Mavericks vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Player Props to Target (Nov 3)

• The Rockets are 12.5-point home favorites over the Mavericks on Monday
• Houston leads the NBA in Offensive Rating, and ranks third in Net Rating
• See my Mavericks vs Rockets picks and predictions, plus which player props to target

There’s no shortage of sports to sweat for Texas natives on Monday. Not only are the Dallas Cowboys front and center on Monday Night Football, but the Dallas Mavericks (2-4, 0-0 away) are also in action against the Houston Rockets (3-2, 1-1 home). Online sportsbooks are expecting a blowout per the latest NBA odds, pegging Houston as 12.5-point favorites.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8pm ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX, with Space City Home Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Mavericks vs Rockets picks and predictions, plus my favorite player props to target.

Mavericks vs Rockets Picks and Predictions

• Houston Rockets -12.5

The Rockets enter play winners of three in a row, with each victory coming by 18+ points. They’re averaging 134.6 points per game during that stretch, getting significant contributions from every position on the floor.

Last time out, they cruised past the Celtics, getting 26 points from Kevin Durant, a double-double from Alperen Sengun, and a near triple-double from Amen Thompson. Houston leads the NBA in Offensive Rating through five games, and ranks third in Net Rating behind only the 5-1 Spurs and undefeated Thunder, who are also the favorites to repeat in the NBA Championship odds.

Houston Rockets Stats

The Rockets haven’t missed a beat without starting point guard Fred Van Vleet, in large part thanks to the key addition of Durant. KD leads the team in scoring, and is shooting 55% from the floor and 40% from three.

Houston has elite size and athleticism up and down their roster, which makes them a nightmare to play against. They lead the NBA in offensive rebounding, and rank second in rebounding percentage. Defensively, the team grades out 12th, but would rate much higher if the stats didn’t account for garbage time.

The Rockets length is going to be especially problematic for Dallas, given their injury situation. The Mavericks are missing Anthony Davis and Derek Lively II, their starting power forward and center.

That’s going to put more pressure on Cooper Flagg’s shoulders, the preseason NBA rookie of the year odds favorite. Flagg, much like the rest of the Dallas roster, is off to an uninspiring start. He’s been wildly inconsistent as a shooter, more on that later, and has struggled to handle the point guard duties Jason Kidd has thrust upon him.

The Mavericks have won only two of their first six starts, ranking dead last in offensive rating. You can’t stay close to the Rockets if you struggle to score, and their offensive woes combined with Houston’s scoring efficiency has me taking KD and company -12.5 as my Mavericks vs Rockets pick.

Mavericks vs Rockets Player Props to Target

• Cooper Flagg under 15.5 points

Back to Flagg now, who I’m betting to finish under 15.5 points as my favorite Mavericks vs Rockets player prop bet to target. Fun fact, Former Mavs star Luka Doncic is averaging more points per game than Flagg, AD and Klay Thompson combined.

The rookie season growing pains have been real for Flagg, who’s shooting just 37% from the field. He’s averaging only 13.8 points per game, despite being perfect on the season from the free throw line.

Life won’t get any easier tonight, as Houston ranks eighth in defensive field goal percentage. Offensive rebounds and put-backs are few and far between versus the Rockets, as are fast break points and freebies from the charity stripe. Houston allows the fourth fewest fast break buckets, and the least amount of free throw attempts.

Flagg has scored 16 or fewer points in three straight games, and has made only 10 of his last 34 field goal attempts. Until they take point guard duties away and allow him to focus more on his scoring, he’s an easy fade in the NBA player props market.