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NC State vs Wake Forest Player Props & Same Game Parlay For Thursday College Football

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in College Football

Published:


North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers
Sep 6, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers (3), wide receiver Teddy Hoffmann (12) , and quarterback CJ Bailey (11) celebrate a touchdown during the second half of the game against Virginia Cavaliers at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images
  • NC State faces Wake Forest Thursday night at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem
  • CJ Bailey has scored all three of his rushing touchdowns in high-leverage situations, making him a prime red zone threat
  • See my favorite NC State vs Wake Forest player props and parlay picks for Thursday night below

Thursday night’s ACC rivalry clash between NC State and Wake Forest sets up perfectly for player props. The Wolfpack’s porous defense that surrendered 257 rushing yards to Virginia faces a Wake Forest ground attack led by explosive back Demond Claiborne.

That’s the key matchup I’m targeting. NC State ranks 117th in expected points added per play allowed and gave up 8.0 yards per carry last week. Meanwhile, Claiborne is averaging an absurd 16.3 yards per rush through two games. I’m loading up on Claiborne props in my NC State vs Wake Forest college football player props.

NC State vs Wake Forest Player Props

QuarterbackPassing YardsPassing TDs
CJ Bailey (NCST)239.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114)1.5 (Ov -118 / Un -112)
Robby Ashford (WAKE)189.5 (Ov -114 / Un -114)1.5 (Ov +168 / Un -230)
Running BackRushing YardsAnytime TD
Hollywood Smothers (NCST)93.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)-210
Demond Claiborne (WAKE)80.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)-175
CJ Bailey (NCST)24.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)+100
Robby Ashford (WAKE)43.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)N/A
ReceiverReceiving YardsReceptions
Justin Joly (NCST)45.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)4.5 (Ov +116 / Un -152)
Wesley Grimes (NCST)40.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)3.5 (Ov +130 / Un -170)
Noah Rogers (NCST)30.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)2.5 (Ov -108 / Un -120)
Terrell Anderson (NCST)30.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)2.5 (Ov -138 / Un +106)
Carlos Hernandez (WAKE)34.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)3.5 (Ov +116 / Un -152)
Sterling Berkhalter (WAKE)32.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)2.5 (Ov +112 / Un -146)
Chris Barnes (WAKE)37.5 (Ov -112 / Un -112)3.5 (Ov +144 / Un -190)

The most glaring mismatch shows up in Demond Claiborne’s rushing prop at just 80.5 yards. He torched the Wolfpack for 136 yards in this same matchup last season. Meanwhile, CJ Bailey’s anytime touchdown at -110 offers tremendous value for a quarterback who’s found the end zone three times on just 13 carries.

Hollywood Smothers sits at 93.5 rushing yards after exploding for 140 against Virginia. But Wake Forest’s run defense has been stout, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. That creates an interesting contrast with Claiborne facing NC State’s soft front.

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Odds as of September 11th at FanDuel. Browse the top sports betting app for Thursday CFB.

If you just want a standard bet on this game, check out our NC State vs Wake Forest prediction.

NC State vs Wake Forest Prop Pick #1: Demond Claiborne Over 80.5 Rushing Yards

This line is criminal for a back who just ripped off 193 yards on 10 carries. Yes, that was against Western Carolina, but Claiborne’s explosiveness translates against Power Five competition too. He gashed NC State for 136 yards last season and enters averaging 16.3 yards per carry.

The matchup couldn’t be worse for NC State. They just surrendered 257 rushing yards to Virginia at 8.0 yards per pop. Virginia’s J’Mari Taylor torched them for three rushing touchdowns. The Wolfpack rank 117th in expected points added per play allowed and have shown zero ability to tackle in space.

NC State Wolfpack 2025 Run Defense

StatTotal
Rush Yds Allowed / Game143.5
Yards Per Carry Allowed4.7
EPA Per Rush Allowed-0.06 (73rd nationally)

Claiborne has hit this number in 60% of games with double-digit touches dating back to last season. He’s getting those touches, as Wake ran 78 times in their first two games. With NC State’s defense allowing 14 conversions on 19 third downs last week, Wake should sustain drives and keep feeding their best playmaker.

  • Demond Claiborne Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

NC State vs Wake Forest Prop Pick #2: CJ Bailey Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Bailey doesn’t run much between the 20s, but he’s money in the red zone. All three of his rushing touchdowns have come with the game within one possession. Two came inside the 10-yard line against Virginia last week.

This projects as another tight game with NC State laying just 7 points. Bailey’s mobility becomes NC State’s best weapon near the goal line, especially on broken plays or designed QB runs. The sophomore has scored on 23% of his rushing attempts this season. That’s an unsustainable rate that simply speaks to his red zone usage.

YouTube video

Wake Forest has actually defended well this season, but their competition (Kennesaw State and Western Carolina) makes those stats meaningless. Against real offenses, they’ll struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks. NC State should reach the red zone at least three times, giving Bailey multiple touchdown opportunities.

  • CJ Bailey Anytime Touchdown (-110 at FanDuel)

NC State vs Wake Forest Parlay Picks

Same-game parlays offer the best value when you find correlated outcomes. I’m combining my two favorite props with Wake Forest keeping this game close to create a +425 NC State vs Wake Forest same-game parlay.

PicksOdds
Demond Claiborne Over 80.5 Rushing Yards-112
CJ Bailey Anytime TD-110
Wake Forest +7-105
TOTAL NCST VS WAKE SGP ODDS+425

NC State vs Wake Forest Parlay Analysis

This parlay captures how Wake Forest keeps pace in a competitive ACC rivalry game. Claiborne’s explosive rushing attack helps Wake control the clock and stay within the number. That forces NC State into more red zone trips where Bailey uses his legs to score.

The correlation works perfectly here. If Claiborne is gashing NC State’s defense, Wake Forest stays competitive and covers the touchdown spread. And in a close game, Bailey’s red zone rushing becomes even more critical for the Wolfpack.

NC State is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites. Thursday home dogs in games 2-4 are 11-0-1 ATS. Those trends support Wake Forest hanging around, which sets up our correlated parlay perfectly.

  • NC State vs Wake Forest Parlay: Claiborne Over 80.5 Rush Yards, Bailey Anytime TD, Wake Forest +7 (+425)
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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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