Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Odds, Lines, and Picks NFL Week 12
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Washington is a 4-point favorite in the Falcons vs Commanders odds for Sunday’s Week 12 matchup
- The Commanders are 4-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over under center
- The latest Falcons vs Commanders odds are listed below, along with injury news and best bets
If you haven’t been paying attention to the Commanders lately, you might not realize they’ve won five of their past six games. Read on for a Falcons vs Commanders preview.
Four of those wins have come with Taylor Heinicke at the helm, and Washington (6-5, 2-3 home) will look to continue their strong play when they host Atlanta (5-6, 1-4 away) on Sunday.
Online sportsbooks like their chances in the Week 12 NFL odds, pegging Heinicke and Co. as healthy favorites.
Falcons vs Commanders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | +4 (-110) | +160 | O 40.5 (-115) |
| Washington Commanders | -4 (-110) | -190 | U 40.5 (-105) |
Odds as of November 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbooks bonus code.
The Commanders are currently 4-point favorites, after opening at -3. As of Friday afternoon, 61% of the spread wagers are on Washington, as is 59% of the ATS money.
Total-wise, the contest sits at 40.5 after opening 1 point higher. 75% of the over/under tickets are currently on the over, which suggests this line could creep up before kickoff.
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Action gets underway at 1 pm ET at FedEx Field in Landover, MD with 53-degree game-time temperatures, rain, and 13 mph winds in the forecast.
Washington Commanders Betting Analysis
Both teams enter play just outside an NFC Wild Card berth ranking eighth and ninth respectively. Washington and Atlanta are on pace to exceed their 2022 NFL win totals, with the Commanders needing only two more victories.
After shocking the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 10, Washington avoided a letdown last week against Houston. They outgained the Texans by 196 yards, limiting them to 148 yards total, and 2.7 yards per play.
The Commanders rank 12th in defense per DVOA, and most importantly check in with the second-best run defense – more on that later. Reinforcements are also on the way for the Washington D, as it looks like former number two pick and stud pass rusher Chase Young is set to return.
The Commanders run defense against some top RBs over the past few weeks:
•Aaron Jones: 8 carries 23 yards (2.9 YPR)
•Dalvin Cook: 17 carries 47 yards (2.8 YPR)
•Jalen Hurts: 6 carries 28 yards
•Dameon Pierce: 10 carries 8 yards (0.8 YPR)— 𝘀𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗵𝗮𝗻 🪖 (@DotsByDaniels) November 20, 2022
Offensively, the Commanders have been riding a hot running game, but no matter which way they choose to attack Atlanta they should find success. The Falcons boast Football Outsiders 28th ranked defense, with only four teams grading out worst against the pass.
Heinicke hasn’t been forced to throw much, averaging 27.5 attempts and 183.5 yards over his last three contests. By contrast, Washington’s averaging 147 yards on the ground, with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson leading the way.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis
When it comes to the Falcons, all they seemingly want to do is run the ball. No team passes less than them, which is great when they’re ahead. They rank third in rushing yards per game and sixth in yards per attempt.
When they’re playing from behind though, it’s a nightmare. Atlanta is 1-6 in games where Marcus Mariota attempts more than 20 passes.
Catchable Passes Thrown Per Start [2022]
1. Joe Flacco (42.7)
2. Tom Brady (36.7)
3. Justin Herbert (35.8)
4. Kyler Murray (35.2)
5. Matt Ryan (34.7)
6. Patrick Mahomes (34.6)
…
32. Zach Wilson (21.7)
33. Marcus Mariota (18.4)@FantasyPtsData— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 22, 2022
Atlanta’s receiving corps has taken a hit lately and will be without the services of prized tight end Kyle Pitts. Mariota has been much more effective as a rusher, piling up 372 yards on the ground, and four rushing TD.
Those numbers rank third and second on the team respectively, but the Falcons might want to consider dialing up a few more passes against Washington even though that’s clearly not their strength.
The Commanders just held standout rookie RB Dameon Pierce to 8 rushing yards on 10 carries last week, after limiting Philly’s vaunted rushing attack to only 94 yards the previous week.
Falcons vs Commanders Trends
When it comes to the trends, everything is pointing towards a Washington cover. After starting 6-0 against the spread, the Falcons are just 1-4 ATS since and needed a small miracle to cover against the Bears last week.
Washington on the other hand, is trending up. They’re 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games and 4-0-1 ATS with Heinicke as their starter this season.
NFL Top-5 Ranked Run Defenses Per DVOA
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 1 |
| Washington Commanders | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 |
| LA Rams | 5 |
The Commanders have covered in all three instances where they’ve been favored, including last week, and have been a schoolyard bully, beating up on soft opposition. They’re 5-1 against the spread versus teams with a sub. 500 record like the Falcons.
With Young back rushing the passer, and the Commanders continuing to excel versus the run, Atlanta just won’t be able to score enough to keep this game close.
Pick: Washington Commanders -4 (-110), 1 unit
2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 6-7, -1.7 units
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
