Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Bills are 12.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football
• Buffalo will be without its top pass rusher Ed Oliver, and defensive leader Matt Milano
• See below for my Dolphins vs Bills picks and predictions, plus the closing MIA vs BUF odds

On paper, tonight’s Miami Dolphins (0-2, 0-1 away) versus Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-0 home) matchup looks like a potential bloodbath. Miami is one of the most dysfunctional teams in football, while Buffalo is the favorite in the Super Bowl odds. Yet, NFL games rarely play out as expected. The Bills are 12.5-point favorites in the current NFL odds, but I’d be hesitant about laying that many points, even with a juggernaut.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY, with Prime Video providing the broadcast coverage.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

• Dolphins +12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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I’m not ready to predict a Miami upset victory, but I do think they cover the spread. Yes, they’re a mess defensively, but offensively there are reasons to be optimistic.

Let’s start with the Buffalo injury situation. Ed Oliver, the team’s top pass rusher and the league’s highest graded interior defensive lineman is out. To make matters worse, so is Matt Milano, the heart and soul of the Bills defense. Milano is the defensive signal caller and by far their best coverage backer.

Without Oliver, Tua Tagovailoa should have more time to operate in the pocket, while Milano’s absence gives De’Von Achane a massive advantage in the passing game. Achane leads all RB’s through two weeks in targets and receptions, and had 7+ catches in both meetings versus Buffalo last season.

Tua meanwhile, looked much better last week than in his season debut. He threw for 315 yards and 2 TD against New England, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. Baltimore’s speedy receivers abused the weak Bills corners in Week 1, and Miami would be wise to replicate that strategy with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, two of the fast wideouts in the NFL.

The opportunity is also there for the Fins to find success rushing the ball. Buffalo’s defense ranks last in yards before contact per rushing attempt, a metric that will have to improve for them to stay atop the Super Bowl 60 odds.

On the other side of the ball, there’s no doubting the advantage the Bills have. Miami is arguably the worst defense in the NFL. They rank last in yards and points per drive, while no team has allowed a higher third down conversion rate.

Buffalo has put up 30+ points in back-to-back outings, and are a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone. It’s hard to imagine the Bills not reaching 30 points again tonight, but I still think their defensive injuries, plus Miami’s improved offense will keep this game within two touchdowns.

Looking for more Dolphins vs Bills plays? Check out the following:

• Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay
• Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Trends

As for the trends, they’re on board with backing the Dolphins. Underdogs in Week 3 who are 0-2 against the spread have historically been a great bet versus teams that covered in Weeks 1 and 2. The ‘dog in this situation is covering at 61% clip since 2003. Also working in Miami’s favor is the fact that 10+ point underdogs in divisional games have covered 59% of the time over the last three seasons.

Dolphins vs Bills Closing Odds

The best odds we can get on Miami -12.5 is -108 on DraftKings. A bunch of books have moved the line to -11.5, so don’t wait to grab the Fins. Caesars is offering the best payout on Miami to pull off the outright upset at +600, while you’ll want to shop around if you’re placing a bet on the total.

If you like the under, visit FanDuel or Bet365 who are hanging a 50.5 at -110 odds. If you’re on the over log on to DK, as they’re offering the most favorable price on 50.5 at -107 odds.

Odds as of 5:30 pm ET, Sept. 18. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on Dolphins vs Bills.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, sportsbooks are being flooded with under tickets, as that side of the total is drawing 81% of the wagers.