Odds of Bill Belichick Retiring Before 2020 Season Set at +700

• The New England Patriots nine-game home playoff winning streak ended with the loss to the Tennessee Titans.
• Bill Belichick will be 68 years old by the start of the 2020 NFL season.
• Expect Belichick to return as the Patriots should once again be a contender – with or without Tom Brady.

The New England Patriots suffered their earliest exit from the playoffs in 10 years. Now they’ll enter an offseason filled with uncertainty as they could endure many changes, including the departure of Tom Brady, who is a free agent. Is Bill Belichick’s return in question too? He hasn’t hinted at retirement, so the oddsmakers think he’s coming back.

Odds Bill Belichick Retires Before 2020 Season

Odds taken Jan. 5.

Patriots Season Ends Earlier Than Usual

We’ve come accustomed to seeing the Patriots make deep playoff runs, so watching them exit in the Wild Card round, especially in a game they were hosting, is unusual. We saw chinks in the armor when they lost at home in Week 17 to the Miami Dolphins, blowing the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.

The chief concern this offseason is the future of quarterback Tom Brady, who is an unrestricted free agent. He has sold his home in the Boston area and his trainer, Alex Guerrero, also sold his home. That combination has opened the door for the possible departure of Brady. Brady will be 43 next season, so it’s possible the Patriots want to move on as well.

Derrick Henry is a bad man.

The NFL rushing leader absolutely dominated New England.

▪️ 35 carries | 204 yards
▪️ 75-yard TD drive by himself
▪️ 3/4 of Titans total yards pic.twitter.com/83WUz0tqsO

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 5, 2020

The other concern is that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who is being courted for a number of head coaching openings, could move on as well. If Brady and McDaniels do, in fact, move on, it is possible that head coach Bill Belichick also decides to wind things down, so that the Patriots have a clean changing of the guard.

Belichick Has Implied He’ll Stay

One of the reasons I wouldn’t bet on Belichick retiring is because he’s all but said he plans to stay. The clandestine head coach rarely offers much insight into what he’s thinking but in October, he did say he’s open to coaching into his 70’s. That’s a big change as back in 2009, the 67-year-old said he’d never coach into his 70’s. He was actually a bigger favorite to retire last season.

Patriots Are An AFC Contender With Or Without Brady

One of the reasons I expect Belichick back is because the Patriots have a roster that’s ready to contend, with or without Brady. Keep in mind that the defense, although it struggled to stop the run in the Wild Card loss to Tennessee, still led the NFL in points-per-game allowed. It was the offense that stumbled.

Sure, the Patriots might lose Brady but how good is he these days? His 53.9 QBR was 17th in the NFL this season and he really faded down the stretch. He completed 55.3% of his passes or less in seven of his final eight games. The 42-year-old still has the magic at times but the stats show he was a replacement-level player.

Belichick explaining to Brady its time to retire. Just think of all the free time you’ll have to spend in “massage parlors” in Miami with Kraft & Trump. It’s a win/win! pic.twitter.com/fUyVly6IqX

— Serena (@TheLiberalVol) January 5, 2020

If Belichick feels that they can find a replacement either in free agency or in the draft, he’ll probably feel like this team can contend regardless of what Brady decides to do.

What’s The Best Bet?

It’s hard to see Belichick retiring at this point in any scenario. Losing McDaniels would hurt a little bit but who knows if he’s leaving and even if he does, Belichick is always prepared to lose a coordinator. As for Brady, he was sluggish this year and will be 43 by the start of next season. It’s likely Belichick has been preparing for his departure too.

Bill Belichick's own future has not been a topic but nobody expects he has any plans but coaching for at least five more years. He needs 43 wins to tie Don Shula (347) for most by a head coach. Belichick (304) is 20 behind George Halas (324) for No. 2 spot.

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) January 5, 2020

But I actually expect the Patriots to get the band back together. Brady struggled but he also had a terrible supporting cast, so they have to share in the blame. If the Pats get him help, they’ll be in position to make one more run. And the nice part is that the defense doesn’t need much attention this offseason.

Brady is a free agent but I can’t see him signing anywhere else where he’ll be in a better position to succeed, especially in the twilight of his career. I expect him back with Belichick next season, so don’t bet on Belichick retiring just yet.