Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Blake Snell and the Dodgers can take a 2-0 stranglehold on Jesús Luzardo and the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS tonight
- Snell has dominated the current Phillies lineup, holding them to a collective .138 batting average in 137 at-bats
- Below, see my favorite Dodgers vs Phillies picks and player props to bet, plus the LAD vs PHI Game 2 odds
After blowing a three-run lead in Saturday’s 5-3 loss, the Philadelphia Phillies (96-66, 55-26 home) have the arduous task of facing Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, 41-40 away) in Game 2 of their best-of-five NLDS on Monday, Oct. 6th (6:08 pm ET) at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies send Jesús Luzardo (15-7, 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) to the mound hoping to even the series. Luzardo will be tasked with containing a Dodgers offense that has been relentless in the postseason (23 runs in three games).
The Phillies were the best home team in baseball during the regular season, but the Dodgers are road favorites in Game 2 (-130 at FanDuel). Below, I have set out my favorite Dodgers vs Phillies picks for Game 2, followed by the historical pitcher-vs-hitter stats, the main player props and, lastly, the current odds for Game 2. Use the links below to navigate directly to each section.
PICKS || PITCHER-vs-HITTER STATS || PLAYER PROPS || CURRENT ODDS
PHI Phillies vs LA Angeles Dodgers Picks & Prediction
On Saturday, I backed the Phillies due to their phenomenal home record and meaningful home/road splits, which support their status as the best home team in baseball. On Monday, the road gets steeper against Blake Snell, a pitcher who’s historically had their number. But Snell has been somewhat hittable in his postseason career (3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 55.2 IP) and he was way better at home this season (1.17 ERA) than on the road (4.30 ERA).
He had a brilliant start against the Phillies on Sep. 17 (7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2H, 2BB, 12 Ks) but that came at home, and it means the Phillies just had a good look at his pitch mix.
Several situational trends point directly to the Phillies. They have been nearly unbeatable at home after a loss, posting an incredible 13-1 record in their last 14. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. These trends highlight the significant home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park and this team’s ability to bounce back.
The sharp money appears to be siding with Philadelphia in Monday’s MLB public betting splits; Philly is getting 54% of moneyline handle on just 42% of ML tickets.
When it comes to the total, the trends strongly favor a high-scoring game. The over has hit in the Dodgers’ last five playoff games and in eight of the Phillies’ last nine home games against winning teams. Even with Snell on the mound, the potent Phillies lineup can contribute, especially one LAD’s subpar bullpen gets in the game.
Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Snell vs Luzardo
Both pitchers have sizable histories against the opposing lineups. The Phillies hitters have faced Snell in 137 at-bats, while the Dodger hitters have 103 at-bats against Luzardo.
Los Angeles Dodgers Career Statistics vs Jesús Luzardo
Luzardo’s stats against the LAD hitters are good but not great. He’s limited them to a .223 average a .684 OPS over 103 at-bats. The problem areas have been Freddie Freeman (4-for-11, 1.273 OPS, one homer, one triple, one double) and Teoscar Hernandez (3-for-8, 1.000 OPS, two doubles).
Shohei Ohtani is only 2-for-14 against Luzardo, but both hits left the yard. He and Freeman are the only Dodger batters with homers off the Phillies starter.
Luzardo made two starts against LAD in the regular season, and they were at opposite ends of the spectrum. Back on April 4, he pitched 7.0 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks with eight Ks in a 3-2 win. But on Sep. 17, he was tagged for four runs on six hits and a walk over 7.0 innings with just six Ks in a 5-0 loss.
Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs Blake Snell
Snell has considerably better stats against the Phillies hitters, holding them to a miniscule .168 average and .569 OPS in 137 at-bats. Edmundo Sosa has been the best of the bunch against Snell (3-for-8, 1.000 OPS, one double).
Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos are a combined 4-for-44, though Harper does have a homer off the LAD starter.
The other Phillies player with home runs off of Snell are JT Realmuto (5-for-21, .781 OPS) and Kyle Schwarber (2-for-14, .651 OPS), who each have one. Alec Bohm is 3-for-13 with two doubles.
Snell’s only regular-season start against Philadelphia was his best of the season; he pitched 7.0 shutout innings, allowing two hits and two walks while fanning 12.
That start came at home, though, where Snell had infinitisemal a 1.17 ERA. That number ballooned to 4.30 on the road in the regular season.
PHI vs LAD Game 2 Player Props
MLB player props as of October 6 at BetMGM.
Blake Snell’s strikeout line is set at a high 7.5, a testament to his swing-and-miss stuff and the Phillies’ propensity to strike out. Given his historical success against this lineup (56 K in 132 AB, 40.9% K-rate), the over is enticing, despite the massive number he has to reach.
Luzardo’s strikeout prop is at just 5.5. His regular-season strikeout out percentage (28.5%) is almost exactly equal to his historical strikeout rate against the Dodger hitters (28.2%). His outs-recorded prop is at just 14.5. If he pitches five full innings (15 outs) and maintains that 28.5% K-rate, he’d only average 4.3 Ks.
LAD vs PHI Player-Prop Picks:
Phillies vs Dodgers Closing Odds (Game 2)
As of 4:39 pm ET, the best price on the Dodgers moneyline was down -116 at FanDuel, while the longest odds on a Philly win are now +100 at ESPN Bet. This morning, the Dodgers were -130 or shorter while the Phillies were as long as +114. The run total is on the rise slightly: the best odds on over 7.5 have shortened from -114 to -118.
Extracting the juice, the current moneyline prices give the Dodgers a 53.3% implied win probability, leaving 46.7% for the Phillies.
LAD’s Game 1 victory made them the outright favorites in the World Series odds at +210, well ahead of second-favorite Toronto (+425). The Phillies have faded to +900 longshots, and are priced at +260 to comeback to win this series alone.
Odds commentary as of 4:47 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the MLB lines move before first pitch.
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The sports and sports betting data in this article was gathered with the assistance of AI that is connected to Sportradar’s database.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
