Giro d’Italia Stage 14 Odds, Picks, and Best Bets

• Stage 14 of the Giro d’Italia (Saturday, May 22) features the most difficult finishing climb of this year’s race
• Top GC riders are likely to battle it out on Saturday though a breakaway is possible
• What betting value do Stage 14 odds provide?

Zoncolan is a beast. The lead-up to the monstrous Category 1 climb on Saturday is not overly daunting, but when the 205 kilometres route from Cittadella reaches Monte Zoncolan, good luck.

One would expect a day with a major climb would be a showdown of top GC riders. When Stage 14 begins (5:40 ET) who will take a run at the pink jersey? How will Egan Bernal counter? Or could top contenders let an unthreatening breakaway steal the day?

Though he doesn’t need to win the stage to be the ultimate winner, Bernal (+225) is heavy favorite on Saturday. Let’s look closely at the odds and discuss several betting options.

Stage 14 Giro d’Italia Odds

Odds as of May 21st.

There are moments that define every race. While Monte Zoncolan could end up being inconsequential, the top riders, the ones who have aspirations of winning the overall classification, often make their stand on the biggest mountains.

The first two-thirds of Saturday’s stage is rather unexciting. There is a Category 4 climb but nothing else of interest. Then things get going. A Category 2 challenge, a bumpy and long descent, followed by Zoncolan. The 14 kilometres conclusion begins at 8%, backs off to about 5%, and then the final 3km are at 13% with the gradient surpassing 25% over the final 500 metres. There is no hiding.

Friday profiled to be a classic bunch sprint and mostly that came to fruition. Edoardo Affini tried to steal the day by moving early, but Giacomo Nizzolo tracked him down and kicked by to win. At the age of 32 Nizzolo finally earned his first Grand Tour stage victory.

Friday’s sprint did not result in any major changes among the GC. Bernal leads Aleksandr Vlasov by 45 seconds. Damiano Caruso is in third place, 1:12 behind Bernal. Hugh Carthy is next, 1:17 behind the leader, with Simon Yates five seconds behind Carthy.

The Favorite

For a week or so now Bernal has looked the part of the overwhelming favorite. He had never won a Grand Tour stage until Sunday, and just looks in complete control. For a rider who has tended to be measured, there is a fight and spirit to the way he is riding this event that is encouraging.

The confidence Bernal is riding with leads you to believe if he is in the mix on Saturday his chances of winning are strong. That said, he in no way needs the victory. It might be one of those deals where if another GC contender pushes, Bernal will counter punch. If there are no attacks, he might be content to move along to Sunday maintaining his advantage.

Contenders

Simon Yates has history with Monte Zoncolan. He entered Stage 14 in 2018 with the lead, but Chris Froome attacked him in the final 4km and went by to earn daily honors. While Froome’s margin was only six seconds over Yates, it changed the race. Froome went on to victory, and Yates faded badly.

Yates is in great form right now. He won April’s Tour of the Alps, the event with the most challenging climbs of any race leading up to the Giro.

Hugh Carthy is sometimes known as “Huge.” The nickname comes from his ability to summon extra energy in the biggest and most difficult moments.

Carthy finished third last year in the Vuelta a España, and this year has been in the mix at the Classic Sud-Ardèche, Tour of the Alps, and Volta a Catalunya. He is going to make a move. Will it be today?

Vlasov is in a similar position to Carthy. At some point he has to make a move, and the biggest mountain is a place to make a statement. That said, there are plenty of stages still to go.

Vlasov finished second this year in Paris–Nice and was third in the Tour of the Alps. He has a very bright future. Will his moment come this early on the 2021 Giro?

Longshots

Two riders who are not going to take the pink jersey this year but could be dangerous on a day that is all about pure strength on the final climb are Bauke Mollema and Jai Hindley.

At the age of 34 Mollema has been on the podium at the Vuelta a España, and six times finished in the Top 10 at a Grand Tour.

Mollema is having a solid year, winning the Trofeo Laigueglia, and reaching the podium at the GP Industria & Artigianato di Larciano and Tour des Alpes-Maritimes et du Var.

Hindley finished second at Giro last year and won a major test in the mountains on Stage 18.

Last year Hindley was the best climber at the Giro. If it wasn’t for time trials he would have won. This is his opportunity on this year’s race, and the price is juicy.