Falcons vs 49ers Closing Odds & Expert Picks for MNF

• Winners of two straight, the Atlanta Falcons visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football in Week 7
• The 49ers will have both Juaun Jennings and George Kittel in the lineup tonight
• See the closing Falcons vs 49ers odds and betting lines, plus my ATL vs SF picks

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U) and San Francisco 49ers (4-2, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U) meet in a critical midseason NFC battle on Monday Night Football in Week 7. The Niners are half-a-game back of the lead in the West, while the Falcons are 1.5 off the pace in the South. Both are right in the heart of a Wild-Card race that includes seven teams at either 4-2 or 3-2.

Riddled by injuries once again this season, the 49ers will be missing at least a trio of key starters on MNF: QB Brock Purdy, WR2 Ricky Pearsall, and defensive anchor Fred Warner. But the home team is still a slight favorite in the Falcons vs 49ers closing odds.

Closing Odds for Falcons vs 49ers on MNF

Roughly two hours before kickoff, the best 49ers moneyline is -110 at FanDuel (which lists the game as a pick’em). Bettors can get the Falcons as long as +100 at bet365. The point spread ranges from 49ers -1.0 (-115) at bet365 to +1.5 (-120) at FanDuel.

The game toal is 46.5 across the board with basically every book offering -110 odds both ways.

Odds commentary as of 5:15 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds shift before kickoff.

The opening Week 7 odds listed San Francisco as a three-point favorite and -164 on the moneyline, meaning the odds have shifted considerably in Atlanta’s favor over the course of the week. The injury to Warner (ankle), who was placed on IR on Saturday, is a big part of the movement. Already missing top pass rusher Nick Bosa, the Niners now have to deal with the absence of a four-time First-Team All-Pro (2020, 2022, 2023, 2024).

The good news for San Francisco is that tight end George Kittel is slated to play his first game since Week 1, while oft-injured WR1 Jauan Jennings will play his second straight game.

ATL Falcons vs SF 49ers Expert Picks

• Over 45.5 (-105)
• Bijan Robinson over 75.5 rushing yards (-)

My two favorite Falcons vs 49ers picks tonight are the over on a total that’s been bet down to 45.5 and Bijan Robinson to go over 75.5 rushing yards against a depleted San Francisco defense.

Pick #1: Robinson Over 75.5 Rushing Yards

Given the Falcons’ commitment to the run and the 49ers’ recent struggles in that area, I expect Atlanta’s RB1 to have another productive day on the ground. Robinson is coming off a career-best 170-yard rushing performance in Atlanta’s Week 6 upset win over Buffalo (24-14), which included a game-breaking 81-yard TD.

He’s averaged 17.8 rushing attempts per game over the last four and is cranking out 6.5 YPC. If he keeps those averages up, he’ll pound out another 116 rushing yards tonight. And there’s little reason to think the San Francisco defense will be able to bottle him up.

The 49ers sit 21st in rush defense at PFF and are now without All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner. Unless San Francisco sells out to stop the run, Robinson should find space on a regular basis. The recent improvements from sophomore QB Michael Penix Jr will make it difficult to devote too many resources to the ground game. Penix has amassed 563 passing yards over the last two weeks alone, throwing for three TDs and one pick. Drake London has posted back-to-back 100-yard games and is blossoming into one of the NFL’s premier receivers.

Pick #2: Over 45.5 Points

The 49ers have been a near lock to hit the over after a loss recently, going 10-1 O/U in their last 11 games following a defeat. Mac Jones has proven plenty capable of piloting the Niner offense in Brock Purdy’s absence, and he’ll have his strongest supporting cast to date with the return of Kittel.

As I already touched on above, I expect the Falcons offense to find plenty of success against an injury-riddled San Francisco defense. A Robinson-centric run-heavy approach could take plenty of time off the clock, but one of these teams will be playing from behind and both QBs have the weapons to move the ball.

Looking for more ATL/SF picks to tail? Check out:

• John Hyslop’s +121 Falcons vs 49ers same-game parlay
• Michael Harrison’s three favorite Falcons vs 49ers player props to bet