for this one in the college football odds.

What both teams don’t really struggle to do, however, is score, which is why my UNLV vs Boise State prediction targets the total.

Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 8pm ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID, with FOX carrying the broadcast.

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction

There isn’t a better time than now for UNLV to exact revenge from the beating they took earlier in the year.

The Running Rebels are playing their best ball of the season, ripping off four straight wins to close out the season. They’re the highest scoring team in Mountain West, putting up better than 37 points per game.

How dominant was the offense? Consider that second-ranked Utah State at 31.8 points per game was closer to seventh-ranked Fresno State than they were to the Rebels.

They have the conference’s most prolific QB, as Anthony Colandrea leads the MWC in both passing yards (3,050) and 22 touchdown tosses.

It’s been a rockier road down the home stretch for the Broncos, who finished 2-2 in their final four, scoring seven points in each of their losses to San Diego State and Colorado State.

They did bounce back to win their final two games, including a nail-biting 25-24 win over Utah State. That moved them to 6-2 in conference play.

With a 4-way tie atop the conference, they needed to go to composite computer rankings to select the matchup, with UNLV and Boise getting the game over New Mexico and San Diego State.

Offensively, the Broncos are second only to UNLV in the conference in total yards, putting up 430.4 per game, while third in scoring at 30.8 points per game. They were fifth in passing and third in rushing.

They were led by Dylan Riley, the second leading rusher in the conference, who finished the year with 1,016 yards on a healthy 6.2 yards per carry clip and 10 touchdowns.

Riley will be a central figure here as UNLV owns the second-worst run defense in the conference, allowing 175.5 yards per game.

In Boise’s win over UNLV, Riley ran wild, shredding the ‘Rebels for 201 yards on 15 carries and a score, part of a 294-yard rushing day for the Broncos, and three TD’s.

UNLV vs Boise State Odds

The interactive table above will automatically update as the college football odds move over the course of the day.

The early line started at 3.5 points, but since then, it lives in the 4.5 to 5.5 point range, and a little shopping can find you the point spread you need. Backing UNLV? FanDuel has them as +5.5 underdogs.

Bet365 has the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites, and BetMGM lists them as -200 on the moneyline. The best figure for UNLV is +180.

Two prolific offenses makes for a high total and there’s no exception here. Under bettors can go to Bet365 to find the line at 59.5 points. Anyone wanting to cash the Over can check FanDuel, where it’s a full point lower.

UNLV vs Boise State Best Bet

• Pick: Over 58.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)

My best bet for UNLV vs Boise State is Over 58.5 points.

There’s just too much offense on the field to be stopped. UNLV has a stud QB, and we didn’t even get into star running back Jai”Den Thomas, who had the conference’s highest run average of 7.43 yards a tote, ranked second with 12 TD’s and was third overall with 944 rush yards.

Boise QB Maddux Madsen played three less games than Colandrea, but was fifth in passing yards per game and fifth with 15 touchdown passes.

The Broncos have owned this head-to-head, going 9-0, but just 3-6-0 against the spread. The Over has cashed in five of the nine meetings.

UNLV vs Boise State: Key Offensive Stats

This is the third straight season these teams have met in the MWC championship, and the Broncos will look for a 3-peat, perhaps their perfect swan song as they move out of Mountain West and into the Pac-12 next season.

UNLV has just one loss on the road all season, and it happened to be at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, but their offense hasn’t faltered. In fact, the Runnin’ Rebels have averaged 37.5 points per game away from home.

Their lowest scoring output in a road game has been 31 points, which has happened twice on the season.

Boise State has one scoring dud on its home resume, that 30-7 loss to Fresno State on November 1. If you take that one away, the Broncos have averaged 48.8 points per game in their other five home wins, cracking the 40+ point plateau each time.

It’s set up for another shootout to claim the Mountain West crown.