Commanders vs Packers Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Packers are three-point favorites over the Commanders tonight on TNF
• Green Bay is 8-0 ATS at home in Weeks 1 through 3 since 2019, the best mark in the NFL
• Keep reading for my Commanders vs Packers picks and predictions, plus the closing WSH vs GB odds

Top NFC contenders clash tonight on Thursday Night Football as the Washington Commanders (1-0) visit the Green Bay Packers (1-0). Both teams easily covered in Week 1 as home favorites, but it’s Green Bay that’s being labelled a legit Super Bowl threat following their season opener. Online sportsbooks are siding with the Pack tonight in the NFL odds, but the number varies across different books.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from Lambeau Field, with Prime Video providing the broadcast coverage.

Commanders vs Packers Picks & Prediction

• Packers -3 (-109 at BetMGM)

It was hard not to be impressed with Green Bay in Week 1, especially on defense. Micah Parsons’ season debut was a smashing success, as he racked up a sack, three pressures, and played a key role in forcing an errant throw that was intercepted. Parsons only played 45% of the Packers snaps, but when he was on the field, Jared Goff’s time to throw dropped from 3.36 seconds to 2.8 seconds.

The Packers finished seventh in pressure rate in Week 1, and third in sacks. That was despite Parsons playing less than half of the snaps, and with only four blitzes called by Jeff Hafley. Green Bay’s kryptonite last year was their inability to generate pressure without bringing extra bodies. The addition of Parsons allows them to hurry the QB by rushing only four, enabling them to drop more bodies in coverage to make up for an underwhelming secondary.

The Packers held Goff to just 5.8 yards per attempt, and bottled up the Lions vaunted rushing attack as well. Detroit averaged a measly 2.1 yards per carry, and didn’t score a TD until the final minute of the game. Considering the Lions averaged 30+ points per outing last season, Green Bay’s defense looked like a Super Bowl 60 odds winning unit.

Offensively, the Packers started out with their hair on fire, scoring 17 points on their first three drives. They slowed down the pace and put the game away with their rushing attack in the second half, as Josh Jacobs scored for the 10th straight game.

I predict Green Bay will be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and dictate the pace. The Commanders offensive and defensive lines are inferior to the Lions, and Detroit had no answer for the Packers scheme.

There are reasons to be bullish on Washington, and it starts with Jayden Daniels. The sophomore superstar threw for 233 yards and TD, and rushed for 68 yards as well in a convincing win. The Commanders outgained the Giants by 200 yards in Week 1, and held Russell Wilson to 4.0 yards per attempt.

But there’s a big gap in talent between Wilson and Jordan Love. One is in the twilight of his career, while the other is generating NFL MVP odds buzz. Lost in Love’s Week 1 performance was the fact that he played clean football and didn’t record a sack. Teams to not allow a sack in Week 1 are 15-4 against the spread in Week 2 since 2018.

That’s just one of the many trends working in Green Bay’s favor for this matchup. I’m taking those into consideration, but the main reason I’m taking them -3 in my Commanders vs Packers picks, is because of Green Bay’s ability to dominate in the trenches.

Commanders vs Packers Betting Trends

Speaking of trends, you’ll want to consider the following. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 16-3 ATS in the first three weeks of the season since 2019, including 8-0 against the spread at home.

Washington meanwhile, is 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five regular season games, but their lone loss came on a short week, on Thursday Night Football.

The Commanders were incredibly sloppy in Week 1 taking 12 penalties. In the Wild Card era, teams to commit 10+ penalties in their season opener are covering at just a 42% clip in Week 2.

Commanders vs Packers Closing Odds

The best odds we can get on Green Bay -3 is -109 over at BetMGM. Plenty of sportsbooks were still hanging +3.5 on the Commanders as of 4pm ET, but the hook has since disappeared. The lowest odds to buy Washington +3 is -110 at FanDuel.

If you like the over be sure to visit DK, as they’re still sitting on 48.5. Most books have the total at 49, with Bet365 offering the under at -110.

Odds as of 5:45 pm ET, Sept. 11. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on TNF.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, more spread tickets are currently backing Washington (55%), but it’s Green Bay that’s garnering more of the handle (56%). That means those who bet biggest, are riding with the Pack.