Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks, Player Props & Betting Lines

• Winners of a franchise-record 11 straight home games, the Blue Jays host the Yankees again on Tuesday night
• Veteran Max Scherzer gets the ball for Toronto, while the Yankees counter with rookie Cam Schlittler in a pivotal divisional matchup
• Below, see my favorite Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and player props to target, plus the NYY/TOR odds and betting lines

The New York Yankees (55-45, 25-26 away, 43-53-4 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (59-41, 36-16, home, 49-45-6 O/U) meet in the second game of a three-game set at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Tuesday night (7:07 pm ET). In terms of experience, the pitching matchup could scarcely be more one-sided as Toronto sends future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer to the mound against New York rookie Cam Schlittler, who has all of 5.1 innings of big-league experience.

It’s been eight years since Scherzer won his third and most-recent Cy Young award, and three-plus seasons since he posted numbers worthy of a staff ace, but the 40-year-old has shown glimpses of his younger self since returning from injury in late June, and oddsmakers still believe he gives Toronto an edge over the rookie Schlittler.

In the first section below, I have set out the best moneyline, runline, and run total odds for tonight’s game, followed by pitcher-vs-hitter stats, the main player props, and lastly my picks for the game.

Jump to: Odds | Hitter-vs-Pitcher Stats| Player Props | Picks

Yankees vs Blue Jays Betting Lines

All sportsbooks list the Blue Jays as slight home favorites on Tuesday, ranging from -120 -128, with bet365 currently offering the longest price. The best moneyline on a New York victory is +!05 at either BetMGM or Caesars.The run total is 9.0 across the board, with Caesars offering the bets odds on the under (even money) and FanDuel offering the best odds on the over (-110).

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The Blue Jays’ -130 moneyline price implies a 56.5% chance of winning, but after removing the vig, their true probability sits closer to 54.3%. The Yankees, as +110 underdogs, have a vig-free implied probability of 45.7%.

New York is looking to bounce back from a 4-1 loss in the series opener, a game marred by costly defensive miscues that gifted the Blue Jays crucial runs.

TOR vs NYY Odds Movement

The betting market has fluctuated over the last several hours. Toronto opened as a slight -120 favorite, was bet up to -130, and is now trending back down. Correspondingly, the Yankees have drifted from +100 to +110 and back to +105.

The total has also seen a notable adjustment, dropping from an opening line of 9.5 to the current 9.0, suggesting some professional money may be anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the public, who are heavily betting the over in Tuesday’s MLB public betting splits.

Those betting splits confirm that while the majority of individual bets are on the Yankees to win, a much larger percentage of the total money wagered is on the Blue Jays’ moneyline, a classic indicator that sharp money is backing Toronto. The drop in the total, despite heavy public action on the over, is another sign of sharp influence.

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Max Scherzer

The Yankees don’t have great all-time numbers against Scherzer but, then again, hardly anyone does. One player in particular to watch is Giancarlo Stanton, who has clubbed four home runs with nine RBI against Scherzer in just 27 at-bats. Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr, and Trent Grisham each have one homer off the 40-year-old righty.

Schlittler’s only previous MLB appearance came on July 9, when the 24-year-old lasted 5.1 innings against Seattle, allowing three earned runs on four hits and two walks (including two home runs). The 6’6 righty fanned seven while averaging 98.0 mph on his four-seam fastball, touching 100 at points.

Both home runs by the Mariners came from left-handed hitters, JP Crawford and Jorge Polanco (who’s technically a switch-hitter but was batting from the left side of the plate against the righty Schlittler). Schlittler finished the game allowing an ugly .455 wOBA to lefties in 14 batters faced, while limiting the seven righties he faced to just a .180 wOBA.

The key lefty bat in the Toronto lineup is Addison Barger, who’s second on the team with 14 home runs and a .843 OPS during a breakout sophomore season.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Player Props

MLB player props represent the sportsbook consensus on July 22.

There’s interesting value in the pitcher props. Scherzer’s strikeout line is set at 5.5. While the Yankees have power, they also strike out frequently, making the over an intriguing play. His earned-runs line at 1.5 is low given his 4.70 ERA, but the over is heavily juiced at -182.

For Schlittler, the under on his 3.5 strikeouts at +105 is appealing. The Blue Jays have a contact-oriented lineup that doesn’t rack up high strikeout totals. His outs-recorded prop at 14.5 (a.k.a. under 5.0 innings) with heavy juice on the over seems ambitious for a rookie pitcher against a red-hot Toronto offense.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction

The pitching matchup is the central story of this game and, at least on paper, it leans heavily in Toronto’s favor. While Max Scherzer’s 4.70 ERA isn’t what we’ve come to expect from the future Hall-of-Famer, he remains a formidable competitor with veteran savvy. He faces a Yankees offense that, while powerful, has been inconsistent and prone to strikeouts.

On the other side, Schlittler and his 5.06 ERA are being thrown into the fire against a Blue Jays team that is not only winning but doing so with authority at home. During their current home win streak, seven of 11 victories have come by at least two runs. Toronto’s offense excels at manufacturing runs through contact and aggressive baserunning, a perfect formula to exploit a young pitcher and a shaky defense.

The situational trends overwhelmingly support the Blue Jays. Toronto is an incredible 36-16 (.692) at home this season and has won its last five games against the Yankees. Conversely, the Yankees have been dreadful as road underdogs, posting a 2-9 record in their last 11 such games. They are also just 1-7 in their last eight road games against opponents with a winning record. The sharp money agrees, pushing the line in Toronto’s favor despite the public’s affinity for the Yankees brand.

Given the pitching disparity, Toronto’s historic home performance, and the Yankees’ recent struggles on the road and on defense, the Blue Jays are the clear pick. I will take them on the moneyline, while also targeting the over on 9.0 runs and the under on Schlittler’s total outs (14.5) which, as mentioned, is priced at +130.

Picks:

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-120) at bet365
• Over 9.0 runs (-110) at FanDuel
• Schlittler under 14.5 outs (+130) at BetMGM

NYY vs TOR Public Betting Splits

The betting splits reveal a fascinating divide. The public is backing the Yankees with a majority of the bet slips, but the big-money “sharp” bettors are overwhelmingly siding with the Blue Jays. This public-vs-sharps split is a strong indicator of professional confidence in the home team.

While the public is also on the Blue Jays runline, the money is more evenly distributed, suggesting some professional interest in the Yankees keeping it close. On the total, both the public and sharps are aligned, heavily favoring the over.