Tigers vs Pirates Odds, Predictions & Player Prop Picks (July 21)

• Pirates phenom Paul Skenes faces Tigers veteran Jack Flaherty on Monday night in Pittsburgh
• Despite a significant disparity in win/loss records, the Pirates are slight home favorites, a testament to the market’s respect for Skenes
• Below, see the Tigers vs Pirates odds, plus my predictions and player-prop picks for DET vs PIT tonight

The Detroit Tigers (60-40, 28-22 away, 50-45-5 O/U) travel to the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-61, 26-24 home, 39-57-4 O/U) on Monday, July 21st. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, with sensational sophomore Paul Skenes set to take the mound for the home team against veteran Jack Flaherty for the visitors.

Though the Pirates are on a dismal slide and sit second-last in the NL, they are slight home favorites against the AL-leading Tigers with their ace on the mound.

Jump to: DET vs PIT Odds | Batter-vs-Pitcher Stats | DET vs PIT Player Props | DET vs PIT Prediction

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

The Tigers/Pirates odds set Pittsburgh as a -125 favorite on the moneyline, with Detroit listed at +105. Taking out the juice, the moneyline gives Pittsburgh a 53.2% implied win probability and Detroit 46.8%. On the runline, the Tigers are a short -214 to keep the score within a run, while the Pirates are +176 to win by multiple runs. The total is set at a low 7.0 runs, acknowledging the potential for a pitchers’ duel between Skenes and Flaherty, who has the luxury of facing a struggling Pittsburgh lineup.

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DET vs PIT Odds Movement

The betting market has shown notable movement on the total for this game. While the moneyline and runline have remained relatively stable since opening, the total has seen significant action. The line opened at 7.0 runs with the over priced at +100 and the under at -120. It has since shifted dramatically to over 7.0 (-118), indicating that a substantial majority of money – 86.8% of bets and 78.8% of the handle – has come in on the over.

This heavy public lean on the over is likely influenced by two factors: the Tigers’ surprisingly potent offense, which averages nearly two more runs per game than the Pirates, and a strong historical trend where the over has hit in the last five meetings between these two teams. This movement creates a potential value opportunity on the under.

Detroit Tigers Statistics vs Paul Skenes

Skenes has absolutely mowed down the current Tigers roster in their limited meetings, striking out 14 of the 34 batters he has faced. Hitters are batting a collective .156 against him, with Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry going a combined 0-for-10 with six strikeouts.

Matt Vierling did manage to take Skenes yard in the only meeting between Skenes and the Tigers last season, which ended in a 10-2 Pittsburgh victory. Skenes lasted 6.0 innings, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk with nine strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates Statistics vs Jack Flaherty

The Pirates roster has a significantly better history against Flaherty, combining for a .304 average and .957 OPS in a not-insignificant sample size o 79 at-bats. Five different Pittsburgh hitters have taken the veteran Flaherty deep before: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, and Tommy Pham.

The Tigers won Flaherty’s most-recent start against the Pirates, but Flaherty was far from perfect in a 9-5 victory. He allowed four runs on nine hits and walk over 5.2 innings, but did manage to fan ten hitters. The 29-year-old righty hasn’t recorded double-digit strikeouts in a single game since.

PIT vs DET Player Props

MLB player props are a consensus aggregate as of 10:45 am ET.

Looking at the prop market, Paul Skenes’ strikeout line of 6.5 is particularly intriguing given his strikeout rate against this Detroit lineup (46.88% in 32 at-bats). The over holds significant appeal at -112. For Jack Flaherty, the under on his 6.5 strikeouts (-140) is worth a look. While the Pirates offense is weak, they don’t strike out at an exceptionally high rate, and Flaherty’s K/9 rate is solid but not elite.

The under on many Pirates’ offensive props, such as Bryan Reynolds’ total bases under 1.5 (-169), is a strong play against Flaherty.

Player prop picks:

• Paul Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts (-112)
• Jack Flaherty under 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
• Bryan Reynolds total bases under 1.5 (-169)

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Prediction

The central dynamic of this game is whether one brilliant pitcher can carry a slumping team against a superior opponent. While Paul Skenes (2.01 ERA) is a generational talent capable of shutting down any lineup, the Pirates have provided him with abysmal run support and are in a freefall, going 1-9 in their last ten games. Pittsburgh has been a terrible bet as the chalk, losing their last four games as a betting favorite.

The Tigers have been solid on the road (28-22) and possess an offense that scores nearly two full runs more per game than Pittsburgh. Even against an ace, getting the significantly better team at plus-money is good value.

As mentioned above, the public has hammered the over, moving the price from +100 to -118. However, the underlying matchup screams under. Skenes is on the mound, Flaherty faces a Pirates offense with a team OPS of just .639, and PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly venue. A key trend supports this contrarian play: the under has cashed in each of the Pirates’ last six games against opponents with a winning record.

I am going to fade the public and ride the stronger situational trend. Skenes should dominate, and the Pirates’ bats should stay quiet, leading to a low-scoring affair that the deeper, more complete Tigers team can win late.

Picks:

• Detroit Tigers moneyline (+105)
• Under 7.0 runs (-102)