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A.I. NFL Picks for Every Week 3 Game – ATS & O/U Predictions from Sportradar’s A.I. Model
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- I have generated NFL Week 3 picks from Sportradar’s A.I. model
- The model is struggling is a woeful 24-36 overall in its ATS and O/U picks to date (so feel free to fade)
- Below, see our A.I. NFL picks (ATS and total) for all 16 games on the Week 3 schedule
After just about treading water in Week 1, the Week 2 slate was an unmitigated disaster for our A.I. picks. Our model is a 6-8 against the spread and 4-10 O/U heading into tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Encouragingly, it went 9-5 (+2.78 units) on its first 14 player-prop picks. Will an additional week of data improve its ATS and O/U performance? Time will tell.
Below, I have set out the A.I.’s NFL picks for Week 3, including its ATS and O/U pick for all 16 games based on the opening NFL Week 3 odds. Note that the picks for the Buccaneers, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders Week 3 games were generated before they played their Week 2 games.
A.I. NFL Picks for Week 3
A.I. ATS picks record: 24-36
A.I. O/U picks record: 24-36
A.I. player-prop picks record: 9-5
Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines and prices for every game of the regular season and playoffs.
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A.I. Week 3 NFL Picks Include Five Overs
The A.I. picks for Week 1 were heavily skewed towards unders (12 unders vs four overs), and the Week 2 picks even more so (14 overs vs two unders). The Week 3 O/U picks are slightly more balanced, with 11 overs and five unders.
However, the model is an abysmal 1-5 on its six over bets to date. The only over bet it’s gotten right so far was over 47.5 in Bears vs Lions, which Detroit eclipsed by itself in a 52-21 rout.
A.I. Week 3 NFL Picks Are Heavy on Favorites
In both Weeks 1 and 2, the A.I. went with nine favorites and seven underdogs. The Week 3 picks are much more slanted towards the chalk, targeting 11 favorites and just five underdogs.
The model has had a lot more success picking chalk so far, going 9-9 ATS in the 18 games where it’s picked the favorite, and an abhorrent 3-9 when picking the underdog to cover the spread.
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Sascha Paruk
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
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