Commanders vs Chiefs Picks & Closing Odds

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point favorites vs the Washington Commanders on MNF
• Washington QB Jayden Daniels (hamstring) will not play
• Keep reading for my Commanders vs Chiefs picks and predictions, plus closing odds

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The Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, 4-3-0 ATS) are rolling, seeking their fifth win in six games when they host the Washington Commanders (3-4, 3-4-0 ATS) on Monday Night Football. 

The big news for this one is Washington’s dynamic second-year pivot Jayden Daniels (hamstring) is out, replaced by veteran Marcus Mariota. This leaves the Chiefs as hefty double-digit favorites in the Week 9 Monday Night Football odds.

Kickoff is set for 8:15pm ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with ABC carrying the broadcast.

Commanders vs Chiefs Picks & Prediction

• Chiefs -10 (-110 at BetMGM)

Normally, with a line this high, I’d lean on the underdog.

Marcus Mariota would probably rank above average as a backup, and he’ll have both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back in the lineup.

MARIOTA. DEEBO. TD.

WASvsATL on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/VcvP6C7px5

— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025

However, this is not just another opponent; it’s the Kansas City Chiefs in what amounts to their full offensive arsenal (minus the offensive line injuries).

This team has scored at least 28 points in four straight games, and with all the pieces in place, the field looks wider, and there aren’t enough defenders to cover all that space created by KC’s receiving group.

And Reid is looking for ways to get burners Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy into space and in 1-on-1’s, allowing Hollywood Brown to move around the formation, while Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster work in the short and intermediate areas.

Even at a modest 4-3 on the season, the Chiefs have moved to betting favorites in the 2026 Super Bowl odds.

Washington isn’t equipped defensively to match the Chiefs, as they’re 26^th in passing yards allowed per game at 238.3.

Rashee Rice has a touchdown in his first game back

LVvsKC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/oueOtDSk2I

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

A healthy Daniels could play the equalizer here, as his ability to create in the scheme and off script could give Washington a fighting chance in a shootout, but that’s not possible Monday.

Kansas City’s rush defense is only allowing 105.7 yards per game, and their pass D is third overall, surrendering a mere 174.6 yards.

The Chiefs should have no trouble marching up and down the field, and sending the Commanders home with a third straight loss, this one likely in blowout fashion.

Commanders vs Chiefs Closing Lines

Roughly two hours before kickoff, the Chiefs are extremely short -649 moneyline favorites, while the Commanders are as long as +500. The total is a short range, from 47.5 at FanDuel to 48.5 at DraftKings.

The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

Commanders vs Chiefs Line Movement

Obviously, the loss of Daniels alters a lot, both on the field on the betting lines. Consider the Week 8 opening lines, which had KC as modest 6.5-point home favorites. This line moved as high as 13 points during the week, settling in mostly at 10.5 across most sports books.

That’s likely because the Chiefs offensive line is dinged up, with tackle Josh Simmons (personal) not available Monday, and guard Trey Smith (back) doubtful.

The moneyline has also seen some movement, with KC as short as -900 favorites, before coming landing in the -650 range.

The public likes the Chiefs and the Over on Monday Night Football 👀 pic.twitter.com/8DTfYDOXNg

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) October 27, 2025

The Commanders had been as long as +600, but have since moved to the +475 range with hours before kickoff. The total has stayed fairly consistent over the last week, locking in mostly at 47.5 points, and jockeying a point in either direction. Depending on where you look, those possibilities all still exist.

The NFL public betting percentages are going heavy on KC to win outright, with both 95% of the bets and money on the Chiefs.

They’re also the public’s choice on the spread, with 70% of the bets and 66% of the money on a KC -10 spread. Bettor backing the Commanders are hitting the +11.5 line, with 34% of the bets and 34% of the money on Washington.

The total is leaning Over, with 62% of bettors banging the Over, and getting 66% of the money as well.

WAS vs KC Betting Trends

The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games against the Commanders. They are also 7-0 as a betting favorite of at least seven points, but just 1-6-0 against the spread.

Over the last five games, Kansas City is 4-1-0 ATS, and have covered the spread in all three home games this season.

The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games against AFC opponents, though they are just 1-6-0 ATS in their last seven on the road.

Eight of the Commanders’ last nine games against AFC opponents have cashed the Over.

Teams favored by at least seven points are 1-5-0 ATS and 3-3 outright in primetime this season.