Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds (SNF)

• Top-ten picks from the 2024 draft meet when Michael Penix Jr and the Falcons visit JJ McCarthy and the Vikings on SNF
• The Vikings have been dominant at home, going 8-1 in their last nine and winning five in a row as home favorites
• Below, see my Falcons vs Vikings picks and predictions, plus the closing Vikings/Falcons odds for Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football in Week 2 pits two franchises turning the page with young signal-callers: JJ McCarthy leads the Minnesota Vikings (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U) against Michael Penix Jr and the Atlanta Falcons (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U) at 7:20 pm CT/8:20 pm ET at US Bank Stadium.

After a shaky start, McCarthy orchestrated a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback at Chicago in Week 1 (27-24). He finished with just 143 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on 65% passing, but showcased the clutch gene Kevin McConnell was confident in when he drafted the Michigan product 10th overall in 2024.

Penix Jr had a more statistically productive debut in a losing effort versus Tampa Bay (23-20), throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown with a 64.3% completion rate. While he demonstrated poise and accuracy, his offense stalled in the red zone. This matchup presents a massive test for the young Falcons quarterback, who must navigate one of the league’s loudest environments against a defense known for its complex blitz packages.

Below, I have set out my favorite Falcons vs Vikings picks and data-driven predictions, plus the closing ATL vs MIN odds for Sunday Night Football.

Falcons vs Vikings Picks & Prediction

• ATS: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-105)
• Player Prop: Justin Jefferson over 5.5 receptions (-120)

This primetime matchup is defined by one key factor: Minnesota Vikings’ overwhelming home-field advantage against a talented-but-inexperienced Atlanta signal caller.

While Michael Penix Jr has already shown promise in his six career games, the environment at US Bank Stadium is a massive variable that heavily favors the home team. The crowd noise is a legitimate weapon that disrupts offensive communication and often leads to pre-snap penalties and wasted timeouts, a challenge that is amplified for a sophomore quarterback making just his second career road start.

Beyond the intangibles, the on-field matchups lean Minnesota’s way. The Vikings’ rushing attack, which gained 120 yards in Week 1, faces a Falcon run defense that has historically been vulnerable. Establishing the run will be critical to easing the pressure on McCarthy and setting up play-action passes to Justin Jefferson.

Defensively, the Vikings will unleash a variety of pressures designed to rattle Penix Jr and force him into mistakes. The Falcons’ inability to cover the spread in their last six games as an underdog (0-6 ATS) and their last five road games (0-5 ATS) cannot be ignored. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been a covering machine at home, going 4-1 ATS in their last five as home favorites. Trust the trends and the more complete team playing in a fortress.

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Closing Odds

As of __ pm ET, the best Falcons moneyline was +150 at DraftKings, while the best Vikings moneyline was -165 at BetMGM. Against the spread, bet365 had the Vikings -3 at -110. DraftKings had Atlanta +3.5 at -115. The total ranged from 44.5 to 45.0. ESPN Bet was offering over 44.5 at -105 odds. BetMGM had U 45.0 at -110. The interactive table, above, will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

ATL vs MIN Odds Movement

The betting line for this contest has seen significant movement in favor of the Falcons. Minnesota opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the spread has since been bet down by at least a full point (1.5 at some books). Similarly, the moneyline opened with the Vikings at -225 and has moved as far as -165.

The shift suggests that while the public may be high on Minnesota after a comeback win, sharper bettors see value in Atlanta keeping the game within a field goal. The line moving from -4.5 to the key number of -3.5 is a classic sign of professional money influencing the market, potentially buying into the talent of Atlanta’s offense or questioning McCarthy’s ability to perform consistently for a full game.

ATL vs MIN Public-Betting Splits for Sunday Night Football

The current NFL public betting percentages for Sunday Night Football show an ostensible sharp-vs-public split on the moneyline. Atlanta is only getting 12% of moneyline wagers, but those 12% of bets account for 55% of the moneyline handle. The ATS splits show a similar divide: Atlanta is getting 78% of ATS handle on just 26% of the ATS tickets.

The public and sharps seem to be aligned on the total: 94% of handle and 93% of wagers are currently on the under.

Bookmark SBD’s Sunday Night Football odds page to see the SNF betting lines throughout the season.