Mets vs Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (May 17)

• The New York Yankees are -135 moneyline favorites over the New York Mets on Saturday
• Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Mets, while the Yankees counter with Clark Schmidt (1-1, 4.73 ERA)
• Keep reading for the Mets vs Yankees odds, picks, predictions and starting pitchers for Game 2 of the Subway Series

Round 2 of the Subway Series goes down Saturday, after the Yankees (26-18, 14-8 home) took down the Mets (28-17, 11-12 away) in the opener on Friday in the Bronx. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Bronx Bombers for the second straight game in the MLB odds, with first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm ET from Yankee Stadium.

Mets vs Yankees Odds

The Yankees opened up as -135 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 runs at +142 odds on the run line. Their cross-town rival comes back as a +114 underdog, while the total sits at 9.5, with the juice shaded slightly to the under.

Odds as of May 16th at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB today. 

NY Mets vs NY Yankees Starting Pitchers

The Yankees and Mets enter play ranked second and third respectively in the World Series odds. Aaron Boone will hand the ball to Clarke Schmidt, who’s had trouble keeping the ball in the yard this season. Schmidt coughed up 2 homers to the Mariners in his last start, and has now surrendered 5 home runs over a 97 at-bat sample size.

That spells trouble against the Mets, who hit Schmidt extremely hard in their previous two matchups against him. They tagged Schmidt for 10 hits and 5 runs over 7 innings or work. Current Mets batters are slashing .353/.450/.588 versus the righty, with a minuscule strikeout rate.

The Mets bats were cold on Friday night, but this is a team with plenty of pop. Former Yankee Juan Soto, along with Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor have all homered at least 8 times, while Soto, Alonso and Lindor all carry an OPS north of .850. Soto and Co. are top-six in MLB in slugging and OPS, and top-10 in runs per game and batting average. Soto was greeted with boos in his return to Yankee Stadium, but didn’t get much to hit drawing three walks on Friday.

Griffin Canning vs Clarke Schmidt Stats

Griffin Canning will take the ball for the Mets against baseball’s most potent lineup. The Yankees roughed up the Mets pitching on Friday, chasing starter Tylor Megill after only 2.2 innings. The heart of the lineup did most of the damage with AL MVP odds favorite Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger accounting for seven hits and five runs. The Bronx Bombers lead the AL in scoring, home runs, hits, slugging and OPS, while Judge is atop nearly every individual statistical category.

Canning meanwhile, is a candidate for serious regression. His 5-1 record looks good on paper, but a deep dive into his numbers suggest he’s a flawed pitcher. For starters, he’s allowing hard contact at a 48.7% clip. That’s problematic versus a team as powerful as the Yankees, and especially true in a hitter friendly park like Yankee Stadium.

Also worrisome, is Canning’s BAPIP. He’s allowed a batting average on balls in play of just .295, which screams regression based on how hard opponents are making contact against him. He’s also stranding 88% of the runners he lets on. That’s simply not sustainable, especially against the Yankees who are slashing .285/.373/.514 against average speed pitchers like Canning.

Mets vs Yankees Picks and Predictions

• Over 9.5 (-108 at Bet365)

With both lineups in a strong position to succeed on Saturday, I’m betting over 9.5 runs. The Bronx Bombers did their part to push Game 1 past the total scoring 6 runs, but the Mets weren’t up to the challenge. I don’t anticipate them struggling in back-to-back contests given that Schmidt will be their primary opposition.

The Yankees have crossed the plate at least six times in six of their last nine games, with three double-digit run outbursts. Their slashing .291/.373/.565 over the last week, and are about to set Canning’s inevitable regression in motion.