Minnesota Twins vs LA Dodgers Player Props, Picks & Odds (Festa vs Ohtani)

• Shohei Ohtani makes his sixth start for the LA Dodgers on Monday against David Fest and the Minnesota Twins
• A battered Dodgers bullpen and a struggling, inexperienced starter on the other side have me leaning towards the over
• Below, I have set out the Twins/Dodgers player props and odds, along with my best picks for tonight’s game at Chavez Ravine

With superstar Shohei Ohtani making just his sixth start of the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers (58-42, 33-20 home, 52-43-3 O/U) look to halt a recent slide as they host David Festa and the Minnesota Twins (48-51, 20-31 away, 41-53-5 O/U) at Dodger Stadium on Monday night (7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET).

Ohtani’s start is the main attraction, but his limited workload this season suggests this game could quickly become a battle of the bullpens, a potential area of concern for the home team. In the first section below, I have set out the Twins/Dodgers player props and odds, plus my prop picks for Monday’s game. In the second section, find the Twins/Dodgers game odds and the betting lines I’m targeting.

Jump to: MIN vs LAD Props | MIN vs LAD Odds | MIN vs LAD Prediction

Dodgers vs Twins Player Props & Picks

MLB player props as of July 21st at DraftKings.

The pitcher props reveal a clear narrative. Shohei Ohtani’s strikeout line of 3.5 confirms that oddsmakers believe he’ll be on a strict pitch count. In his first five starts this season, he hasn’t exceeded 36 pitches. His most-recent outing was his longest, pitching 3.0 shutout innings against the Giants, allowing just one hit and one walk with four strikeouts.

After giving up one run in one inning in his first start of the season, Ohtani hasn’t conceded a run since (eight scoreless innings in total).

For David Festa, the over on his earned-runs prop of 2.5 (-120) is tempting. He’s a young starter with a high ERA facing an elite offense, making it probable he concedes at least three runs before his night is over.

I’m also going to target over 0.5 RBI for Ohtani at the plate. After an ugly stretch of five RBI-less games, Ohtani was the lone bright spot in the Brewers series, recording five RBI in the final two games, including two home runs. He is absolutely mashing right-handed pitching this season: 27 home runs, 1.031 OPS, .641 SLG%.

Picks:

• Festa over 2.5 earned runs (-120)
• Ohtani under 3.5 strikeouts (-105)
• Ohtani over 0.5 RBI (-115)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Odds

The Dodgers are listed as -174 home favorites in Monday’s MLB odds, but the pricing reflects some uncertainty. The moneyline implies a significant edge for Los Angeles, but it’s not as steep as one might expect for a team with their record playing at home. Extracting the juice, the moneyline odds give Los Angeles a 60.6% implied win probability, with Minnesota getting the remaining 39.4%.

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While the Dodgers boast one of the league’s most formidable lineups, they’ve hit a rough patch and are dealing with a significant injury to first baseman Freddie Freeman, whose status is day-to-day. The Twins, hovering around the .500 mark, arrive in Los Angeles following a decisive 7-1 victory over the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies and aim to capitalize on the Dodgers’ recent vulnerability.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

This matchup pits a struggling favorite against a live underdog. While the Dodgers possess more top-end talent, their recent skid and catastrophic injury situation make them incredibly vulnerable. Ohtani’s start is more of a cameo than a star turn, meaning the game will be decided by a Dodgers bullpen that’s missing multiple key arms and has been unreliable lately. David Festa is a clear downgrade for the Twins, but he only needs to be serviceable against a potentially Freeman-less lineup to give his team a chance.

The betting trends paint a grim picture for Los Angeles. The Dodgers are an ugly 2-8 as a favorite over their last ten games and have lost their last four games at home following a loss. There are plenty of reasons to fade the Twins; they’ve struggled on the road against winning teams, going just 2-9 in their last 11 games. However, the most telling indicator is the drastic line movement against the Dodgers, suggesting sharp bettors are fading them heavily.

With LA’s bullpen in shambles and Festa facing a slumping offense, the over also holds significant appeal, especially with a strong trend of hitting in 32 of the Dodgers’ 53 home games (60.4%) this season. Given the circumstances, the value lies with the underdog.

Picks:

• Minnesota Twins moneyline (+145) at bet365
• Over 9.0 runs (+100) at Caesars

MIN vs LAD Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Minnesota Twins Batters vs Shohei Ohtani

Los Angeles Dodgers Batters vs David Festa

There is no career matchup history between the Los Angeles Dodgers hitters and second-year pitcher David Festa.

Festa comes in with a 5.25 ERA and faces one of the most daunting tasks in baseball: navigating the Dodgers’ lineup at their home park. Even without Freddie Freeman, a batting order featuring Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez presents a monumental challenge. Festa has been susceptible to the long ball, and his ability to limit hard contact will be tested from the first inning. His prop for earned runs is set at 2.5, a line that looks to be in serious jeopardy against this offense.

Twins vs Dodgers Public Betting Splits

The public is overwhelmingly backing the home team in Monday’s MLB public betting splits, potentially creating value on the opposite side.

• Moneyline: 88.6% of bets and 93.8% of the money are on the Los Angeles Dodgers to win straight-up.
• Runline: 91.4% of bets are on the Dodgers to cover the -1.5 spread.
• Total Runs: 91.2% of bets are on over 9 runs.

While the public money is flowing toward the Dodgers, the significant line movement in the opposite direction suggests that sharp, respected bettors have taken a strong position on the Twins, creating a classic “Pros-vs-Joes” scenario.