Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction, Pick & Spread for Big Noon Kickoff

• Wisconsin heads to Ann Arbor for a Big Ten clash on Big Noon Kickoff
• True freshman Bryce Underwood looks to build on an up-and-down start
• Check out my Wisconsin vs Michigan prediction below, as well as the updated spread

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Two Big Ten rivals play for the 71st time on Saturday. Wisconsin (2-2) and No.20 Michigan (3-1) look to bolster their conference resumes. Michigan plays host at noon on Saturday, October 4th, on the FOX Big Noon Kickoff broadcast.

I have laid out my Wisconsin vs Michigan prediction and picks, attaching the betting spread below.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction

Wisconsin jumped out to a 2-0 start, but they have struggled in recent weeks. After defeating Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee State, the Badgers lost by three scores to Alabama and Maryland. The Maryland loss was particularly shocking as Wisconsin was double-digit home favorites.

Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been spotty. The San Diego State transfer has thrown a pick in every game, but he is completing over 70% of his passes. He’s thrown for 160 yards per game, spreading targets to four primary options.

Wisconsin has four receivers between 30 yards per game and 45 yards per game. Tight end Lance Mason leads the team with 14 catches, 177 yards, and two touchdowns.

Came away really impressed with TE Lance Mason despite the #Badgers rough afternoon in Tuscaloosa.

Just a great feel for the game. Plenty of good reps in run blocking as well. pic.twitter.com/pXgyN2KrOw

— Seamus (@seamus_rohrer) September 16, 2025

Wisconsin’s rushing attack is not quite up to its usual standards, but Dilin Jones and Darrion Dupree have been adequate. They have an equal number of carries, with Jones rushing for 10 extra yards and a touchdown. The Badgers have had more rushing touchdowns from wide receivers than running backs this season.

Michigan has had a solid start to the season. Originally ranked in the top 15, they knocked off New Mexico before losing in Norman to Oklahoma. They have rebounded with a 60-point win over Central Michigan, and they held off Nebraska two weeks ago.

The schedule has opened up for the Wolverines as they do not have a currently ranked team on their docket until the final game of the regular season when they host Ohio State.

True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has not lit the world on fire yet, but he has been steady under center. He has five total touchdowns with only one interception. He was particularly dominant running the football against Central Michigan, rushing for 114 yards and two touchdowns on nine rushes.

"The fact that he is now kind of unleashed to run is a real threat for opposing defenses."

More from @joelklatt on what to expect from Bryce Underwood and Michigan as they prepare to take on Wisconsin. pic.twitter.com/hO705hrCuV

— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) October 3, 2025

Donaven McCulley has been the top passing option, leading the team with 13 catches and 197 yards. Three other receivers have surpassed 100 yards. In classic Michigan fashion, the strength of the team is the ground game.

Alabama transfer Justice Haynes leads the Big Ten 10 with 537 rushing yards. He has scored six times already. He has a 50-yard run in three different games, including 75-yard touchdown runs against Oklahoma and Nebraska. Reserve Jordan Marshall has pitched in with 189 yards of his own and three touchdowns.

Justice Haynes just showed off his big-play ability again 💥

The RB sprints 75 yards to put No. 21 @UMichFootball back on top.

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/hUfwBFVxp7

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 20, 2025

Watch for edge rusher Jaishawn Barham. He leads the Wolverines with three sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss. He could be a top-100 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, continuing the healthy pass rusher pipeline from Ann Arbor to the NFL.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Pick

• +17.5 (-110, Fanatics)

I expect Wisconsin to be competitive enough to keep it within a three-score game. Both teams will look to run the ball, but both run-defense units have a 91.0 PFF grade or better, so it could be a slog. Michigan likely wins, but I’ll take Wisconsin +17.5 for my Wisconsin vs Michigan pick.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Betting Odds

The sportsbooks have Michigan as home favorites with the total at 43.5 points. Over bettors can get over 43.5 for -110 odds at FanDuel. Under bettors can get under 43.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds.

Michigan bettors should take them -17 at Caesars (-110 odds) or -901 on the moneyline at BetMGM. Wisconsin bettors should take them +17.5 at Fanatics (-110 odds) or +700 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Odds as of Oct 3, 2025, at consensus sportsbooks. Check out our top college football betting apps for Wisconsin vs Michigan.

Wisconsin vs Michigan, Last Five Matchups

While Wisconsin has had some recent success over Michigan, winning five of the last eight matchups, Michigan has dominated the lifetime matchup, posting a 52-17-1 record in the first 70 games. Michigan once won 14 matchups in a row including a 56-0 demolition in 1977.

The last time Michigan played Wisconsin (2021), JJ McCarthy got his first collegiate rushing TD (and a 56 yard TD pass to Daylen Baldwin) pic.twitter.com/fdMXkw0Glo

— Swanky Wolverine (@swankywolverine) September 29, 2025

Michigan won the most recent matchup 38-17. Future Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara threw two touchdowns while current Minnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy threw one pass – a 56-yard touchdown. On the Wisconsin side, future fourth-round pick Chimere Dike scored a touchdown and led the team with 54 scrimmage yards.