Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks, Player Props & Best Odds (Game 1)

• The Milwaukee Brewers send ace Freddy Peralta to the mound against the Chicago Cubs (TBD) in Game 1 of the ALDS
• EArly money pushed the Brewers vs Cubs run total down a full run at some sportsbooks
• Below, see my favorite Cubs vs Brewers picks for Game 1 plus the main player props and updated CHC/MIL odds

The MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers (97-65, 52-29 home) begin postseason action by hosting the Chicago Cubs (92-70, 42-39 away) in Game 1 of an all-NL Central, best-of-five NLDS on Saturday (1:08 pm CT/2:08 pm ET at American Family Field).

The rested Brewers have the luxury of sending ace Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) to the mound while the Cubs are left scrambling after a hard-fought three-game Wild Card series with the Padres. The Cubs top-three starters (Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga) all saw significant action in the Wild Card.

Chicago manager Craig Counsell will likely have to use a mish-mash of relievers in the series opener. While the Cubs bullpen has been solid all season, oddsmakers believe Chicago is at a significant disadvantage in the Game 1 Cubs/Brewers odds.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks for Game 1

• Milwaukee Brewers moneyline (-152) at FanDuel
• Under 7.5 (-115) at ESPN Bet
• Peralta over 6.5 Ks (+100) at FanDuel

In a high-stakes playoff opener, the edge belongs to the team with the proven ace on the mound at home. Freddy Peralta is a difference-maker for the Brewers. His historical dominance over the heart of the Cubs’ order cannot be overstated (see his H2H stats against the Cubs); he effectively neutralizes key run producers like Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki.

While the Cubs enter with momentum from the Wild Card round, facing Peralta at a raucous American Family Field – where Milwaukee was an elite 52-29 in the regular season – is an entirely different challenge than facing the Padres at Wrigley Field.

Milwaukee star catcher William Contreras continues to battle a hand injury that kept him out of the Brewers’ last two regular-season games. He might be less than 100% but manager Pat Murphy was adamant he would start.

The Cubs have been a strong under bet recently, with the under hitting in their last six road games as an underdog and their last four games, overall. This aligns perfectly with the sharp line movement that has driven the total down from 8.0 to as low as 7.0 (though it’s still available at some books 7.5 if you hurry).

While the Brewers have struggled recently as favorites (1-5 in their last six), playoff baseball often resets those regular-season trends. Peralta’s ability to control the game and the immense pressure of the postseason environment both point toward a low-scoring game and a Milwaukee victory.

The best value lies in trusting the ace and the market signals.

Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Peralta vs TBD

With no Cubs starter name, it’s not possible to look at the statistical history on that side. There is more than enough to parse when it comes to Peralta and the Cubs, who have racked up 178 total at-bats against the longtime Brewer.

Chicago Cubs Career Statistics vs Freddy Peralta

Peralta has largely dominated the core of this Cubs lineup, holding key bats like Ian Happ (.063 in 32 at-bats) and Seiya Suzuki (.130 in 23 at-bats) to abysmal career averages.

The main outliers are Pete Crow-Armstrong (5-for-11 with a home run and a double) and Kyle Tucker (5-for-11 with a double).

Peralta has an elite 33.7% K-rate against the Cubs hitters. They did touch him up a bit in the regular season over four starts. Chicago tagged him for five runs on five hits (one homer) and two walks on July 30, and three runs on two hits (both homers) and two walks on July 19.

His other two starts against the Cubs this season were stellar: no runs on five hits over 12.0 IP with 13 strikeouts.

The Brewers went 3-1 against Chicago in Peralta’s four starts.

Brewers vs Cubs Player Props for Game 1

MLB player props as of October 3 at MGM. Over odds listed first, under odds listed second.

The over on Peralta’s strikeout prop (6.5 at even-money) is enticing. He has punched out Seiya Suzuki 12 times in 23 at-bats and Ian Happ 14 times in 32 at-bats. Given the Cubs’ swing-and-miss tendencies against him, he has a strong chance to exceed this number.

Among the hitters, William Contreras over 1.5 Total Bases at +115 offers value, especially if his hand injury is minor and he’s in the lineup. He is the Brewers’ most consistent offensive threat.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Odds (Game 1)

As of late Friday, the Milwaukee moneyline ranged from -152 to -158. The Cubs were as long as +130 to win. Removing the vig, the moneyline odds give Milwaukee a 57.4% implied win probability, with Chicago getting the remaining 42.6%. The run total still showed a half-run range (7.0 to 7.5) though it was trending down; it’s very possible that the total will be 7.0 across the board before first pitch.

Odds commentary as of 6:12 pm ET, October 3. The odds in the table, above, will updated automatically with the best available price if books move the lines.

MIL Brewers vs CHI Cubs Odds Movement

The most significant line movement has been on the total, which opened at 8.0 runs and has since dropped a full run to 7.0 at most sportsbooks. This sharp downward shift indicates that significant money came in on the under, which often means professional bettors moved the line.

Bookmaker SBD’s MLB public betting splits to see the money and bet percentages for every postseason game.