Milwaukee Just 2-4 ATS as Road Favorite; Laying 5-Points at Indiana in Central Division Clash

• The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers clash Saturday night (Nov. 16, 7pm ET)
• The Bucks are 5-point road favorites against a Pacers team that had its four-game winning streak snapped Friday night
• Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS as a road favorite, while Indiana is 4-2 ATS at home this season

The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers clash Saturday night (Nov. 16, 7pm ET) in a battle of the top two teams in the Central division. The Bucks enter this game fresh off back-to-back victories, while the Pacers had their four-game winning streak snapped Friday night in Houston.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Odds

All odds taken Nov. 15

Milwaukee opened as 5-point favorites in the Bucks vs Pacers odds, and that’s where the line currently sits. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company have struggled to cover spreads on the road, posting a 2-4 ATS mark away from home, while Indiana is 4-2 ATS at home this season.

This will be Malcolm Brogdon’s first game against his former team since being traded to the Pacers in the offseason if he’s able to suit up. Brogdon left Friday’s game in Houston with a sore back and his status for this game is currently unknown. He leads his new team in points (20.7) and assists (8.5), but his stats look flaccid when stacked up against his former MVP teammate.

It’s Giannis’ World

Antetokounmpo has picked up right where he left off last season. He leads the NBA in PER and ranks second in points (30.5) and rebounds (14.5) per game. Two nights ago he racked up 38 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals versus the Bulls, giving him six straight games with 30+ points.

Another dominant game from Giannis:

38 PTS | 16 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL | 54% FG pic.twitter.com/dim4Opvpvj

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) November 15, 2019

He has 10 double-doubles and a triple-double in 11 games this season, and now that Khris Middleton is out with a knee injury, even more of the offensive load will rest on Giannis’ shoulders.

Long Distance Power Outage

Without Middleton, Milwaukee’s 3-point shooting will take a major hit and that was evident against Chicago. The Bucks were 6-for-33 from long distance last game, and were outscored 54-18 from beyond the arc by the Bulls. For the season, they’re making just 33.8% of their 3-point attempts and against most teams that would be a significant disadvantage.

The thing about the Bucks is when they can’t make a jumper they have a large Greek man who’s just about unstoppable going to the rim. Tie game despite Bulls’ 27-point advantage from 3.

— Jason Patt (@Bulls_Jay) November 15, 2019

Fortunately for Milwaukee, Indiana is allergic to 3’s and rank last in 3-point field goals attempted and made this season. No team relies more on 2-point field goals than the Pacers, as they make up 70% of the team’s offensive production. This plays right into the hands of a Bucks defense that allows a league low 48% field goal percentage on 2-point attempts and an NBA best 38 points in the paint per game.

If Indiana insists on pounding the ball inside and settling for mid-range jumpers, Milwaukee will run them right out of their own gym.

Don’t Buy the Pacers Inflated Record

The Pacers are 7-2 in their last nine games, but if we dig a little deeper we’ll discover they have zero wins against legitimate playoff contenders all season. Their seven victories have come against teams with a combined record of 26-51, and they hadn’t faced a single opponent with a record above .500 prior to their matchup with the Rockets. They’ve had the easiest schedule in the NBA this season, while the Bucks’ resume already includes wins over the Clippers, Rockets and Raptors.

Rev Up your day with The Greek Freak’s ferocious jam!! @harleydavidson | #FearTheDeer pic.twitter.com/6eEWglFU6s

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) November 15, 2019

Milwaukee leads the East in points per game and point differential and should be able to take advantage of a tired Pacers team that will be playing their second game in as many nights. The Bucks don’t have to be worried about being dominated from beyond the arc and their defensive scheme is perfectly suited to neutralize everything Indiana wants to do on offense. Lay the points with Milwaukee.